House prices
velocityjohnno wrote:an oldie but a goodie
Appreciate this is old but gee it’s still a fascinating read.
Few interesting statements from it:
Because all asset hyperinflations revert to the mean, we can expect housing prices to decline roughly 38 percent from their peak as they return to something closer to the historical rate of monetary inflation.
The next bubble must be large enough to recover the losses from the housing bubble collapse. How bad will it be? Some rough calculations7: the gross market value of all enterprises needed to develop hydroelectric power, geothermal energy, nuclear energy, wind farms, solar power, and hydrogen-powered fuel-cell technology—and the infrastructure to support it—is somewhere between $2 trillion and $4 trillion; assuming the bubble can get started, the hyperinflated fictitious value could add another $12 trillion. In a hyperinflation, infrastructure upgrades will accelerate, with plenty of opportunity for big government contractors fleeing the declining market in Iraq. Thus, we can expect to see the creation of another $8 trillion in fictitious value, which gives us an estimate of $20 trillion in speculative wealth, money that inevitably will be employed to increase share prices rather than to deliver “energy security.” When the bubble finally bursts, we will be left to mop up after yet another devastated industry. FIRE, meanwhile, will already be engineering its next opportunity. Given the current state of our economy, the only thing worse than a new bubble would be its absence.
And that last paragraph above was written in 2008. Where do you think we are right now within those words!!
Just take a look at the stock market. Anything with clean, carbon neutral energy in it just goes boom upon IPO. Just take a look at the P/E ratio on most stocks on the stock market now. Ridiculous and unprecedented values. There’s only one way this can end.
Johnno - definitely not if I didn't have to ( eg wife was desperate to buy ) in the next 5 years . As we all no the market is going up very quickly ( and will probably keep doing this for a while yet ) .
There is an old adage in markets " Nothing fixes high prices better than high prices " .
A number of things will happen to correct the market in the next 5 years .
Increased supply . Federal and State governments will release land ( Crown ) for housing . Banks will tighten lending as they see more risk in the market . Interest rates will go up from record lows . People will continue to move out of the cities as they work from home .
There may also be the potential "Black Swan " events . If I could name them them they would be White Swans events like China taking over Taiwan .
Buying a home for the long term is a huge decision . Huge decisions should be the easiest to make so if in doubt wait .
Like we have been witnessing up and down the coast udo, prices, availability and population has been going though the roof. Even the last mini boom up here in early 2000's is nothing like this. Just waiting for the bubble to burst like it did last time.
This can’t be right. They promised!
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/rba-may-be-forced...
Blowin wrote:This can’t be right. They promised!
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/rba-may-be-forced...
Nice article which supports what I’ve been saying. 2022/23 is gonna be some very interesting times. Strap ya self in folks and enjoy the ride.
Pure clickbait.
If you read it, there was one true line in there: "Yet despite the threat of rising inflation forcing the RBA to raise interest rates, RBA Governor Philip Lowe remains committed to rates staying low until at least late 2024".
It was in the last Reserve Bank board minutes if you want the source quote.
If Phil with the Degree from MIT is so sure things won't change until 2024 why is he instructing the lenders to factor in 3% more on future loans now?
It’s the least intrusive way they can think of to try and cool things down.
Looks like north of Melbourne will have better demographics for house prices .
In the first 6 months 43000 Melbournians have left the city . 120000 jobs were lost in September which will continue the move north .
Interesting Don.
Something has to give soon, around $550k gets you a place in Lismore right on the edge of the flood zone, with a house which needs significant work i.e. needs to be stripped entirely back to bare wood and also have areas of rot repaired.
And people are fighting to buy them.
Unbelievable.
After seeing a dozen or so properties last week, I'm just about ready to look for options other than real estate.
Andy mate, it’s even worse in my area. 800k to a fucking million bucks is now entry level. Shite blocks (odd shape, horrendous terrian etc) are high 6’s.
Still selling like no tomorrow. Not so much the blocks..
Locals getting heavily priced out so others can have there summer house, summer short stay rental then lays dormant for 48 weeks of the year. Great fucking times.
Nick Bone wrote:Andy mate, it’s even worse in my area. 800k to a fucking million bucks is now entry level. Shite blocks (odd shape, horrendous terrian etc) are high 6’s.
Still selling like no tomorrow. Not so much the blocks..
Locals getting heavily priced out so others can have there summer house, summer short stay rental then lays dormant for 48 weeks of the year. Great fucking times.
100%
Nick Bone wrote:Andy mate, it’s even worse in my area. 800k to a fucking million bucks is now entry level. Shite blocks (odd shape, horrendous terrian etc) are high 6’s.
Still selling like no tomorrow. Not so much the blocks..
Locals getting heavily priced out so others can have there summer house, summer short stay rental then lays dormant for 48 weeks of the year. Great fucking times.
I think the MP (outside of Sorrento/Portsea/Westernport/Red Hill) has been undervalued in general for quite a while Mr Bone. Compare it to 1-1.5 hours north and south of Sydney (and even Surf Coast) and it could still be considered undervalued. Been a lot of purchases by people wanting to spend lockdown in a nicer location too using 10+ years of equity gained during the crazy melb boom.
On the same score as Nick:
Earlier this year a Coal Coast record was set for a house at Coalcliff. $4.715 million, hammer down to a celebrity hairdresser from Sydney using it as a holiday house.
More recently, the record jumped to $6.31 million for a house at Wombarra, sold to Microsoft Australia's head knob who, again, will use it as a holiday house.
$10 million for a house in Milton.
Where does it end?
People need a roof over their head, or not.
You get a Van Life culture going where more and more people simply can't put a roof over their head and the best off of them, live in cars.
That trend is now well underway.
Yeh lots living in vans down here too. The only solution is a big expansion of public housing so the people who work in an area or have a long connection to it can still afford to live there. There is no way that is happening under the LNP and hard to imagine Labor doing enough to make very much difference. The wave of gentrification will keep rolling on as it has done in so many.other countries.
This is a good read in The Guardian about Byron Bay house prices.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/17/horrific-for-the-c...
"If you owned property before this boom (last few years), you’ve most likely made more money in the value of your home than you could make in your entire life by saving your money."
Or you could say, that no matter how hard people save their money, getting an entry level house in places like Byron Bay or most other coastal towns is simply not feasible for the average Joe and Jill. For every dollar saved, house prices go up by much more.
I've seen this before in US ski resorts, and to keep a tourism town functioning, large scale employee housing is required. This isn't just for lifties and ski patrollers, it's for medical professionals, teachers, and upper management.
I will let you in on a little secret. When the local council does bite the bullet and designate an area for low cost housing the whinging and carry on will be enormous. The chief complainers will be the Johnnie New Mansions who are worried about their property values when the plebs move into the neighbourhood. These newbies never invested their money in a town, they invested their cash in a property they thought would go up in value.
when interest rates go up your probably going to see a lot of this happening around the country....
&ab_channel=FOX11LosAngeles
Has anyone had a peek in the bushes and sand dunes along the Southport Spit on the Goldy recently, between Main Beach and the Seaway?
Seems to be an increasing number of homeless people camping in there at night?
Also, my car got broken into in the Main Beach car park a few months back, by the passenger side window being smashed with a large rock in broad daylight while I was taking a quick swim...
Public housing for sure but it’s not addressing the cause. Pretty sure there’s broad agreement on this thread what the causes are. Only debate may be the level of degree of those causes. By addressing them now could help the first home buyers, young and vulnerable with potential interest rate increases by providing a serviceable mortgage that isn’t out of this world. But of course none of this will happen.
I got into housing market by moving 100km from the coast for a few years and doing a daily three hour commute by public transport. My timing was good but that was not just luck. A lot of planning and some good advice went into it. That was over 35 years ago so the curve has steepened for late starters since then but the chance is still there for many, if they want to do the hard yards. My sympathy is for the genuinely low income earners who have no hope.
35 years ago in Australian real estate is a fantasy world that non home owners only dream off. Regional escape for a chance of home ownership was smashed out of the ball park 12 months ago.
Well it was a fantasy that included 30 years of huge mortgage payments and a 20 year break on OS surf trips. Getting in is the easy part.
Didn’t mean that as a slight or non acknowledgement of the hard work and sacrifice and risk on your part or many of your generation to buy a home at that time. My comment just a reflection on the realties of our time
All good bonza.
Viclocal - you love to comment on things you know nothing about .
IF only you knew the Byron area and the history of the council . I will let you on a little secret . Hell will freeze over before they would even consider building low cost housing .
They are very green and VERY left . Always have been .
They would never approve this type of development . The surf club had trouble getting approval to paint their building in the clubs colours . Mostly white with some red and blue stripes .
They are anti development of any kind .
Another secret I can let you in on is that there is no available land in Byron . They would have to buy say 4-6 houses to build this project . Then they would have to change their planning as they hate high buildings ( which I think is good as Byron is not like Noosa ) .
They don't even have the money as they are nearly broke . Way too many councilor fact finding missions .
It has been the rich there ( like Strop and Delvine ) that have kept the footy club , golf club , surf club , sports club ( on the outskirts near the industrial estate ) going strong . They don't winge !
”Viclocal - you love to comment on things you know nothing about .”Oh the irony. Gold.
Byron Shire Council owns land in Mullum which they are considering using for low cost housing.
Absolutely typical of this extreme Left council . They are shockers .
"Cr Lyon said the only hurdle now was to get ministerial support."
He should have said that the only hurdle to funding this proposed Trust was finding someone to pay for it .
We came up with this great new idea and someone else can do the hard work and pay for it .
Council already owns the land.
I know as you pointed this out 76 . They need to ministerial support ( money )to build them ( assumption ) .
My sister was born at the hospital.
Incorrect.
They need ministerial support for the zoning.
"The amended planning proposal and supporting documentation has been submitted to the NSW Department of Planning, Industry & Environment (DPIE) for a 'gateway' determination. If DPIE supports the proposal, Council will then proceed with community consultation and public exhibition."
My daughter was born at Mullum Hospital.
You and Hutchy long lost relos FR? (haha)
Freeride - My sister was born in 73 my mum just said . I thought it was 74 . It was March 1 and we had huge floods so you will probably know the year .
We used to do our cross country around the hospital . On one run I was with a guy who lived in the Bay and he found and ate some mushies . Enjoyed the rest of the day in the sick bay .
Thanks for the 101 on town planning . I should have known as there have been problems with inside information with sate MP's .
One of my very close friends that still lives in the Bay worked at the council for 20 odd years . Left but still did surveying for a private group .
The council sound a long way from raising the money to build the projects . Amsterdam have probably done something similar so a fact finding mission also needs to happen ha ha .
The Mullum Hospital was demolished in 2019.
very sad.
Where do the locals now go ? Lismore , Murwillumbah , Ballina , Gold Coast ? Does the Bay have a small one ?
I have been reading comments on SN that have said the NNSW system has been full for 10 years .
Make me feel sorry for SG , the health care workers as well as the locals .
New Byron hospital at Ewingsdale.
Otherwise Ballina to get stitched up or Lismore or Tweed for anything serious.
"Otherwise Ballina to get stitched up or Lismore or Tweed for anything serious."
Blocked chakra?
New Kingscliff hospital (around the corner from the SN office) should be up and running in a few years. It's replacing Tweed (and is pretty big too).
Blocked chakras can be dealt with using positive affirmations and incense.
I'm heading to Kingy next week.. should be interesting to see the changes. I'll bring the big first aid kit just in case by the sounds of it.
TS,
Can you use Draino on blocked chakras? Asking for a friend
Incense ...lovely stuff ..binding Glue is Formaldehyde and other such evils
Yep , Draino and Formaldehyde are well known Chakra unblockers.
As well,,Chakra alignments can be done at your nearest panel beater. Tell them I sent ya.
Nick Bone wrote:Locals getting heavily priced out so others can have there summer house, summer short stay rental then lays dormant for 48 weeks of the year. Great fucking times.
And ask yourself this. What does that do for the local economy there also? Starves the small businesses because no locals around to support them.
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers