Interesting stuff
Great, accurate modelling by the Burnet Institute indicating when and how big the likely peak in cases would be. This was run on the 27th of August..
Looks like the peak is mid-September.
I really like that way of plotting the uncertainty range (the fuzzy line). Very nice.
Looks suspiciously like the model's forcing to a gaussian function? (of course, I don't know anywhere near enough about infectious diseases to know whether that's appropriate, and the fuzziness probably compensates...)
3-4 month wave….what a surprise!
Pops wrote:I really like that way of plotting the uncertainty range (the fuzzy line). Very nice.
Looks suspiciously like the model's forcing to a gaussian function? (of course, I don't know anywhere near enough about infectious diseases to know whether that's appropriate, and the fuzziness probably compensates...)
Thought the same re: uncertainty. Uncertainty/fuzziness indicating somewhere between now and mid-September for peak cases numbers.
Why Gaussian though? Simple to implement/estimate?
More info here. A little light on the details though. https://burnet.edu.au/system/asset/file/4899/SydneyModelling_COVASIM_Exp...
Not exactly Gaussian I feel, more details here.. https://burnet.edu.au/news/1506
Just had quick google on other scenarios run in the UK etc with similar software and they produce non-Gaussian outputs.
Thanks, yeah more of a sharp climb/long tail on a closer look, which seems to make more sense.
Did the High Court kill SN forums today Stu ?
Don't worry Stu. I won't be suing you for the pure bullshit the idiots on your site post (and you publish).
adam12 wrote:Did the High Court kill SN forums today Stu ?
What did the High Court get up to?
Media outlets considered to be the publishers of third party comments on online forums that they host I think is what it boils down to.
Dylan Voller case.
Hmmm, in that case I'd just like to say how much I like my SN subscription :)
Constance B Gibson wrote:Hi SN team!
Does this mean you've got actual work to do?
https://theconversation.com/high-court-rules-media-are-liable-for-facebo...
(regarding these forums I mean)
Fuck! Hey guys and girls, please don't use any rude words or dangerous ideas.
Peace,
The Lazy Moderator
Oh man, the implications are pretty big: as eldest just pointed out, it will open a new golden age of trolling. If people don't like a website, here comes the naughty comments as the mod tries to swat them, but never fast enough. The other implication is an end to free-speech websites (the free speech probably then goes underground on private chat).
Blowin, sorry I didn't reply, not ignoring you, been surfing pumping waves. What Roker said, media liable for comments.
Appears that the States passed uniform laws on July 1 that set a pretty high bar for a defamation case to succeed in such matters.
Looks like Swellnet forums are safe - ‘lazy moderator’ or not!
Voller can sue but he’s no certainty to win. I don’t know what the comments were - wild guess they were vile - but it sounds like there were heaps of em across all the major platforms’ Facebook pages.
There's as lot to take in RE the new ruling, and it'll be some time before we fully understand the repercussions, but that said, we've been aware for a long time that changes will soon be coming.
Few things to consider:
The new law applies to individuals as much as it does to organisations. This means that, after reading nasty things online, Surfer X may not go after the website that hosted the comment but the commenter. Each is considered the publisher following Voller's case.
The 'serious harm' threshold counts out defamation against most people on the site - as most are commenting anonymously. You can't claim harm to your reputation if no-one knows who you are.
The serious harm threshold will also discount trivial banter, so it'll take some test cases to understand where the baseline is.
All things considered, we'll now have to pay closer attention to any defamatory comments toward real people, especially when their names are used, but there'll also be an onus upon commenters to avoid doing so.
More to come later.
scary times
bigger picture scary... not litigious snowflake scary...
“ Surfer X may not go after the website that hosted the comment but the commenter. Each is considered the publisher following Voller's case.“
Look Mum….I’m a self-published awtherr !
sypkan wrote:scary times
bigger picture scary... not litigious snowflake scary...
I'm watching it keenly, make no mistake, but I tend to think we - that is, Swellnet in the way it currently operates - will be afforded some protection by the June 1 legislation and also how that plays out in early cases. I mean, we're not Reddit.
I also don't think it's particularly scary cos I reckon people should have protection from defamation, and to date the big social media platforms haven't offered that protection.
All that said, we're getting advice.
"Better get a lawyer, son
You better get a real good one
Get yourself a lawyer, son
You're gonna need a real good one
Don't drop the soap
Don't smoke no dope
Get yourself a lawyer, son
You're gonna need a good one
To get you outta this one"
A good toon, A12.
Constance B Gibson wrote:Hi SN team!
So, it's a (relative) free-for-all if commenters use pseudonyms?
And only problematic if someone uses their real name and then is 'defamed' by others (using pseudonyms...or not)?Do people use their real names on this site usually?
Unless they are a subscriber, I guess it's impossible to determine. And I guess even being a subscriber, this is difficult to police.
Maybe in future only subscribers will be able to comment, and perhaps only on articles?Interesting times.
G'Day Connie,
There are very few people here who comment under their real name, so that side of the argument isn't an issue - they're anonymous so they can't be defamed - however, of more concern is if people off the site (pro surfers, celebrities etc) are defamed and later read it.
That's my most pressing concern, however like I've said above, I'll wait till test cases happen before changing anything, though I anticipate the law will offer protection for us to continue roughly as we are now.
Constance B Gibson wrote:Lucky I didn't mention my old goofy mate's name in that post in another thread then! Phew!
So play nicely Connie, you know better than anyone what'll happen otherwise.
Had no idea who Dylan Voller was, but seems he is that spitting kid from NT.
Charming too https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dylan_Voller
"During that time he has been involved in more than 200 prison incidents of, self harm, assault on staff and others (some requiring hospitalisation of victims) since he was jailed for aggravated robbery and endangering a police officer in 2014. Voller has served two of the three sentences given to him over an alleged drug-fuelled crime spree in which he attacked a man and tried to run down a policeman."
"In 2019, the 21 year old Voller plead guilty to staging a bomb hoax at the Commonwealth Games marathon in Gold Coast.[22] On 1 February 2020 Voller was sentenced to a 10 month prison sentence due to an incident in which he jumped on railway tracks, exposed his penis and assaulted a transit guard in Western Australia.[23] Voller also had a warrant issued for his arrest by the Deniliquin Local Court in NSW on 19 June 2020 in relation to an armed robbery that occurred in Moama, NSW in May 2019.[24]"
And after all that he will probably get a nice little pay out, who says crime doesn't pay.
Is that who I think it is ^^^^
Connie I mean, not Dylan V
Lawyers 1, everyone else zero.
stunet wrote:There's as lot to take in RE the new ruling, and it'll be some time before we fully understand the repercussions, but that said, we've been aware for a long time that changes will soon be coming.
Few things to consider:
The new law applies to individuals as much as it does to organisations. This means that, after reading nasty things online, Surfer X may not go after the website that hosted the comment but the commenter. Each is considered the publisher following Voller's case.
The 'serious harm' threshold counts out defamation against most people on the site - as most are commenting anonymously. You can't claim harm to your reputation if no-one knows who you are.
The serious harm threshold will also discount trivial banter, so it'll take some test cases to understand where the baseline is.
All things considered, we'll now have to pay closer attention to any defamatory comments toward real people, especially when their names are used, but there'll also be an onus upon commenters to avoid doing so.
More to come later.
Could this be the end of pseudonym's or user names. Would having a user name with the individuals real name alongside tidy up the personal attacks online or the rhetoric some may pull back on If their real name was published above their thoughts ( 7 drinks in or after a crappy day).
Interesting to see if and where this goes.
Personally, I try to re-read any comment I make and ask if my 17y.o. son read it knowing I was the author would he be disgusted. Then I just hit comment (usually 7 drinks in).
Goofy…yep.
That familiar snide attitude.
Perfect illustration of how detached humans have gotten from the natural world this morning. Walking up the street there was a couple of cars on the edge of the road with their hazards on. Two fellas and a lady staring at the poor old kangaroo which lives in exile from the mob. They’d hit it with their car and were simply standing around doing nothing. Old mate Roo had an obviously broken leg and was desperately trying to get up and run but it’s running days are over.
I asked what they were going to do about the distressed animal and they told me they’d called wires and there was a bloke coming from Xxxxxx . I told them the animal was getting put down and the fella would take ages to get here and they should just knock it on the head with their tyre iron. They all looked at me like I’d just suggested throwing a few million Jews into an oven. The chick actually shrieked at me that it was the cruellest thing she’d ever heard.
She said this whilst a terminally injured animal writhed in pain in front of her and she ignored its plight because she didn’t want to witness violence and she thinks that an animal experiencing an hour of wretched fear and hideous pain is justified if the mercy is bloodless. My missus started to drag me out of there before I went mental.
People are fucked.
I hope you did put it out of its misery before leaving Blowin . You seem to leave important details out from your posts .
Like did you paddle in after seeing the shark the other day .
Confronting and sad Blowin, but think a lot of people would find it hard to wail a tyre iron into the skull of an innocent animal, even if terminally injured. Bit harsh to judge them like that. Killing an animal like that can haunt a lot of people, me being one of them. Last year I accidentally injured a gecko, took its eye out with a paint scraper and had to kill it. I was surprised at how upset I was afterwards, had to take the rest of the day off, still feel shit about it. Just a gecko but it was my fault I ended its little life.
Hutchy - Didn’t paddle in. If it was a shark it wasn’t interested and was going about it’s business and heading away so no stress. It’s pretty obvious when a fish is gearing up to attack.
Didn’t touch the roo as I had nothing with me to do the needful. That’s why my lady got me out of there as I was starting to agitate towards doing the job and the people who’d hit the roo weren’t going to aid me in seeing it through. That’s why I was upset.
I can understand them being too squirmish to do the job but preventing someone else from doing the right thing was atrocious.
Adam- Agree. It never feels good, in fact it always feels really bad, but it’s the right thing to do so it’s got to be done.
One of our house geckos started barking for the first time this season a couple of nights ago. Glad to have him back! Love those little guys and their passion for eating annoying insects.
Westof- That chart is pretty off. Unless you’re counting Fake Left as True Left. The Guardian couldn’t be any more supportive of the mass immigration which is destroying our working class than if they were writing the visas themselves. Anything but left. Same goes for a few of those publications. If you encourage policies which disenfranchise the working class you ain’t left regardless of how many pronouns you have in your bio.
The SMH has pushed the unaffordability of houses more than almost anyone. How can a publication which does everything within its power to render young Australians as permanent renters be considered centre ? Particularly after it’s the same publication doing everything within its powers to destroy their job prospects and working conditions with unrelenting support for the same Big Australia Ponzi scheme.
the drum - centre ...lol...
actually, nearly that whole 'centre' column is a lol...
they need a neoliberal column
and a corporate wokester column
maybe a star graph would be more appropriate...
with the neoliberal and corporate wokester columns heading downwards...
towards the gates of hell...
sypkan wrote:the drum - centre ...lol...
actually, nearly that whole 'centre' column is a lol...
...
My exact thoughts, if 60 minutes is slightly to the right???? then Four corners & The Drum, Michael West are surely slightly to the left
Other than that it's fairly fair.
WA’s first surf park is looking more like a shore thing. A 5.7ha site on Prinsep Road in Jandakot has already been earmarked for the project, which is anticipated to create an estimated 200 jobs during planning and construction, and employ more than 100 people when it opens its doors.
And now Minister for Transport and Planning Rita Saffioti has announced who the Government wants to build and run the $80 million development in Jandakot — Aventuur. The global surf park business, said it would use cutting-edge “wavegarden cove” technology to deliver WA’s first surf park.
It will include Australia’s largest and most advanced surfing lagoon, a 100-room boutique hotel, co-working and creative office space, functions, conferencing and event spaces, a surf coaching academy as well as a beach club, bars and restaurants.
Blowin/Adam - One our first night out with a mate who just got his licence we were headed to Bruns Pub and a cat ran under the car . Run over with the front and rear wheels .
We got out and it was on the side of the road in a very bad way wheezing . After a while I drew up the courage and pulled a big peg out the ground and smashed it on the head .
A girl I knew ran over a possum . Took it home . I saw it a few days later , still alive , but with maggots moving inside its eyes . Hit it over the head with a shovel .
Sometimes you have to be cruel to be kind .
I think I would have paddled in . But wave quality and time already in the surf would determine if I paddled back out later . Hats off for your calmness .
Westof - Both charts you posted need to " take a jump to the left " but especially the top one . ABC , The Age , Drum , SBS and West being centre is laughable . The AFR being right is hilarious . It is Fairfax like the Age .
When you tally up the numbers on both sides the bias of our news is as shocking as it is predictable .
When you also consider we the tax payers ( who are 50/50 ) pay for the ABC and SBS it is clear why some want to privatise both . Both channels do good programs where they do not promote their biased views , I think we should just axe their news and current affair programs . Will save about $500m p/a .
SBS news is the only news worth watching. Can’t imagine what anyone who watches might think is lefty, bu then people see what they want to see, I suppose.
On channels 9 and 7 tonight you can bet it will be just the usual beat ups, people at the beaches causing outrage while poor websites are locked down, a car accident somewhere and of not for the pubs being closed, some brawl.
A mate who lives in a locked down LGA tells me every time he goes for a walk the local parks are chock a block with people sitting down, having picnics, large family groups, no masks on. But pictures of a packed Bondi feed into their narrative.
Mind you, nobody should be sunbathing at Bondi. Get in the water and go home
That high court decision is interesting, but not entirely unexpected. Defamation action was always a possibility for any commenter, something I’ve mentioned at times to be careful of, but yes, anonymity through user names makes it hard to make a case that you’ve been defamed, and the ‘trivial’ aspect will hopefully avoid ambulance chaser lawyers.
But I would have thought that swellnet always had this in the back of their minds and seem to recall Stu advising caution.
I was quite concerned when people were putting Christian Porter’s name out there before he admitted to being the subject of the police enquiry.
I am probably wrong re SBS news Batfink . Don't watch it enough to have an informed view . Mistakenly lobbed them in with the ABC .
Here's a cool read
https://wavelengthmag.com/porthleven-legend-lore-surfing/?utm_source=ema...
Here's an innovative piece of corporate bastardry...from the cradle to the grave
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-14/smoking-giant-philip-morris-take-...
Scientist #1: “ I wonder how effective this new fuel fire inhibitor would be in the case of a Boeing 720 crash?”
Scientist #2: “ Only one way to find out.”
Hmmm that looks like me on Microsoft Flight Simulator...
Scientist 1: "Let's get a huge plane and land it on an aircraft carrier."
Scientist 2: "I like your style."
Hmmm... that was interesting. Heart in your mouth stuff having to do it for the very first time.
Recently I went to an aeronautical museum down near narita and for a bit of extra cash got to have a 30 min training sesh and got to land a Boeing 737 Max in a real simulator. It's amazing how real it is. What's even more amazing is how much stuff you have to remember to get the plane down, even with all the additional computer aids.
I managed somehow to land safely- bit rough but I got her down.
It was an interesting and insightful experience.
My old man programmed the flight simulators at QANTAS for 25 years before moving to the Navy to do the same. Pretty cool stuff. I wish I’d shown more interest in his work cause he loved it with a passion.
Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water…..
Have it cunts