House prices
grabs a cup of (pu'er Chinese) tea on this standard uninviting SE Qld spring morning:
velocityjohnno wrote:how inflation eats into the bond if you hold it - unless you get inflation-protected bonds
When you invest in a bond you pay the bond price. In return, as an investment vehicle, you receive future interest (coupon) payments/cashflows. Plus, if you hold the bond all the way until maturity, then you also receive a large lump sum back called the principal or face value.
For the main kind/style of (plain vanilla) bond out there, these future coupon and principal cashflows are fixed for the life of the bond. So if you compare your purchase price to these fixed future cashflows, you can work out the yield or return (interest rate) that you received from investing in the bond, which is thus also fixed for the life of the bond.
Hence, when you invest in a plain vanilla bond you earn a fixed return, but if inflation goes up then your actual REAL return (your fixed return minus the inflation rate) reduces. In this case the money you invested in the bond doesn't grow in a way that keeps pace with the increase in the price of goods and services (inflation), so you lose purchasing power over time. You could also imagine a scenario in which inflation increases above your fixed return, so you actually lose wealth.
Note: This general idea then leads to the idea of searching for inflation hedges - assets whose prices and/or returns increase at least in line with inflation, so you don't lose purchasing power or wealth in scenarios of increasing and high inflation.
velocityjohnno wrote:how an inversion in the curve (the curve being the different interest rates over different time frames) can predict - or revert and not predict! - incoming recessions? And if this even applies with current interventions?
The yield curve is just a graph of the bond yield (what I'm calling your bond return above) on bonds that mature at different dates in the future.
An inverted yield curve is when interest rates on short-term bonds (bonds that mature soon/over the short term, and what we call short term interest rates) are higher than interest rates on long-term bonds (long term interest rates). This (an inverted yield curve) is actually not the norm historically, and only occurs typically for two reasons:
1. Tight monetary policy environment: central banks increase the cash rate (fed rate in the US), which is a very short term interest rate, due to the economy overheating, usually from very high short term inflation and short term inflation expectations. When market participants expect central banks to get back control over inflation over the longer term, then longer term interest rates typically will stay low because they're expecting inflation to fall in the longer term. But here market participants are not necessarily predicting poor economic performance.
2. Loose monetary policy environment: when the cash (fed) rate is held low by central banks, so short term interest rates are also low, but long term interest rates are also still even lower than short term rates, then market participants are really expecting inflation to be low and economic performance to be very poor in the long term, and it is in this scenario that an inverted yield curve may be predicting a recession.
So it is an inverted yield curve in scenario 2 that predicts a recession. There is a lot of research surrounding the general predictive power/ability of the yield curve to predict future economic performance. A nice, but long and slightly technical, discussion is in: https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/current-policy-perspectives/2020/...
And finally, yes this applies at any point in time, including the current environment.
I would follow gsco re bonds . I might pass Bonds 101 but he looks like he could pass 301 .
freeride76 wrote:Can't see any evidence of upward pressure on wages around here
its rampant in my industry Steve. Wage growth over the last year has easily been upwards of 10% for at least half of my staff. And 5-10% for the remainder.
donweather wrote:freeride76 wrote:Can't see any evidence of upward pressure on wages around here
its rampant in my industry Steve. Wage growth over the last year has easily been upwards of 10% for at least half of my staff. And 5-10% for the remainder.
You dont have to be too specific, but roughly what industry?
As i see the same thing in the building industry.
Tech is a big one at the moment, fintech, cybersecurity and all sorts of similar fields are hungry for quality resources. Basically, if you are a good software engineer (or any engineer to be honest) or a computer scientist your employability opportunities are very strong.
It is also important to note that companies who cannot pay big salaries try to compensate with big benefits. Hence, working from anywhere is here to stay for some. And you will probably keep seeing more Teslas in Byron,
as they have been for the last 30 years.
Guardian published an article on Monday with some insights.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/24/australias-workfo...
gsco and Hutchy awesome stuff, thank you. Cheers for the link.
do benefits that are alternative to wage increases include on the job training and career path development?
Thanks for all the info guys *thumbs up*
Yes, it's cool to learn from fellow SN contributors. XJO getting poleaxed this arvo, as if it is linked in some way to yesterdays bond rout...
Wow, it would seem that the RBA may have lost control of short term bond yields and thus abandoned its quantitative easing short term bond yield target, and markets may now be pricing in a much sooner interest rate increase, according to today's market commentary:
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/rba-opts-against-defending-bond-002147...
bloomberg wrote:The Reserve Bank of Australia left its bond-yield target undefended on Friday, fueling expectations that policy makers will abandon the program as soon as next week.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/australias-central-bank-loses-yield-03...
reuters wrote:Australia's central bank on Friday lost all control of the yield target key to its stimulus policy as bonds suffered their biggest shellacking in decades and markets howled for rate hikes as soon as April.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-29/reserve-bank-waves-white-flag-on-...
abc wrote:Traders have forced the Reserve Bank into submission, with the RBA declining to enter the market to buy April 2024 federal government bonds to defend its interest rate target.
Unbelievable
Central Banks have some very smart people working for them . Not the smartest as they all work in the markets where the big bucks are made .
The Central Bankers would have wonderful spreadsheets and would believe them . Unfortunately the have never worked in the real world . They are not experienced at knowing the emotions of the markets . An uncontrollable beast that has a mind of its own . People like me who have worked in them for 30 years KNOW we don't know how they will react . We can only guess .
Twenty or 30 years ago a group of boffins developed a system that would always beat the market ( in theory ) . They attracted a big money to invest in the strategy . Long term Credit Capital Management .
No prize to guess what happened when they applied the system in the market . Something happened that their spreadsheets didn't predict . Off to the morgue .
Looking increasingly likely that Governor Phillip Lowe will/needs to get the ass. As recently as last RBA meeting he is still going on about no increase in cash rate until 2024. Tuesday's RBA meeting notes will make for more interesting viewing than the Cup...
If you haven't locked in a low rate with ya bank yet, could be worth considering doing so sometime soon. Rates heading north.
Is it too early to link the best speech from 'Margin Call'?
Stu - Sorry about this but I would like to change my opinion on a major view I gave you only a few days ago .
I knew the RBA's call that interest rates would not rise until 2024 .
I wanted to give myself some wriggle view and said rates could rise in 2023/4 .
After the news in the last 2 days I would like to offer a new opinion on when rates will rise - 2022 .
As a Winston Churchill once said to a woman berating him for changing his position, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, madam?”
Please don't berate me for this change .
"People like me who have worked in them for 30 years KNOW we don't know how they will react . We can only guess."
100%.
indo-dreaming wrote:donweather wrote:freeride76 wrote:Can't see any evidence of upward pressure on wages around here
its rampant in my industry Steve. Wage growth over the last year has easily been upwards of 10% for at least half of my staff. And 5-10% for the remainder.
You dont have to be too specific, but roughly what industry?
As i see the same thing in the building industry.
very similar. Engineering.
Hutchy 19 wrote:Spooky - If you look current rates are cheaper than 6% . Macquaries home loan rate is 2.23% with an LVR of 70% ( you need a 30% deposit ) .
I am not sure what point you are trying to make . If salaries haven't tripled 900k would be lot more for Joe now than 300k in 1988 on your numbers .
I don't know but if someone today borrows at 3% are they factoring in a possible move to 6% ?
If you do your figures you may see the reason why house prices have gone up a lot .
My point was in effect what $1 bought you 30 odd years ago now buys you only 33c worth.
Sunny Coast is rooted beyond belief. Its completely lost its little country vibe and now is just a shit fight of rude people smelling their own poos that have brought the rat race to town. There's definitely some bad vibes towards the newbs based on whats happened to the local kids etc now living in cars and tents. Not mutually exclusive to the Northern Sunny Coast I know but its BAD. And its only going to get worse.
bonza wrote:do benefits that are alternative to wage increases include on the job training and career path development?
Haha, in theory always yes but I guess it varies in practice. From my direct experience a lot of it self driven; one needs to push and seek those opportunities. For example, education support. I used that benefit a lot, it consisted of education cost subsidies and some extra leave days and it helped me improve my skillsets. However, you would probably be shocked at how many people didn't take the opportunity, the vast majority didn't use it. And I haven't seen a major company-wide or managerial push to get people using it, it's more like this thing buried somewhere on the internal website.
Here’s a question…? When the reason to not come to work is no longer a health directive…and all these people have moved based on being able to work remotely( for the interim) what happens when the bosses expect them all to come back as remote work full time is no longer accepted without attending hq.
Might make the dream changes have a different conundrum to face?
spookypt wrote:Here’s a question…? When the reason to not come to work is no longer a health directive…and all these people have moved based on being able to work remotely( for the interim) what happens when the bosses expect them all to come back as remote work full time is no longer accepted without attending hq.
Might make the dream changes have a different conundrum to face?
They will quit and find someone else to work with. There’s plenty of companies out there that are now 100% on board with remote work (esp in tech industry). The balance of power has shifted to the employees rather employers in professional industries and this will continue for a number of years until migration is back to historic levels.
Also don’t forget the people that have moved regionally are likely living either with a much reduced mortgage or no mortgage at all if they sold a city pad they have had for 10+ years so changing careers isn’t such a big deal either
thats it.
I always thought housing price growth here would be based on ability to service mortgages and therefore constrained by lower incomes compared to the cities.
In fact, housing prices regionally are just as set by house prices in the cities, if enough people moves from cities to regions, a process that has been massively accelerated by Covid.
Someone sells a house in the city for 2million, they can buy something outright for a mill and only need to work part time or start a business.
geek wrote:spookypt wrote:Here’s a question…? When the reason to not come to work is no longer a health directive…and all these people have moved based on being able to work remotely( for the interim) what happens when the bosses expect them all to come back as remote work full time is no longer accepted without attending hq.
Might make the dream changes have a different conundrum to face?They will quit and find someone else to work with. There’s plenty of companies out there that are now 100% on board with remote work (esp in tech industry). The balance of power has shifted to the employees rather employers in professional industries and this will continue for a number of years until migration is back to historic levels.
Also don’t forget the people that have moved regionally are likely living either with a much reduced mortgage or no mortgage at all if they sold a city pad they have had for 10+ years so changing careers isn’t such a big deal either
All good points and I don’t disagree but you can’t tell me everyone who’s moved is either a: cashed up and/or b: willing work in a job that pays less when their Sydney and Melbourne bosses say come back or the salaries gone. .
Some for sure…no doubt… but if you look in my part of the woods there’s no jobs nor industry nor blue chip business hiring plus $80k jobs. Except Noosa and SC council. Plenty of barrister and factory floor jobs but not a lot of roles that can support a million dollar mortgage and all that comes with it.
For me, I believe on top of everything else, this is very much a reality that as yet has not begun to unfold.
donweather wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:donweather wrote:freeride76 wrote:Can't see any evidence of upward pressure on wages around here
its rampant in my industry Steve. Wage growth over the last year has easily been upwards of 10% for at least half of my staff. And 5-10% for the remainder.
You dont have to be too specific, but roughly what industry?
As i see the same thing in the building industry.
very similar. Engineering.
Cheers
Chatting with a few crew in different industries / professions. A few are seeing increasing pressure to work from the office already (government / services). Some (consultants / accountants) have been told that they can continue to work from home for the foreseeable future. It’s a mixed bag
I haven’t seen many people become more productive working from home. Those that really like it are usually juggling family commitments and / or not having to commute. That doesn’t mean it’s efficient.
I’ve wondered how it will play out when person A is working from the office, is x% more efficient and person B is working from home and is x% less efficient. Will person B be happy with a pro-rata pay cut? Some will. The extra flexibility is money in the bank for some. Surfers are at the front of that queue. A lot won’t. Especially those with million $$$ mortgages.
I’ve already had one worker, who was a contractor brought in to support physical stocktake and data migration between systems, complain when he was asked to come in and…. do his job!
Yep that’s it. There’s some issues coming for those that that “work from home”. Certainly watching how busy bunnings has been at 930 am on a work day with certain clientele (work from homer’s) and the ironing piles at home don’t seem near as big when the weekends come round.
Working from home won’t work for all jobs/employees/employers. But it’s fair to say covid has certainly changed the way we all work remotely. I’m not convinced employers can now mandate full time office working (in certain industries). But let’s see what plays out.
A huge week in world Bond markets .
Central banks may have had their future plans changed for them . Where all this goes is up to the markets and any bodies guess . I really hope it doesn't get ugly .
DB FX strategist has his guess .
As Saravelos first discussed back in May, and repeated against more recently last week, "the general flattening of curves is backed up by the very latecycle dynamics of the global economy plus our pessimistic view on global r*." But what is happening now runs beyond macro and as the DB strategist writes, confirming what we said last week, "it is a plain and simple Value at Risk (VaR) shock driven by positioning and the inability to appropriately calibrate central bank reaction functions in such an uncertain environment."
To put things in context: the Aussie bank bill yield rise is the largest 3-day change since 1996 and represents a 6 standard deviation move. In Canada, it is the largest move since 2009 and a 4 standard deviation move.
This, as Saravelos writes, is the closest we can get to a distressed Treasury market and as the next chart shows Europe appears set to join the chaos as rate hike odds represented by 3M Euribor Dec 22s tumbled after last week's dismal ECB press conference in which Lagarde failed to push back against market expectations for tightening, indicating the market is now also expecting higher rates in the eurozone, a move which suggests that the ECB - which has been adamant there will be no tightening for a long time - is also losing control of the front-end."
Hutchy 19 wrote:A huge week in world Bond markets .
Central banks may have had their future plans changed for them . Where all this goes is up to the markets and any bodies guess . I really hope it doesn't get ugly .
DB FX strategist has his guess . Deutsche Bank .
As Saravelos first discussed back in May, and repeated against more recently last week, "the general flattening of curves is backed up by the very latecycle dynamics of the global economy plus our pessimistic view on global r*." But what is happening now runs beyond macro and as the DB strategist writes, confirming what we said last week, "it is a plain and simple Value at Risk (VaR) shock driven by positioning and the inability to appropriately calibrate central bank reaction functions in such an uncertain environment."
To put things in context: the Aussie bank bill yield rise is the largest 3-day change since 1996 and represents a 6 standard deviation move. In Canada, it is the largest move since 2009 and a 4 standard deviation move.
This, as Saravelos writes, is the closest we can get to a distressed Treasury market and as the next chart shows Europe appears set to join the chaos as rate hike odds represented by 3M Euribor Dec 22s tumbled after last week's dismal ECB press conference in which Lagarde failed to push back against market expectations for tightening, indicating the market is now also expecting higher rates in the eurozone, a move which suggests that the ECB - which has been adamant there will be no tightening for a long time - is also losing control of the front-end."
6 standards deviations move, that's sick!
Interesting dynamics at play here around Manly.
My current flatmate is heading back home near the end of the month and I've been searching for someone to replace him for about a month and the demand is very low.
I guess the rental market gets squeezed in Sydney by seasonal travellers etc which have been missing since the boarders closed and a lot of people have gone regional.
But this also aligns with the lack of staff available in nearly all businesses I talk to. All need workers.. Hopefully it rectifies sometime soon.
My PA has worked from home since COVID based on essentially the Health mandate. Suffice to say we have managed well. HOWEVER, thats not to say its been as productive nor as efficient as having her within the office doing what people do when they work within the walls of an organistaion listening, hearing helping assisting and acting on what goes on within the group by simple onsite ozmosis theory. So yes, under the Health Mandate we've maintained a degree of efficiency.
But with that said, with us getting back to a normal work cycle the idea of her not coming back to assist on the daily ins and outs of a modern workplace...? well that simply isnt an option. Does this new "thing" mean I am now too employ another person to do the part of the job she no longer does as she's now wanting to reside/work from home? Based on her doing no "work related in-office tasks" does that mean I pay her less $'s? I can say without fear nor favour once we start back on an equal front Nationally as a business I will need my staff back in HQ. If they want to "work" (I still laugh at that) from home thats OK....but it wont be for me. Everyone has the right to exercise their choice...but having a cake and eating it too is not an option for us as an organisation.
Yes the wokring from home has created certain positives which will carry over and be endoresed post covid but a football teams players still need to run on the field to do their job, as do we. Apple tried it, trying to run remote an R&D department through Zoom meetings...didnt work and going forward a remote workforce wont for many either. Just my 2c. Flame suit on.
Well the RBA scrapped its April 2024 bond yield target, which it abandoned in Friday anyway.
And it no longer makes explicit reference to maintaining the cash rate unchanged until 2024, and instead mentions that it will increase the cash rate when inflation is consistently within the 2-3% band.
So it’s now giving itself the leeway to raise the cash rate sooner. The market and most economists seem to be predicting a rates rise late 2022.
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/wall-st-climbs-rba-cash-rate-...
The full statement: https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-24.html
Thanks gsco . You have highlighted the most important details and save me having to read the statement .
The Titanic has turned ! I hope it missed the iceberg !!!!!!!
If you have a crystal ball can you give the the RBA's definition of "consistently" . The clock has started ticking as you know we are already above 2% .
Hutchy 19 wrote:If you have a crystal ball can you give the the RBA's definition of "consistently" . The clock has started ticking as you know we are already above 2% .
I certainly don't have a crystal ball.
Btw the RBA uses the word "sustainably" (not "consistently") actually and in (the second last paragraph of) today's monetary policy speech https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2021/sp-gov-2021-11-02.html the RBA says:
RBA wrote:The Board will not increase the cash rate until inflation is sustainably in the target range.
What they mean by that is of course anyone's guess, and it's probably intentionally vague, but the next sentence after this one may be telling;
RBA wrote:We are prepared to look through spikes in the inflation rate, as we have done with headline CPI inflation this year.
So it seems that they're happy to allow inflation to "wobble around a bit" including above the band at times. They haven't necessarily been happy to allow this in the past, for which central banks have received criticism - for potentially reacting and raising interest rates too soon.
I like that they seem to be defending themselves against some anticipated criticism and backlash for removing the explicit 2024 rates rise guidance, possibly from the general public borrowing money and taking their forward guidances literally/at face value...:
RBA wrote:I would now like to turn to a broader point and that is the nature of the RBA's forward guidance. As I have stressed on previous occasions, our forward guidance is based on the state of the economy, not the calendar. Our focus has been on returning inflation sustainably to the 2 to 3 per cent range and doing what we reasonably can to reach full employment. These are our goals and it is progress on these fronts that will continue to determine decisions about the cash rate. These decisions are not driven by the calendar.
We have, though, supplemented this state-based guidance with a reference to our forecasts and the calendar. We have done this to provide the community with our expected time frame and the factors that will influence that time frame. This in no way has constituted a promise that the cash rate would remain unchanged to any particular date. Rather, at the time of each policy statement we provided our best expectation of the timing of when the cash rate might change, recognising that expected timing can change.
Seems that they're getting a bit defensive.
Toby wants all the commision.....and good luck to you Mr Martin!
thanks GSCO.
they gave themselves a lot of wriggle room there.
If you want an agent to give you 100% then Toby is the one. He sold our place in Dee Why.
BB how are the crowds in Ulladulla coast these days? Seems like a lot of my sutherland shire friends moved there in the last ten years.
I find it hard to believe any percent of effort is required from a real estate agent to sell any property in Sydney in the last 20 years.
I've sold 7 times. IME real estate agents are useless parasites. The house sells itself
After years of stalling, Kings Forest is about to kick off construction soon (the Concept Plan was first lodged in 2007).
It'll have 4,500 new homes adjacent to Casuarina, with 11,000 new residents (2016 census had 35 residents).
Over 70,000 trees will be planted for the preservation of the local koala population at Kings Forest.
I assume that means koala habitat is being flattened for the development. What’s the habitat like there?
Block sizes starting at 240sqm oh my. These modern developments are ghastly eyesores.
billythekid wrote:I've sold 7 times. IME real estate agents are useless parasites. The house sells itself
Could not agree less.
A good realestate agent is essential, at least in the markets we've been selling in.
House 1: Agent A said ask for $XX, and be prepared to take 10% less. Agent B said "bullshit! Ask for offers over $XX minus 10%. That'll attract buyers. We'll make sure they compete." Got us $XX plus 20%.
House 2: Agent B said "Just list the offical valuation. It's super low, but that'll attract lots of first home buyers, and they're loaded at the moment due to record-low interest rates." Got us 2 x valuation.
House 1 was in a buyers market. House 2 recent hot Covid market.
only 11000 new neighbours say 2000 surf...i cant see a problem said the blind man .
groundswell the better reefs are usually well occupied but it's not too hard to find decent waves with manageable numbers most days. Numbers have started to build after the lockdown and I expect it to be much busier for the next few months.
An opinion and some facts .
■ The RBA ended its 0.1% target for the 3-year bond, but remains ultra-accommodative with the real cash rate -2.0% and QE programs of $498bn set to rise another $60bn, 2x the Federal Budget deficits over the same period! Governor Lowe rejected rate rises for 2022- the Dec-22 bill future at 1.3% is way too hawkish. However, on our view that the 1st rate rise is early-23 and then rates rise to neutral of ~2% over the following 18-months, the 3-year at 0.95% is nearing fair-value!
■ AUS’ V-reopening evidence continues to build: home prices in Oct-21 rose 1.5%MoM and 21.6%YoY- Lowe rejected using rates to cool housing- whilst non-rural commodity prices rose 3.6%MoM and 41.8%YoY. Europe’s manufacturing PMI remained resilient at 58.3.
so much for Covid destroying the economy
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers