COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
"In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability. Without the self-awareness of metacognition, people cannot objectively evaluate their competence or incompetence.[1]"
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect
sorry, wikipedia, but you get the jist, ...I hope ..but I doubt it...
I've never dunning-krugered anyone before, its pretty low brow shit I reckon. but when a man that cannot hold two ideas in his head at the same time starts throwing it around at everyone, well, its time to nip that shit in the bud
I read the article and I listened to what the doctor had to say and despite what you and the journalist continue to do in terms of banging the one drum endlessly, I thought what the doctor said had merit and was worth exploring further, based on my own thoughts. This guy does not come across as a crackpot or quack or charlatan to me. He appears to be a thoughtful, educated, balanced and knowledgeable man frustrated at the single line of questioning he was subjected to without being paid the courtesy or respect he deserved.
Little known fact Vic, I am actually blind in one eye but unlike you, I'm not one-eyed. I am open to the views and opinions of others but people like you, the moral authority, the link poster, the shouter, the empty vessel- convince me in your own words, your own thoughts why the doctor is wrong.
HCQ Rebels...
2005 Hydroxy Chloroquine has been #1 Drug to ward off Coronaviruses
Kinda like a force shield from Zombies in a salt/chlorine Pool. (No! Not a cure!)
Long Term Health Risk - Dries out yer eyes & brain > (Whacko Jacko / Trump)
https://news.bbc.co.uk/media/images/38487000/jpg/_38487075_jackson_baby3...
Trump went orange from carrot juice to grow back his hair+ Jacko was born Black.
Trump swallows HCQ & Jacko injected HCQ to pass off as normal white trash! (Fail!)
You'll note Trump's white patched red sore eyes > Jacko's Sunnies.
Ivanka changes eye colour match Dad's eyes for Republican Conferences etc..
While we're all surrounded by the virus, then HCQ demand will outstrip supply.
Govt/s banned Masks to Rural Firefighters + public + HCQ then stockpiled both.
Recent HC tests are all for front line Heath crews only.
6,227 doctors Poll from 30 nations said H/CQ was most effective Covid-19 drug.
https://fullfact.org/health/covid-19-hydroxychloroquine-chloroquine-trea...
Dexamethasone (Respiratory Support) 3% less death Rate for Ventilator Patients.
Remdesivir (Hep C + Ebola) (Reduces 4days recovery -on compassionate grounds
May 2020 (Update) Oz Covid-19 Drugs
(Diprivan Brand only) : Alfentanil, Dexmedetomidine, Fentanyl, Propofol
(Others): (Midazolam, Morphene) Do not mix with > Propofol
https://www.shpa.org.au/sites/default/files/uploaded-content/field_f_con...
29 May 120 Researchers & Med Pros angry at WHO ban on HCQ trials.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/covid-19-surgisphere-hydro...
2 July Of 2,541 patients HCQ Deaths 13% (vs) Without 26.4% Deaths.
https://www.henryford.com/news/2020/07/hydro-treatment-study
7 Aug -Libs want Dan jailed for 25 years for DOC >blocking frontline HCQ.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-07/coronacheck-craig-kelly-daniel-an...
21 Aug Trump heralds Victorian HCQ Study
https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/coronavirus/victorian-trial-of-hydroxyc...
Frontline Staff know only that HCQ is best coronavirus protection for 15 years.
Clearly they want WHO to fuck off or take their shift for them! Simple as that!
WHO's mates clearly want these cheap frontline drugs banned.
WHO ordered Govts to take away their HCQ apart from Hot Spot Staff trials.
Meanwhile over here we have that slippery sypkan’s total response to my detailed analysis of the US 2016 presidential election which included the exact vote margins in critical states and how they influenced the electoral college, to demonstrate that his assertion that the Russian trolls had no influence on the result of the election was complete bollocks.
“so ya got nothing?
to assert your assertions…”
And and and…..posts a video with the headline
“Yale Epidemiologist Insists, Against Evidence, Hydroxychloroquin Works”
….as evidence that hydroxychloroquin works. Comedy gold! Here I am laughing and grinning from ear to ear… and it’s all free folks. No subscription necessary. Watch the clowns in live action or replay!
Grinning from ear to ear you say Blowie?
Don't you be doing yourself a mischief now.
There's only one Blowie, Andy.
Thank fuck.
Detailed analysis ?
More resurch , bloke ?
You did nothing more than confuse cause with correlation again.
The Russians controlled the election....lol ! That’s some sweet conspiracy stupidity bloke !
Even your desperate , desperate , desperate urge to state with certainty that Russia determined the outcome of the election is tempered by that final , tiny spark of reality hidden in the back quarter of your little rat mind , which quietly reminds you that to say this out loud is to declare yourself unhinged.
Go on mate ....say it . Say out loud what even the most hardened of fringe lunatics refuse to say. Be that freak ! You know you want to.
This DSDS bloke has got to be blowin. He's obsessed with immigration, angry, text tinged with violence, personal abuse, loose with the truth, pushes conspiracy theories, uses a bunch of words like neo-liberalism neo-socialist etc. Welcome back blowin.
Yeh he managed to keep his cool for a while but he can't cope when the truth gets in the way of his various fantasies. He would probably even deny that China saved our arse in world war2.
blowfly, there's big cash prize* for the first person SDSD/ blowin threatens with violence.
*not actual cash, but huge kudos is on offer.
Fuck boys took ya time!
Seeing as the 'Sweet, Sweet Dude' is Blowie, no ifs, ands, or buts (took what? a week for him to burst through his ciggie paper-thin veneer?), does he really expect us all to forget his previous form on here??
The bullshit...the bog standard bigotry...the creepy psychological projection...the hysteria...the boozy breakdowns...the farcical 'handbags-at-dawn' threats...the blood, sweat, and tears?
Really??
Are we all as booze addled in the bonce department as poor ol' Blowie?
Yeah, naaaaah.
Of course not (well, the majority of us).
He's as delusional as Lauren Southern!
And about as dinky di Aussie as well.
Hahah! Stu must be stoked! Ben too!
And we can all see Sepp is gushing!
Ew!
At least he's got his own Chi-na thread...
'cos this one has been kicked waaaay out into the long grass.
We all have our moments some weirder than others but personally I thought Blowie made some excellent contributions along the way.
https://m.
IMHO Blowin has brought possibly more to these forums than anyone, he has started al kinds of interesting threads and shared countless interesting stories or thoughts, be it surfing, traveling, fishing, or just something out of the box.
Yeah sure he can go on about China too much or just argue for the sake of it at times, but no ones perfect and we all have our pet topics we annoy people with.
Anyway if Blowin is DudeSweetDudeSweet, mate that's a pretty shitty name but welcome back.
Yeah well Blowin was the counter balance to you blokes ,went off the rails a bit at times but so do you guys ,you all need to tone it down abit to be fair.
"Lauren Southern"
Thanks for the reminder i saw she is active again and in Australia, i think i saw she has a new Docco too, will have to check it out.
What Simba said.
I'd like to know what you anti-immigrant types think about Lauren Southern getting a visa to live and work in Australia and flying in from a Covid hotspot in the middle of a pandemic.
A racist tool trying to reinvent and resurrect without anyone noticing or questioning.
With a little coterie of dimwits turning a blind eye and/or in total concurrence.
And that also just 'use' said racist tool in order to get some of their own frustrated dirty water off their chests.
Sound familiar?
On here??
Yikes!
racist? imports? visas? concerns?
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1314066695456958&id=50068992...
seems not??
yikes!
DudeSweetDudeSweet...(wiki: A swellnet Blowin')
re: Toot Sweet Toot Sweet (wiki: A blowie treat for swellnet trolls )
"Well, here's something new on the scene
tweet-able treats a bonbon to blow on at last can be found."
Blowie tweeted the family recipe to DudeSweetDudeSweet
Acts like Kryptonite...eating away at arch nemesis factotum's thought bubbles.
tbb: [ Apology ] To Jimmy Olsen for stealing his scoop.
sypkan
Interesting video, not surprised though attitudes to black people in Indonesia are similar (an advert like that wouldn't rise eyebrows at all in Indo)
Its really just different groups of people/cultures etc have different ideas, standards etc and even when they do evolve towards a similar goal point they do it at different rates.
@Zen if you are reading, in general how are attitudes to very dark skin people in Japan?
"I'd like to know what you anti-immigrant types think about Lauren Southern getting a visa to live and work in Australia and flying in from a Covid hotspot in the middle of a pandemic."
Im not sure who is anti-imigration here, pretty much seems everyone believes immigration has been to high in the past, but i think most of us dont have an issue with immigration or multiculturalism etc.
To be honest i was surprised to learn she was in Aust, not sure how long ago she arrived, guessing before things got tighter, but im sure she quarantined and was tested.
There really shouldn't be an issue with intentional arrivals if the quarantine system is managed properly, but i guess there is a limit to how many people can be managed at once..
Thanks for linking to that fb video Sypkan. Incredible.
Here it is on youtube if you don't have fb.
"Zen if you are reading, in general how are attitudes to very dark skin people in Japan?"
Indo, I live in a small town/barely city in Japan so can't speak on behalf of the country. But, to answer your question, i'd say the same as any person who's not Japanese- with mild suspicion and thinly veiled contempt.
Btw, an African-American bloke introduced me to my wife.
Anyway, we should move on- racism is so 1980. I'm getting a dunny replaced today and I'm building a new deck. Plus I climbed a mountain last weekend. It's all happening.
"Anti-immigrant types"
More stupid absolutism from the regressively woke, designed to shut down a very reasonable and totally necessary discussion.
I've seen a shit load of comments about immigrants taking Aussie jobs, immigrants pushing up house prices, immigration keeping wages down, and the need to reduce immigration when employment numbers are high.
Surely if your theories stack up, Southern is taking a job of some local true blue Aussie grifter, making it hard for Aussie grifters to make a living, and driving up rent or housing prices. Not to mention she flew in during a pandemic.
Come on blokes, stand up and say this is unacceptable, or are certain types of immigrants (you know the ones) that are acceptable?
Who the fuck is Lauren Southern and why should I care?
Seems like yet another red herring to back up the lame trope that if you're concerned about population growth you're a racist.
She sounds like a self-promoting bullshit artist and a grub.
How is this relevant to a discussion about the problems of infinite population growth?
And how does population increase not affect house prices?
Yes it's a nuanced discussion (something that a lot of people on this site find it hard to deal with, amiright?) including cost of finance and government incentives but how is there any doubt that population increase vis a vis supply and demand plays a substantial part?
What's it gotta do with COVID-19?
(And TBB, haha, fuck! What a woeful fuckin' film! Dude, where's my sense of humour? Says it all. He shoulda just went with Dumb And Dumber To! And how about some of this true blue Aussie 'toot sweet'?)
Yeah , I chose an unlikely name and altered my writing style so I could avoid having some queer stalker trailing me around the site like I used to.
Luckily you were too stupid to figure it out till someone smarter told you . Now I’m back to square one and unable to comment on any thread , on any topic within you sniveling behind me hoping for some attention.
That's a pretty healthy sized viral segue from factotum.
No-one has suggested that immigration does not have an effect on house prices but the reality is that it is only responsible for about 1/7th of the rise. If you want cheaper homes you need a government with a housing policy aiming to achieve that and the ability to develop appropriate strategies. Hint: It ain't the COALition.
“……..we find that an immigrant inflow of 1% of a postcode's population raises housing prices by around 0.9% per year. As a result, Australian housing prices would have been around 1.1% lower per annum had there been no immigration. The size of this effect is broadly consistent with that found for other countries.”
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338118972_The_Impact_of_Immigra...
“ Over the past 30 years, Australian housing prices have increased on average by 7¼ per cent per year ……….”
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2015/sep/3.html
What dross. Hand picking one model- based ( ie based on zero fact ) outcome which suits your ideology. It’s a pity for your argument that the heads of the big four banks , the RBA , the government and every real estate based industry disagrees with your ludicrous position. Why do you think they’re desperate to reopen the human-spewing immigration floodgates ?
Pretty much every economist and Ponzi shill has come out and publicly disagreed with you now that they are desperate in the face of looming reality. The days of pretending that hundreds of thousands of extra people increasing demand for property are long gone . It’s only the throwbacks such as yourself who now commit to the laughable denial.
Put that idea in with the “ Ill claim anything to stay woke “ opinion that hundreds of thousands of extra people into Australia don’t have a detrimental effect on the environment .
Don’t take my word for it , here’s “ Highrise “ Harry Triguboff : property development billionaire , been in the game for decades, with his opinion on his real estate development company’s future :
“The future is very grim. We cannot survive without people — the migrants — coming to this country,” Triguboff says. “It is rubbish. We have never had these types of problems before.“
Wait.....you want me to believe the ideological and evidence- free claim of a retired school teacher over the learned wisdom of Australia’s largest private developer ? Classic.
Or
There’s the indirect demand on houses , with its associated upwards drive , of the thousands of investors predicting returns based on the same mass immigration. Here’s CoreLogic: “The regions with large accumulations in rental stock reflect many of the pain points that have come with the COVID-19 downturn, particularly more recent commentary which has highlighted the gaping hole in housing demand because of international border closures.“
Spot on blowfly.
But imaging a brain dead redneck at an auction. They would be bidding against multiple people who are going to negatively gear the house for sale to reduce their taxable income. Old mate sees a negative gearer with an asian appearance and goes home crying about immigrants pushing up house prices. That's how some people think. Oh and welcome back blowin.
What was everyone's favourite DSDS / blowin moment? I'm torn between the following: The time he said South Koreans should be rounded up for immediate deportation, and then claimed that wasn't racist, or the Aboriginal hate crime episode. Remember that one, where an altercation between an aboriginal man and a white victim was racial based. When blowin couldn't back up his bullshit he claimed there was covered up in the courts, by the journos, the lawyers and even the victim's family who were witnesses. Ah good times from old mate blowin.
Here’s Shane Oliver - head economist at AMP - directly fingering mass immigration led population increase for house price rises.
https://www.ampcapital.com/au/en/insights-hub/articles/2020/august/three...
Not sure how anyone, particularly a layman ex- schoolteacher with zero economic credentials can publicly argue against the evidence based wisdom of the real estate industry’s most credible experts ?
Just goes to show the depths some some people will plumb to maintain an ideological position , irrespective of the overwhelming evidence of proven reality .
“ Rather the basic problem has been a surge in population growth from mid-last decade ......”
You think these economists are red- necks watching Asian looking bidders at auctions ? Quite an embarrassing look for you boys. Don’t imagine you’ll pause to reconsider whether you e been wrong or not though . Just push on with the falsehoods and accusations .
As the graph below (from your link) shows, the problem is not population growth per se but the fact that governments have not acted to proportionately increase the supply of housing. Yes we know you hate immigration but in the end, that is the policy that has been in place. You are free to exercise your democratic right to campaign against immigration but it is cheating to suggest that immigration automatically creates an increase in housing costs when poor policy is the main problem. If governments allow that level of immigration their housing policy should supply an appropriate increase in housing.
Wow DSDS, the change in name hasn't made you any smarter. Did you even read the link you posted?
Nobody denies immigration has an impact on housing affordability, but as shown in the article you linked, it's only one of many many factors. land taxes, negative gearing, land banking, lack of supply, lack of infrastructure, low wage growth, economic ill health etc etc etc etc, but good old mate blowin only sees one factor. Those damn immigrants.
Congrats sypkan, you're no longer the biggest idiot on this forum since blowin returned.
Read the whole article idiot.
"What's it gotta do with COVID-19?"
another own goal, from viclocal, that's what
you really need better material
or at a minimum, better minions
...maybe competence over slave labor?
against the wider ideological principles, but maybe something worth considering...
Blindly ....so you are suggesting that , rather than lower immigration levels , we should just build and build until every single piece of environment is degraded and fauna habitat destroyed ?
That’s really your choice if it comes down to reducing immigration or destroying the habitat and liveability of this land ? If
I can see there’s no reason involved at your end. Pointless arguing into a vacuum of logic . You seem to need to destroy our home in order to continuously reinforce an image of accepting multitudes of people. If that’s the only way you think we can convey tolerance of diversity we are screwed. You’d kill us and every lifeform in Australia just to show how woke you are.
Seriously blowin, very few people would object to your point that over-population is a problem in terms of ecological sustainability. The problem is your years of racism on this site means people correctly write off your opinions because they've come from a clown with a history of hard core bigotry. You made your bed DSDS.
Vic,
it's actually not correct to write off what someone says on the basis of what they've previously said. That would be to commit the genetic fallacy (disregarding information on the basis of where it came from rather than on the merit of that information -- it's possible to come to the right conclusion by a wrong route).
Surely you can accept the premise that unending population growth is not sustainable and still reject other stuff blowin says?
if I see racism Im gonna...
the standard you walk past...
I won't let bigots...
If I see bullshit...
The standard you walk past...
I worked against white...
If I see bullshit...
He's a racist, I won't....
....reputable sources ...RWNJ .....dumb ....moron ...stupid ....bigot ....hate speexh .... FOX news ....murdoch.... stupid ....dumb ...murdoch ...
take the afternoon off viclocal
please!
"Surely you can accept the premise that unending population growth is not sustainable and still reject other stuff blowin says?"
That's what I thought I did. Pops.
Pops, you haven't been around that long on this forum. Virtually everything DSDS / blowin writes is either racist or flat out wrong, or both. He will make up stats, and then when people post the correct figures, he still won't admit it and then he calls them nasty names. He even threatens violence on occasions. That's why people write him off.
Serious question sypkan. It's a yes / no question so it only requires a one word answer.
When blowin says South Koreans should be rounded up for immediate deportation, is that racist?
Vic Local , Blindboy and Facto are the reason I gave Swellnet a miss for a while. Vic Local is boringly stupid , Blindboy is a bit insane and Facto has some queer stalker thing going on . None of which are pleasant and they all make a decent discussion impossible.
Such a shame . If only there was more Pops and less Vic Locals .
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia