House prices
Vic Local wrote:Hang on blowin, you said housing prices were going to collapse 30-50% due to no immigration because of covid. You were so laughably wrong on that weren't you champ?.
To be fair he wasn't alone, lot of articles and views havent aged well.
April 2020
"Predictions house prices could fall by 30 per cent in worst-case scenario as coronavirus restrictions bite"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-24/worst-case-scenario-house-prices-...
May 2020
"THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON AUSTRALIA’S HOUSING MARKET
As the world faces one of the fastest and largest global economic contractions in living memory, Australia’s house prices are likely to fall for months – possibly years"
https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-austra...
See Ya Champ.
And next time you cherrypick an expert to support your warped agenda, it's best you read his whole article first to avoid humiliating yourself.
The article backs up Blowins assessment VL.
Oliver gives 2 main reasons why housing is expensive.
1. low interest rates
2. population growth of 150,000 per annum leading to a shortfall of supply
Clearly written in the article under the heading “So why is housing so expensive?”
Where’s the problem?
Fliplid wrote:The article backs up Blowins assessment VL.
Oliver gives 2 main reasons why housing is expensive.
1. low interest rates
2. population growth of 150,000 per annum leading to a shortfall of supply
Clearly written in the article under the heading “So why is housing so expensive?”
Where’s the problem?
Because VicMoron has a hardon for Blowin and it doesn't matter what he says or any facts presented, he will cherrypick, argue, abuse and just be the DickVocal he is. Blinkers with no consideration for others points of view regardless.
Yep. If I said that Vic Local was hung like a horse he’d swear blue in the face that he was in possession of a working vagina and that I was a dopey prick racist bullshitter for not acknowledging it.
Wait…maybe that’s not the best example?
Sorry CBG, but there is no longer any room to be fair to that moron. Too much history of being a one eyed sanctimonious asshat with no respect for others points of view, regardless of whether they are right or wrong. If someone does align with his high moral ground though, he will shamelessly cup those balls whilst taking a length down the throat, exercising his lack of gag reflex.
Ha ha!
Thanks for ruining my dreams tonight Fitz.
Seems you’re absolutely correct Fliplid, as discussed in that AMP article high levels of population growth are one of the main factors leading to expensive housing.
Who would’ve thought Vic Local could be so wrong?
It's a pretty simple equation really. Do you think if 5 million Australians up and left the country tomorrow that house prices would continue to rise?
Nah, me neither.
ringmaster wrote:It's a pretty simple equation really. Do you think if 5 million Australians up and left the country tomorrow that house prices would continue to rise?
Nah, me neither.
Do you think that's ever going to happen ringmaster?
House prices are a bit more complex than that mate. Covid saw a massive decline in immigration and even periods of population decline in Australia but house prices went absolutely ballistic. Clearly, there are other forces at work.
Given how many people own a primary house, a holiday house, and a couple of investment properties, maybe supply isn't just determined by population. Notice how quiet town was when everyone was stuck in Melbourne?
It's supply v demand like everything but yes, multiple property owners and foreign investment skew the figures.
I was just giving an example taking it to the nth degree which if that ever happened would lead to a drop in prices.
ringmaster wrote:It's supply v demand like everything but yes, multiple property owners and foreign investment skew the figures.
I was just giving an example taking it to the nth degree which if that ever happened would lead to a drop in prices.
Plus houses are bigger, filled with the latest tech and granite countertops, and the average number of people per household has declined significantly.
Ha ha Fitzy
VL there have been plenty of “..other forces at work” and they have repeatedly been listed here on SN.
Returning ozzies who have been working overseas usually in high paying jobs who are cashed up and spending on real estate have more than compensated for the lack of immigration during covid. But…I’m not the first to mention that.
The other logical reasons are listed in that article by AMP you generously put up
If you want argue the topic fine but it seems you just want to target anyone that you don’t agree with, with a particular delight in going after Blowin, even if means dancing around the facts
Fliplid. I'm happy to add "returning Ozzies" to the list of factors that push up demand, but that's not what blowin was banging on about. He was saying immigrants (who aren't even coming) are the primary reason for the price rises.
I genuinely feel sorry for people trying to break into the housing market. They've been dealt a dud hand, but I have a really big problem with the narrative being pushed that immigrants are to blame. It's divisive and offers false hope. Immigration levels have plummeted while housing prices have skyrocketed in the last 2 years. Clearly this factor is not the primary reason for house price increases.
sypkan wrote:donweather seems to have missed this...
""tidal wave of expatriate professionals returning home amid COVID-19"
https://www.westpac.com.au/news/making-news/2021/04/very-appealing-expat...
"more than 480,000 Australians ... have returned since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic – close to half the total number of Australians previously living abroad"
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/brain-gain-half-of-australia...
and vicvocal and others...
again...
Ex pats are not immigrants. And in fact I’d hazard a bet a fair chunk of those returning ex pats already own houses in Australia.
garyg1412 wrote:I don't know about the big cities but in the smaller urban areas like ours it's not government stimulus or early superannuation driving the housing market. It's wealthy people mainly from out of area paying whatever they want for real estate because they can. I might be wrong but in small communities word gets around about what properties get sold, how they get sold and who buys them. Any person in our area in the current market trying to get a mortgage for grossly over priced properties has two problems:
1) The bank valuation will be nowhere near what the asking price is, and
2) Any offers subject to finance are simply trumped by cash buyers in most instances.
So the only mass migration currently are the Boomers and rich city rats and they are having a huge effect on local communities I think.
The next industry to boom in these areas will be the renovation industry . All these new home owners won't be happy with the shit boxes they've just paid three times the going price for, and will want their stone tops and frameless showers installed quick smart and at any price.
bingo!!! Nail on the head right there.
Yeah, and like I said, theres a net loss of 40,000 people in Victoria but still prices are going up.
So once again, this current trend isn’t being driven by population growth.
A little off topic but was talking about it in this thread the other day, on the building material increases, mostly framing pine and LVL & i beams etc
Im doing some major building work soon so was just talking to the guy where i get my timber from talking about prices increases etc, he said another big reason for price rise is we actually get a lot of framing pine from NZ but apparently USA has hit up NZ and said they will pay 40% more than what we will pay. (as USA has timber shortage)
Current price(before discount) he quoted was about $5.00 a lineal metre, last time i did a build was 5 years ago it was $2.95, i think it was about $3.50 before Covid.
Obviously only a very tiny factor in house price increases, but all related.
90 x 35 should still come in around $3.75 per m
Yeah not sure of 90 x 35 price, this is 90 x 45 MG 10 (no treatment) as what my plans will specify for bottom/top plates and studs, these guys prices are the cheapest in my area too unless getting elsewhere at a special builder price ( i will get a 5% discount on that price though) just had a look online Bunnings price for 90 x 45 is now $5.29 per LM
I expect prices probably vary from state to state a little though.
From what I’ve been told by our suppliers Indo is expect timber to go up about 60% in the next 6 months. Don’t expect LVL’s or any sort of engineered timber to be in stock. And also we are already finding it hard to secure cladding and James Hardie accessories (Ali corners stops). I have been using multiple timbers suppliers to get what we need. Good luck.
There is no doubt immigration levels impact house prices in Australia .
Before Covid there were 300k p/a people moving into Melb . Many were wonderful people moving to Australia ( many from India ) . Families with the wife being a nurse and the husband working also in the health industry as a cook , cleaner , driver etc . This was a major driver of new developments , associated infrastructure and house prices .
Australia has become the best country imo due to immigration .
However , it now has to be managed much more effectively .
What is our countries optimal population ? My guess is close to 40m . The cities are nearly full . There is plenty of space in the rural areas .
We desperately need engineers , doctors , nurses etc .
Our immigration needs to be selective on what Australia needs . We don't need to expand our different cultures . We are already multicultural enough . We can and do , at much higher % rates than other countries , bring in new people on humanitarian grounds . This should continue .
New immigrants will be ok with being told they have to work in rural areas for say 10 years . After this time they will have friends and a lifestyle that will probably make them stay there . If not they can move .
No one comes in uninvited and without strings attached . No one comes in a stays on welfare .
Just a few initial thoughts .
re: timber, hearing of metal frame replacing in quite a few instances - and just heard metal framing might become harder to get as well
Dunno if any of you are following the world right now, all the ships held up at ports, China telling their energy co's to absorb price increases but not pass it on (and whole cities and industries going dark), also them telling their energy logistics firms to secure winter fuel at any price; UK 25% of service stations ran out of petrol as not enough drivers; EU natural gas prices topping 100EU a KWh when was 15 last year and them also lessening industrial production, people saying to get Xmas shopping done yesterday, bare shelves in the US, food pricing up, oil prices rising (industry idled down investment due to covid, big bounce in demand now); shipping rates through the roof; semiconductor shortage drastically cutting new car production with roll-on effect of high used car pricing; yes as well timber running out...
It all seems to be downstream of supply chain shocks
Edit: EU gas is Russia wanting fixed price contracts I think, not a floating one, so gas flowing into EU dropped drastically
A lot of people in NHemi are going to freeze this winter, it's really sad. Winter also ramping up early and cold in places there too.
You are right johnno . This is part of a post I just put up on the oil slick thread .
"The world still needs oil and gas . Look at the energy problems now being faced in China and Europe . I think you will hear a lot more about them very soon . Thermal coal is at world record prices because of this ."
velocityjohnno wrote:re: timber, hearing of metal frame replacing in quite a few instances - and just heard metal framing might become harder to get as well
Dunno if any of you are following the world right now, all the ships held up at ports, China telling their energy co's to absorb price increases but not pass it on (and whole cities and industries going dark), also them telling their energy logistics firms to secure winter fuel at any price; UK 25% of service stations ran out of petrol as not enough drivers; EU natural gas prices topping 100EU a KWh when was 15 last year and them also lessening industrial production, people saying to get Xmas shopping done yesterday, bare shelves in the US, food pricing up, oil prices rising (industry idled down investment due to covid, big bounce in demand now); shipping rates through the roof; semiconductor shortage drastically cutting new car production with roll-on effect of high used car pricing; yes as well timber running out...
It all seems to be downstream of supply chain shocks
Edit: EU gas is Russia wanting fixed price contracts I think, not a floating one, so gas flowing into EU dropped drastically
sounds like hyperinflation is here!!! We all know what that means don’t we!!
A whole city block for 700oz of silver? (Jokes: that was Weimar)
btw Don, well done on your prognostication of late, I reckon you might have picked the timing.
velocityjohnno wrote:A lot of people in NHemi are going to freeze this winter, it's really sad. Winter also ramping up early and cold in places there too.
Is it that cold generally? up here in Scandi land its not any colder than previous years.
@VJ, was talking to a builder recently and there is already delays and price hikes for metal framing in NSW due to shortages of timber. Not sure of the times or cost differences. Concrete slabs are also being delayed due to lack of steel.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-06/apra-tightens-home-loan-rules/100...
That was quick. Can't see it having a huge impact though.
Some interesting numbers I heard this morning .
OZ Wholesale gas prices FELL 47% in August . Still higher than last year .
Electricity prices fell 28% and are 24% higher than last year .
The prices have to rise from current levels for the producers to make money .
In Europe prices are going ballistic . Renewable production is down and old base load generators were mothballed .
BB - my sources are business related ( extremely reliable and I am sure would be publicly available ) and I will keep private . As usual I don't care what you think .
Hutchy posts so much dribble on so many threads I can't work out if he's a bot or a bludger?
carpetbrain - There must be so much you can't work out ! Don't worry as you are not on you pat malone on this site .
" I can't work out if he's a bot or a bludger?" Not right on either guess .
Back so soon? Must be a bludger. Carry on.
The figures I posted were work related as I said .
You are right though , I am spending too much time enjoying myself pointing out the foolish views held by many on SN .
You might think the figures were dribble . I use them to make investment decisions and I hope some others on this site can make use of them to .
If that's how you get enjoyment, Hutchy, you need to get out more.
Would love to get out more carpet . Desperate for a surf . When Dan the man stops keeping us caged it will happen .
In the mean time you can read my dribble ( if you want ) and I will enjoy myself reading all the crazy comments on this site and responding .
velocityjohnno wrote:A whole city block for 700oz of silver? (Jokes: that was Weimar)
btw Don, well done on your prognostication of late, I reckon you might have picked the timing.
This is a brilliant read.
https://medium.com/concoda/were-about-to-witness-the-biggest-round-of-ba...
Great read Don, thanks for sharing.
Hutchy 19 wrote:You are right though , I am spending too much time enjoying myself pointing out the foolish views held by many on SN .
.
This, coming from a bloke who wants to dam the Mitchell River (an idea so profoundly stupid not even the local National Party MPs are supporting it) is a bit rich.
Vic- just posted on climate change thread . Looking forward to you pointing out how stupid I am .
Hutchy, what the hell did you do in your life before discovering swellnet?
Fitzroy . Before covid I surfed , swam , played golf and did a lot of walking my wonderful dog . She passed away about 2 years ago which coincided with my hobbies ( that were stress relievers ) stopping .
Before SN I had no outlet to discuss my views . I agree that I am over doing it and very much hope to soon get bored with the discussions . I am sure you and others feel the same way . Sorry !
That was a very good article of monetary clown world Don. I thought it was all gone in 2008, but that just shows I was naive. Then I enjoyed all the acronyms like PIIGS in 2010-11 and watched as terrible quality sovereign bonds got backstopped. I almost expect nothing less now... Ctrl_p
Edit:"It doesn’t matter that the financial alchemy they concoct to achieve this destroys the concept of price discovery, the sanctity of money, and the purchasing power of citizens." There's quite a few devastating quotes in the article. Internet as relief-valve.
OK pop quiz: pretend you are 25 year old Australian. You're earning alright. Do you YOLO buy into this RE beast, no matter the cost?
an oldie but a goodie
I doubt many 25 year olds can even afford it unless the Bank of Mumanddad is involved.
Dare to dream. Are they doing 105% LVRs?
velocityjohnno wrote:OK pop quiz: pretend you are 25 year old Australian. You're earning alright. Do you YOLO buy into this RE beast, no matter the cost?
Id still buy, but id buy where it's still cheap (far west Vic, remote areas of SA or WA) knowing i had something and even if it dropped i wouldn't be losing huge money and could always afford repayments and rates.
velocityjohnno wrote:OK pop quiz: pretend you are 25 year old Australian. You're earning alright. Do you YOLO buy into this RE beast, no matter the cost?
100% yes. if you can. then do it.
as good as that article that don sent despite its US centric view - note the concluding statement -
"But we’re nowhere near facing the end of bailout capitalism. In fact, its biggest round lies just around the corner"
but when is that corner? meanwhile asset owners rake it in and savers lose cash.
show me a government who will act on tax incentives and excessive immigration and I'll change my opinion
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers