Interesting stuff

ChinaFlu call it what it is.

What it is isn't a flu. It's a coronavirus, not an influenza virus.

@Indo

The whole point is, the government isn't borrowing money, it's creating it.

I don't know a thing about economics, I just thought this article sounded like it was worth considering.

https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/coronavirus-covid19-how-aus...

Yeah but the more money you create the more you devalue it and cause inflation.

I dont really understand the bigger picture and complexity's around all this stuff..

So i expect this thought is out there and not realistic.

But like i asked before, what is the down side of artificially devaluing our dollar by printing more money?

Could we just print our way out of this and actualy intentionally devalue our dollar and in turn make manufacturing in Australia more viable again and create a manufacturing boom?...boom in employment and also be more self reliant.

Obviously you lose buying power from OS in doing this and at the moment with us still being reliant on oil for cars etc it's an issue.

But as we move away from oil/petroleum products maybe intentionally devaluing our dollar could be a great way to boast manufacturing/employment and make exports more attractive.

The idea in that article is that it's the production of goods and services and the paying of tax on these (in a healthy economy) that actually keeps inflation at bay.

Like I said,don't ask me, but the question is, what difference does it make if we don't balance the budget and get back to surplus?

The Yanks have been running it up for decades with no intention of paying it back.

I expect many solutions will be floated, but what leads us out of the current predicamant will be something unexpected; a new way of approaching economics. The Long Boom post-WWII was unexpected, most countries were heavily debt-laden because of the war efforts, same as the stagflation of the early 70s, which at the time no-one could see a way out of.

Don't underestimate the creativity of economists.

All that but Jeff Sparrow and Greg Jericho are at the top of their fields.

Greg Jericho's almost always worth reading.

And a good source for some laughs too.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/man-accidentally-ejects-hi...

Debate from over the ditch

The alternative plan was developed by Auckland University's senior lecturer of epidemiology Simon Thornley.

"Lockdown was appropriate when there was so little data ... but the data is now clear, this is not the disaster we feared and prepared for. Elimination of this virus is likely not achievable and is not necessary," he said.

Thornley said the risk to most working people was low and likened it to a seasonal influenza virus.

He said the plan was developed amid concern the government's strategy was over-the-top and likely to "substantially harm the nation's long-term health and wellbeing, social fabric, economy and education".

Other members of the group include Grant Schofield, professor of public health, Auckland University of Technology; Gerhard Sundborn, senior lecturer of population and pacific health, Auckland University; Grant Morris, associate professor of law, Victoria University; Ananish Chaudhuri, professor of experimental economics, Auckland University; and Michael Jackson, postdoctoral researcher in biostatistics and biodiscovery, Victoria University.

No deaths had occurred among New Zealanders under 70 and much of the modelling related to the mortality associated with COVID-19 was overestimated, the group said in a statement.

The real threat posed by the virus was it would overwhelm the health system but New Zealand's risk was lower than in other countries with higher population density, and the local health system had spare capacity, they said.

"Data shows a large majority of COVID-19 fatalities have occurred in people due to their co-morbidities rather than directly from the virus. Even in Italy only 12 per cent of cases were directly due to COVID.

"If you catch COVID-19 your likelihood of dying is the same as your average likelihood of dying that year anyway. It has been described as squeezing your year's mortality risk into two weeks."

Good stuff shoredump. Got the link?

I think it's climate.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/new-zealand-lockdown-rules-should-b...

Blowin, is it called the law of chaos, or chaos theory?
Lots of different outcomes are possible, and many different outcomes do eventuate, but the only one anyone has had any time for was worst case scenario for every single country.
Virus’ so far as I know don’t ever work like that, there’s hotspots for sure, but mostly that’s all there ever is, a few hotspots

Could be partly temperature related but isn’t it also lack of testing or even lack of data why the third world countries don’t have as many cases?
In Indo there doesn’t appear to be that much of a problem based on data but apparently the number of funerals/ burials is taking off suggesting there are a lot of deaths that aren’t being credited to corona.

Indo: "surely you cant just borrow money and not pay it back and let it build up and up and up?"

Sort of related:

http://www.mshistorynow.mdah.ms.gov/articles/70/john-law-and-the-mississ...

Article:

We may be over-reacting to an unremarkable coronavirus by ADAM CREIGHTON

12:00AM APRIL 14, 2020

Stay safe. Keep well. Perhaps a hysteria has gripped the nation, at extraordinary cost, when we’re telling each other to take special care over a disease that in three months has killed about 60, in the main quite unwell elderly people.

Even in coronavirus hot spots in Europe and the US, there’s greater chance of being killed in a car accident than being harmed by COVID-19, according to research published last week by Stanford scientist John Ioannidis.

“The risk of dying from coronavirus for a person under 65 years old is equivalent to the risk of dying driving a distance of nine to 415 miles by car each day during the COVID-19 fatality season,” he concluded.

Yet many of those under-65s have had their lives pulled apart, including loss of 195 million jobs around the world this quarter, according to the International Labour Organisation.

In Australia at the very least, with so few deaths and infections, the response to the virus is starting to appear to be a damaging over-reaction. Last month’s draconian response by officials — inducing a recession, destroying millions of jobs and businesses, and locking us all up — was at least politically understandable. The hankering for total lockdown, cheered on largely by those who would be relatively unaffected by it, was irresistible.

Yet as more real data rolls in — as opposed to the wildly inaccurate epidemiological forecasts of millions of deaths globally and many thousands locally — justifications for massive interventions, fiscal and civil, are dwindling.

We were told lockdowns were needed; otherwise hospitals would be swamped. But during the first 11 days of the month, the number of people in intensive care in NSW has fallen to 30, of whom 21 were using ventilators. That’s 2 per cent of available ventilators, even before 3000 more arrive.

Fears of a Spanish flu-like pandemic, which killed almost 40 million people a century ago, are looking exaggerated as the global death toll from COVID-19 approaches 120,000, which is 0.2 per cent of the 60 million people who will die this year from all causes (including more than three million from respiratory infections).

Yes, the lockdowns and social distancing in theory must have slowed the spread. But evidence is thin. Sweden and Japan, for instance, have not imposed lockdowns yet have far fewer deaths as a proportion of their populations than Spain, Italy or France, which have.

The Spanish flu killed 1.2 per cent of Italians, according to new research by Harvard economist Robert Barro, equivalent to 720,000 people today. Almost 20,000 Italians have died of (or with) COVID-19 so far, putting the virus more on par with flu pandemics of the late 1950s and 60s, when governments refrained from destroying their economies. The weakness of the virus itself, rather than wise government action, is the likelier reason the death toll is not as grim as first predicted.

“The likelihood of someone dying from coronavirus is much lower than we initially thought,” Ioannidis told Greek media this week, forecasting that “the mortality rate will be slightly — but not spectacularly — higher than the seasonal flu.”

Indeed, almost 80 per cent of the population of Gangelt, a German town highly exposed to COVID-19, was recently tested to see if they had had the virus. About 15 per cent had, without any symptoms, implying an infection death rate of 0.37 per cent — about four times as bad as seasonal flu but much lower than figures of 1 per cent to 3 per cent first feared.

The first officially detected case of COVID-19 in Australia was in January, eight weeks before lockdowns took effect. Does anyone seriously think only 6400, yesterday’s domestic tally, have been infected? It’s the infection fatality rate — not the official rate of infection — that matters: official tallies are meaningless when so many are asymptomatic.

“I am much more concerned about the consequences of blind shutdowns and the possible destruction of a (Greek) economy where 25 per cent of the GDP is based on tourism,” Ioannidis said.

For the Australian economy, the costs of the response to COVID-19 will be profound too, quite aside from the significant additional debt burden. Joblessness soon will likely double, based on a Roy Morgan survey for last month. The costs of loneliness and inactivity are harder to measure.

“Another month of mass isolation will cost the West at least the equivalent of a million deaths in terms of reduced quality of life,” says Paul Frijters, a professor of economics at London School of Economics using his index of wellbeing. That’s too bad for Victoria, where Premier Daniel Andrews has extended the nation’s most severe lockdown for another four weeks.

If Austria and Denmark — each with many more total deaths and more new infections than Australia — can see the sense in beginning to lift restrictions, so should we. Hospitals have plenty of capacity and new infection rates have tumbled.

Everyone has a right to a view on this fundamental question. Disease experts’ forecasts have proved hopelessly wrong anyway.

It’s not certain a vaccine will ever emerge, but we obviously can’t stay locked down for six months. The longer it lasts, the harder it will be to switch the economy back on. The businesses won’t be there. The economy isn’t a machine like the bureaucracy but a complex set of relationships that will atrophy.

Why not let sport occur without crowds, parliaments sit, young people swim at the beach, businesses reopen, provided they observe social distancing principles? No one is saying “let it rip”; clearly insulating the vulnerable from this virus is a high priority. But it appears less likely the virus will wipe out 5 per cent of India, or 3 per cent of Indonesia, as the Spanish flu did.

We urgently need randomised testing to see how widespread the coronavirus already is. The Prime Minister has said COVID-19 is akin to a one-in-100-year event. It’s unlikely that’s true of the virus, but it’s looking true of damage caused by hysteria.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/we-may-be-overreacting-to-an...

@Patrick, the real data wave has begun.

I’m keeping in mind something @Stunet said about the lockdown 4-5 weeks ago, you’re damned if you do and you’re damned if you don’t.

But the reality of the data coming out of Italy speaks for itself. But I am still looking for weaknesses in it, I always doubt myself every step. Maybe the lockdown kept it in hotspots in the north while those stats reflect all of Italy. I’d like to see stats for hotspot populations only to fully understand the situation.

But I highly doubt we would have had a world wide hotspot if we let it run. More Italy’s for sure, but not the spanish flu.

tired of 'conspiracy theories' I hear you say...

"...The idea that it was just a totally natural occurrence is circumstantial. The evidence it leaked from the lab is circumstantial. Right now, the ledger on the side of it leaking from the lab is packed with bullet points and there’s almost nothing on the other side,” the official said.'

"...The origin story is not just about blame. It’s crucial to understanding how the novel coronavirus pandemic started because that informs how to prevent the next one. The Chinese government must be transparent and answer the questions about the Wuhan labs because they are vital to our scientific understanding of the virus, said Xiao.

We don’t know whether the novel coronavirus originated in the Wuhan lab, but the cable pointed to the danger there and increases the impetus to find out, he said.
“I don’t think it’s a conspiracy theory. I think it’s a legitimate question that needs to be investigated and answered,” he said. “To understand exactly how this originated is critical knowledge for preventing this from happening in the future.”"

all this published at the pet propaganda project for the master advocate of the chinese peasant factory model

the wa-po, no less...

no conspiracy...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cabl...

unfortunatly, after yet another drawn out media shit storm, once again, we find where there's smoke we shouldn't be talking about (apparently...), there's most definitely fire...

and that the 'good guys' are paddling way more bullshit than the supposedly ''bad guys'"

...yet again...

is it ideology or ignorance?

give us a hint dumb cunt...

This documentary following the same line of thought as what is mentioned above.
https://www.arlingtoncardinal.com/2020/04/controversial-epoch-times-rele...

It mentions that patient zero was most likely a lab technician Huang Yanling

Had to share this, gave me a good laugh!

"Shopper tries to return $10,000 worth of hoarded toilet paper and sanitiser"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-15/supermarket-shopper-tries-to-retu...

Those guys are showing short sightedness on a grand scale ... should just store it for the next pandemic which will surely be with us soon enough if those "exotic" food practices continue.

vintage toilet paper, love it!

"Ah, '94 vintage, lots of rainfall on the plantations that year..."

Spent a lot of time in the shed lately, for down time, escape time, sometimes I don't even know why I'm there but the process of osmosis drags me from a place of high pressure to a place of low pressure - the shed.

And there are boards there. Neatly lined up in two rows running at right angles from a corner, few in the roof too. There's not much else to do in a shed full of boards but pull them out, run your hands up and down the rails, admire the fall of light over the curves and just stare.

The boards I hoard - the collectables - occupy one row and all of them have a set position: take the board out, put it back in the same place, and wipe off the fingerprints please. In the other row are the riders and guns, and their positions change all the time owing to how much use they've recently had.

Towards the corner and squashed between two bigger boards was a 5'6" fish shaped by Nick Miles. I say 'was' because it's not in that position anymore; despite being all but invisible for a few years, it caught my eye recently, and my mind flashed back to a turn. One turn in particular - a single second that remains vivid two years later. I can find many faults in twin fins, and this one is no different, but when it sparks the feeling is fantastic; it's compelling in a way that few boards are.

It's a trad fish in many ways: wide nose, deep swallow, two keel fins set back on the board. It's modelled off a board from Nick's range, The Couch Surfer, and it looks like a sloth from a distance. But proximity reveals a little goer with a deep single under the front foot, reduced thickness in the front end, reduced width in the swallow, and late vee and kick in the tail.

5'6" x  20 1/4 x 2 3/16 and 30.5 litres.

For a while I ran my hands over the rails, the boards faults fading away, its virtues reviving. It was enough. I took it out of the shed and placed it in the back of the wagon.

I rode that board all long weekend during the recent south swell, twice a day, one session early, one late, and banked lots of waves at the point. Long waves. Waves that stretched out through many sections. I needed waves like that to adjust because it's so unlike my usual riders. At first the feeling is foreign, lot of mis-steps and bum notes while getting accustomed again. It helps when there's space for mistakes.

The most obvious change is the shortened turning radius. In Thrusters or quads, the rear and front fins work in tandem to elongate a turn, expand the range of possibilities, but a twinny turns off one fin so it's natural inclination is to pivot.

A single fin turns off one fin too, of course, but a twin is more reactive as the pivot point is off the centre line. So they're very reactive, and they like short arc turns. About three sessions in I was beginning to get the hang of it again. Like delaying the bottom turn ever so slightly because once the fin's engaged it'll want to go vertical, and quickly, or anticipating the quick bite and arc of a well-weighted face turn. If you're not low and ready it'll buck like a bronco and the only thing that'll save you is ungainly waving of arms and sudden deceleration. Did that more than a few times over the weekend, not all of them occurred down the line and out of sight.

I'm yet to repeat the turn that I associate with the board, but I've gone close a few times, and I've decided to stick with it a while. There's been a reshuffle of the deck. Yesterday I took my go to shortboard out of the wagon, gave it a breather, carried it to the shed and sat it in the gap where the fish was. Maybe the exchange will only be temporary. The next few sessions will be telling.

The debate over lock down or not seems to fade when you look at NYC

Love my fish, will never part with it. A 5'6" too, but a quad. I'll never forget my first wave on one, took off and my back foot went straight through the swallow, nearly got a free vasectomy! Second wave was a revelation and have never looked back...

NY times reporting that the New York kungflu death toll soars past 10,000 after officials added more than 3700 people who had never tested positive for the virus but were PRESUMED to have died of it.
Meanwhile in OZ 60 odd dead out of 25,000,000 plus change.
WA hospital staff sent home ; not enough work ,ha.
Only 2% of ICU beds in NSW are being used.
Victorians are under severe restrictions but they deserve it for voting in Commo Dan.

A cynical man would think that the current state of affairs is the goal and the politicians and "experts" are actually enjoying it.Never,ever believe any thing a government says.Ever.Politicians only concern is 1:getting elected and 2: staying elected.They are not your friend.

The common good of a collective-a race,a class,a state- was the claim and justification of every tyranny ever established over men.

- Ayn Rand

Australia has a uniparty.Labour /Libs aren't in opposition ,there in collusion.They just take turns driving the bus whilst the mouth-breathing window lickers from the senate shit all over the back seat.

@stunet I've been back on a twinny since Dec, and had a number of epic fun surfs at the point on it. On the weekend I went the other way than you did as the swell came up and jumped on a new good wave board. Spent the weekend frustrated as all hell with the thing. This morning the new board was returned to the garage and the twinny returned to the truck. Had a super fun surf. Now dreaming up step up versions. Be good to hear how long the exchange last. At the moment I'm addicted to this thing.

I've been busting out my twin-keeled fish for the last couple of summers. After it lying dormant for years. I love the feel and when I can get it all to click on my backhand I love going left on it too.

One part of Stu's piece resonated with me- a couple of years ago I did this one magic turn on a nice size wave, no fin release, no slide, just a perfect arc transitioning from rail to rail, perfect speed, perfectly weighted. I was kinda like 'Whoa! Did that just happen?!'

Sadly, haven't done one since .

thats interesting about the twin keel.

I never felt that short arc pivot feeling of a normal twin because it feels like you are turning/driving off the rail and keel base plus the very straight rail line behind the back foot.

so you get almost the entire 5'6" of rail line to turn off.

I'd say the modern thruster has a much shorter turning arc, with the fin cluster and much more rocker and plan shape curve behind the back foot

maybe the keel fish Stu has has enough modern features it has that pivot twin fin feel going on.

I'm with you FR... twin fishes I've ridden have always tended to like longer more drawn out turns, usually liking to start further out on the face rather than in the pocket too (maybe my own limitations there!). And sometimes need to be nursed a bit so they don't slide out. Tend to make waves feel bigger too, which is always good.

Also go crazy fast in a straight line in hollower waves.

I've never ridden a really modern twin design though.

Sounds like a really interesting board Stu.

I call 'em keels but they're classic tuna fin shape, only oversized - longer base and taller. Maybe a misnomer.

Anyway, it has the short arc thing caused by turning off the one point (as opposed to Thrusters or quads) which can turn off two points making it easier to draw longer, shallower turns - roundhouse cutbacks and the like. Not often you see those done well on a twinny.

Of course twins can also do drawn out turns but they're not instinctive to that fin configuration and rely heavily on the rocker/rail/fin relationship to transfer the turn from the fin to the rail, plus the ability of the pilot.

Note: when I mean turn, I mean TURN, not lean or veer or corner. Really pushing the board.

i have a modern fish (6') with big modern keel fins ...the rasta keel templates.
it certainly is good at doing drawn out turns, such as big round house cutbacks.

whether it's also good at doing quicker short arc pivot turns, i'm not a great judge. i don't push the board that much. but it certainly can move quick to avoid a lip or closeout. it certainly doesn't need to be nursed through the turns.

I love my twins, high-performance with a trailer is my current go to board and has been for the last 2.5 years, but I also have a fishy version like Stu is describing. Short, stubby and with plenty of volume. 5'3".

When you get used to them you can surf them in both ways as Stu and Steve have described, really get it up and going down the line and do big drawn out roundhouse cut backs or also come from behind the wave and make it sharp and snappy.

Here's my fishy 5'3" version and you can see it's lose and tight when you want it to be..

I was doing the twin + trailer thing last year during a doldrum in late Winter and talking to Craig about it, swapping between a 6'0 double wing swallow and a mini mal. Paddle - could feel more drag. But it was intellectually interesting, with the odd blazing speed run and skatey feeling.
Then, a big swell arrived, drove down. Ah, just the mini mal in the car. Bugger. Ah, it has the twin + trailer set up left in it, double bugger. So I paddled out.
By the time I got out, 15 mins and some big duckdives later, I'd forgotten what fin setup it had, and couldn't care what type of board, I just wanted a wave. And then I got one and... it was hilariously good! OK so it was a little more gentle on the heavy bottom turn, but I did turn it pretty hard and it held (thankyou, trailer) with a very free feeling. To cut back from way out on the face, wow. You could go so much further, so I started to enjoy how far I could push it and dig the rail in, in a tai chi style slooow hold. To be lip-launched, and make it, very satisfying.
You could also skate the big walls - in fact you had to. But those cutbacks... :)

I read this Stu and nearly keeled over! Are you ok mate! On the Fireball! I had to put on my comprehension goggles and re read this! We need to catch up ! Welcome to my world!

Had to take a screenshot of this, not often you see so much positive post lined up on the front page, and from Blowin too, almost reads like a daily positive quote calendar or something :D

I'm gonna bake a cake to celebrate the occasion.

Haha!

Yep, remember well VJ. It's just an insane feeling the 2+1 twin. Holds when put hard on rail and in turns but also has that twinny speed, drive and projection at the same time. Can't beat it, best of both worlds and yes, those driving cutbacks, dreamy. I find down carves feel that much better as well, that speed gain and torque.

A. No, blow in. It was some dude called Shatner's Bassoon that recommended the book Economix.

Hahahaha.

As for MacroBUSINESS, the cut n paste site for cut n paste playerz, whoever suggested that owes you money for the sucka subscription, surely?

Yep it's pretty special. I'm not a natural twinny surfer either, but find it lots of fun. If you look at finsets like K3, Kelly has his sides slightly larger, there's something in it. It makes me want to optimise a board for it, tbh I'd shape a lot of stuff in the board to make it less loose and more drivey, like put in the long length of rail/flyer to temper the fins, and tail vee with concaves through it (for me).

Blowin, thank you. Thats a great compliment, I think I might have steered you in the MB direction? I thought reading finance would help me gain an edge many years ago, but I realise it's all ctrl_p now. Until it isn't. The stuff that interests me the most these days is far-prehistory and I'd love to do threads on the cosmic wheel/archetype symbols/legends/enduring iconography describing real cosmic events. Then correlating these events in geology/climate data. Remember that 1000ft wave, hitting WA & Madagascar and creating chevrons? For some research, go looking for the great comet Typhon... I was so tempted to post a bombshell in the religion thread but thought better of it... Our sky is mellow compared to that of our ancestors.