House prices
Don - the home is not included in the assets test but if you sell it and get $1m this may be tested .
If you are 65 and over you can add to super with some of the proceeds ( Disclaimer - this is not financial advice Shagger of Sheep , I am not a tax advisor ) .
Jack of all trades , expert at none .
Hutchy 19 wrote:Don - the home is not included in the assets test but if you sell it and get $1m this may be tested .
If you are 65 and over you can add to super with some of the proceeds ( Disclaimer - this is not financial advice Shagger of Sheep , I am not a tax advisor ) .
Jack of all trades , expert at none .
If you sell it and come out with $1m in the hand I’m pretty sure you can live damn comfortably off of that!!
I’m still not seeing how pensioners are the losers here. It’s the pensioners grand kids who are the losers in all of this.
Not all homes are sold for a million Don . A friend told me this week that his father in law had to pay a $700k deposit to get into a nursing home in Byron . The kids had to help find the money .
Most pensioners I know live off the smell of an oily rag . A different generation . Anything that is left when they die goes to their kids and grand kids .
Get the f..k off their back . Keep picking on me instead .
I know your type . You will bag them to make your point on this thread and then support them to make a point on another .
Typical hypocrite !!!!
If the money laundering laws were applied to real estate -as they have avoided doing for over a decade- the market would collapse overnight.
As far as I know they are Blowin .
Laundered money is not as big an issue as government make out . They love to call this out as a reason to get rid of cash and move to digital currencies .
Please provide a link that says property is exempt from the laws . I do know that criminals have bought property through ill-gotten gains but this is illegal and they can loose them if proved .
quite a few properties owned in Byron Shire when drug dealers had to suddenly leave town.
squatting rights.
Inflated asset prices are having a major effect . Zerohedge In the US .
"While we were digging through the data for today's household net worth report we stumbled upon something that seem beyond ridiculous: the ratio of Household Net Worth to Disposable Net Income. At 786% in the latest quarter, the chart at first appears to be a mistake but we triple checked it, and... well, here it is.
The latest, all-time high print is an increase from 698% in Q1 and also represents the biggest quarterly increase in history!
I wasn’t referring to the local “entrepreneurs” pushing product domestically. Long live the few remaining Australian cottage industries I say! There’s bigger fish to catch ….$1B into Aussie property in 2015 alone.
Australian property: a haven for money laundering criminals
By Unconventional Economist
Transparency International Australia (TIA) has lodged a submission to the Senate Inquiry into the adequacy and efficiency of Australia’s AML-CTF regime, which claims Australia property is a haven for money laundering:
The FATF has said Australia is seen as an “attractive destination for foreign proceeds, particularly corruption-related proceeds flowing into real estate, from the Asia-Pacific”.
Our weak AML/CTF legislation and enforcement, favourable liquidation processes and a stable banking system creates a ‘perfect storm’ for criminals. Australia’s Doors are Wide Open…
The real estate sector has continually been identified as a weak spot and a large compliance hole in Australia’s AML/CTF regime.
Large sums of illicit funds can be concealed and integrated into the legitimate economy through real estate. Criminals may be drawn to real estate as a channel to launder illicit funds due to the ability to buy real estate using cash, to disguise the ultimate beneficial ownership of real estate, the relative stability and reliability of real estate investments, and the opportunity to renovate and improve real estate, thereby increasing its value. To avoid direct involvement in ML processes, criminals may seek to buy property using a third party or family member as a legal owner, usually a ‘cleanskin’ with no prior criminal record.
They may use loans or mortgages to layer and integrate illicit funds into high-value assets such as real estate. The AUSTRAC said in a 2015 report that the laundering of illicit funds through real estate was “an established money laundering method in Australia”, with $1 billion in suspicious transactions coming from Chinese investors into Australian property in 2015-2016…
Criminality finds opportunity. Australia’s system provides opportunity through its inability to meet the FATF recommendations and to keep up with emerging ML issues and with the variety of ways that money is laundered. Systemic and large-scale breaches have occurred – undetected by the AUSTRAC in recent years…
Australia has been considering passing the second tranche of its AML/CTF Act since 2006. Australia must extend the AML/CTF legislation to cover DNFBP professions as the current rules are not enough to prevent ML/TF…
The FATF has called for Australia to ensure lawyers, accountants, real estate agents, precious stones dealers, and trust and company service providers understand their ML/TF risks, and are required to effectively implement AML/CTF obligations and risk mitigating measures in line with the FATF Standards.
The 2019 FATF visit to review the fourth-round mutual evaluation, that got cancelled, was expected to condemn Australia for becoming a laggard in the Asia-Pacific region on ML reform…
To support the AML/CTF regime, Australia needs to also implement a publicly accessible centralised beneficial ownership register…
Overall, Australia has low compliance with the FATF recommendations… Australia should not use the COVID-19 pandemic as a reason to further delay the proposed Tranche 2 reforms as the Global Financial Crisis was in 2010. As in any crisis, COVID-19 has heightened corruption risks that increase the likelihood of ML and TF…
Australia is one of only 8% of countries assessed by the FATF’s 4th Mutual Evaluation process as being totally non-compliant with all DNFBP Recommendations.72 Australia has been non-compliant with all three DNFBP recommendations for the longest period since deficiencies were identified by the FATF’s 4th Round Mutual Evaluation in 2015…
CONCLUSION
In summary, TIA calls for the widening our AML/CTF legislation. Australia needs to keep up with global developments to prevent it becoming even more of a hotspot for the world’s dirty money…
This is a critical opportunity for Australia to ensure that our AML/CTF regime makes a substantial impact, nationally and globally, in preventing illicit funds that enable transnational, and serious and organised crime.
This farce has been going on for most of my professional life. When I worked at the Australian Treasury between 2003 and 2006, the FATF developed global AML rules which Australia committed to implementing in 2006. Some of my Treasury colleagues in the International Economy Division worked directly on the issue.
Fifteen years later, we are still waiting in vain for the Tranche 2 AML rules to be applied to real estate gatekeepers (i.e. real estate agents, accountants and lawyers). Over that time, Australia has become one of the world’s worst laggards on AML and our property market has become one of the worst havens for dirty money.
The federal government already conducted stakeholder consultations on AML in 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2017. And each time the rules were put into the ‘too hard’ basket and postponed.
I don’t expect this inquiry to be any different. Shadowy “vested interests” negatively impacted by the reforms will push back and will get their way. In the property narco state of Australia, corruption wins every time.”
+
Austrac: Money laundering inflating property values
By Unconventional Economist
The CEO of AUSTRAC – the Australian Government agency responsible for detecting, deterring and disrupting criminal abuse of the financial system – has again warned that Australian property is being used to launder illicit funds:
Austrac has warned that laundering the proceeds of crime through property purchases can drive up prices and keep legitimate buyers out of the market…
[It] warned of “widespread or concentrated real estate purchases with the proceeds of crime, driving property prices up and pricing legitimate buyers out of the market”.
“Serious and organised crime groups can use real estate as an investment or as a lifestyle benefit to integrate the proceeds of crime into the legitimate economy,” the report said…
“The sale and purchase of real estate presents particular appeal to money launderers looking to conceal large sums of money in few transactions, or who use corporate vehicles and trusts to disguise beneficial ownership.
It feels like Groundhog Day. Fifteen years ago, the Australian Government agreed to implement the Tranche 2 global AML rules for lawyers, accountants and real estate agents in a bid to prevent laundering of illicit funds, especially into Australian property.
However, these reforms have been continually postponed amid fierce lobbying by shadowy “vested interests” negatively impacted by the reforms. This has led to Australia having the weakest AML rules in the world pertaining to lawyers, accountants and real estate agents:
Australia’s intransigence has seen a conga-line of international authorities – including the Paris-based Financial Action Taskforce (FATF) and Transparency International – deride Australia’s failure to act, which has continually fallen on deaf ears within the federal government.
Accordingly, Australia has been cemented as a money laundering safe haven, with property the go to choice for illicit foreign funds.
Nothing will change because our corrupt politico-housing complex.
Just like the with a Federal ICAC, our government has been undertaking a go-slow for a decade on our money laundering laws.
Check the coverage compared to other nations then ask yourself why our government would deliberately avoid any genuine attempts at preventing international money laundering in our country.
Hint: corruption.
The thing that chart doesn't show is the impact the FBI and IRS have filling those unticked boxes in the US. We don't have the equivalents here.
Blowin -"If the money laundering laws were applied to real estate -as they have avoided doing for over a decade" WRONG !
As I said it is against the law . As I said people break the law . As I said the government ( AUSTRAC ) will use it as an excuse to get rid of cash .
You are Blowin up the wrong tree .
I know AML rules back to front due to the work I do . You are wrong to say they are weak in Australia .
It is not up to Real Estate Agents to police where $500k comes from to buy a house . It is up to the bank to police the origin of the money . I don't think any houses are bought with a wheelbarrow full of cash .
I bought a house with cash.
You’re right and AUSTRAC and Transparency International Australia are wrong. It’s so obvious.
An acquaintance of mine paid his way through university growing hydro. He rented a non-descript house in the northern suburbs of a major capital city. He ended up buying that house in cash with the proceeds he made growing dope.
I paid for the majority of my house here in Japan in cash.
People do buy houses in cash.
Probably before AUSTRAC was even thought of and AML was an issue . May I ask what decade ?
Since terrorism became a concern transfers of money is , supposedly , very closely monitored .
I said you were wrong that the AML don't apply to real estate . The regulators are right that they don't catch all the crooks . They will also use the issue to get rid of cash .
Are you happy for all cash to be Blowed into dust Blowin ? You can't buy a house with cash now and you won't be able to pay a baby sitter in the future with it .
“Since terrorism became a concern transfers of money is , supposedly , very closely monitored .“
Just ignore the Panama papers.
“Just ignore the Panama papers”
and the Crown Casino.
Fliplid wrote:“Just ignore the Panama papers”
and the Crown Casino.
Ha! Yup.
“Probably before AUSTRAC was even thought of and AML was an issue . May I ask what decade ?”
April last year. You’re right that they want to do away with cash but you’re wrong about everything else.
Here’s a book you should read.
https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/144081100614?chn=ps&norover=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=...
an old excasy dealer i knew bought a penthouse in cronulla in a 5 star luxury apartment building with money he made from selling a lot of ecstasy pills at 21 years old paid it off in full. hes living the dream. the dealer who sold him the pills would deliberately give him good pills one week then k bombs the next week just to mess with him but he was the guy to get rid of thousands. living clean these days no deals or pills but earning money from rentals and working full time with a family.
Blowin - I could be very wrong ( have been in the past ) but I find it very hard to believe you paid for it in cash ie denominations of paper money . Was it in a wheelbarrow or a big brief case ? How long did it take to count ? Cash in a bank , then transferred , is not what we are talking about .
There is cash in bank accounts that have been , somehow , made clean . This then can be used to buy anything .
Don't expect Estate Agents to have the tools to work out where it came from .
... for Beijing the real risk is not whether foreign creditors are impacted - in fact Evergrande's willingness to default on offshore bondholders while preserving operational cash flow and continuing to build homes shows just how much China "cares" about Blackrock's P&L - but how an Evergrande crisis could impact China's massive, $60 trillion, property sector, something which CCB International, the Chinese investment bank, touched on in a recent research note in which it said that Evergrande "contagion risk has spread from financing to land sales, property sales, project deliveries and home prices."
And indeed, as the FT reports this morning, some very ominous cracks in China's property market - which according to Goldman is the largest asset class globally - are starting to emerge.
In a letter to the Shaoxing municipal government in eastern Zhejiang province, the local office of developer Sunac China appealed for “policy assistance” as it was struggling through what it called a "turning point in China’s real estate industry."
"We have never experienced such a radical change in the external environment," Sunac’s Shaoxing office said, pointing to a 60% year-on-year fall in home sales over the summer.
"The market is almost frozen," it added in the letter, which was first reported by the Financial Times. “The radical change in policy and environment has seriously disrupted our business and made it very difficult to maintain normal operations.”
Blowin - Any feedback on how you paid cash for your house .
If anyone came into our office with a brief case full of cash alarms and sirens would go off . We would have to call the cops .
I imagine it would be the same with a Real Estate agent .
I took the cash into the bank and deposited it. A couple of backpacks full of fifties. Ironically enough I now have no cash at all except for a couple of hundred dollars worth of rupiah left over from my last Indo trip. I still vehemently oppose a cashless society but it seems I’ve abandoned it myself. The meagre amounts I have not invested now sit in the banks I formerly despised so much. I still hate the banks but cannot dispute their usefulness. Life is full of contradictions.
Tell you what, walking around with the equivalent of many years of someone’s life on your back gives pause for thought. Knowing that the bits of paper you carry are not much different from the reams of paper found everywhere around you from supermarket receipts to newsagents full of magazines to empty chip packets , but this paper could get you killed or convince someone to kill for you. It could make people abandon everything they claim to hold dear. It’s crazy to realise the power we humans have vested into arbitrary objects which would otherwise have no inherent worth.
I distinctly remember stopping for a coffee with these backpacks full of cash but finding my wallet was empty and paying for the coffee with card so that I didn’t open the bags in the cafe, lest bundles of pineapples spilled all over the floor. It was quite an interesting experience.
Hutchy 19 wrote:Not all homes are sold for a million Don . A friend told me this week that his father in law had to pay a $700k deposit to get into a nursing home in Byron . The kids had to help find the money .
Most pensioners I know live off the smell of an oily rag . A different generation . Anything that is left when they die goes to their kids and grand kids .
Get the f..k off their back . Keep picking on me instead .
I know your type . You will bag them to make your point on this thread and then support them to make a point on another .
Typical hypocrite !!!!
Blow me!!
You know nothing about me so stop making assumptions.
I wasn’t bagging pensioners. Far from it. I was merely pointing out the majority of pensioners already own a house. Their grandkids don’t and probably never will unless they inherent one.
“the fundamentals of weak population growth and affordability concerns are getting set to overcome the effects of cheap money, FOMO (fear of missing out) and TINA (there is no alternative).”
Yet more evidence (in case there are those yet to be convinced) that Australia’s high high levels of population growth have played a major role in unaffordability.
AndyM wrote:“the fundamentals of weak population growth and affordability concerns are getting set to overcome the effects of cheap money, FOMO (fear of missing out) and TINA (there is no alternative).”
Yet more evidence (in case there are those yet to be convinced) that Australia’s high high levels of population growth have played a major role in unaffordability.
Blindboy and Vic Local both said that wasn’t true.
I’m not sure why you need more evidence than that?
Those were definitely the names that spring to mind.
Front page of the SMH.
The IMF warns that Australia's property market needs to cool down.
The fucking IMF!
The institution that aims to "secure financial stability, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world."
IMF Australia's chief says that "increasing interest rates would not be the right instrument", however reducing lending to investors is an option.
Wonder if the ruling class will pay any attention.
“The long history of Sydney housing in particular tends to be a rocket ride, followed by a dip and then a long plateau”
Define dip? Compared to when? Is a plateau bad if interest rates don’t rise significantly? Will they?
As a bearish assessment it’s pretty piss weak.
Maybe if labour could put on the table again the housing tax reforms so sorely needed Pascoe’s observations would hold more weight
Good article though. Thanks don.
And yes immigration. which is about to ramp up in 2022 back to pre covid levels if not more as we all know.
was that supposed to be a bearish assessment?
I took three things away: limited supply, pent up demand and cheap money.
The only thing slowing it down is prices are so insanely high.
I posted this on another thread but obviously has implications on the housing market . The momentum will continue but I hope it slows so as not to trap too many sellers ( why sell when prices are going up ) .
Australia is poised to recover strongly ( a second half comeback ) as soon as the shackles are released .
Let the good times ROLL .
■ AUS Household Wealth in 2Q21 rose 6.1%QoQ and 20.9%YoY to a record US$12.77 trillion, 20.6% above pre-COVID levels. The wealth ratio rose to a record 895%, 107ppts above pre-COVID levels. This points to a V-consumer boom as 2Q21’s 9.7% Saving Rate falls below 4% and $180bn of excess saving is spent- altogether 13-14% of GDP!
I don't know how people over east can afford rent living in Sydney or Melbourne. The prices have gone way above the minimum wage or even earning 30 something dollars an hour half your pay is going into rent.
Hopefully where i live will stay low but i don't think it will there are no places to rent everywhere is full and people camping have had to camp on vacant blocks, even outside of holiday time.
The cheapest places i found were in Port Kembla ($300 a week for a 2 bedroom unit) most around $400 and Nowra around $350 a week for a small unit.Sydney has gone into around $600 to $800 a week in Newtown and Sutherland shire. rip off. im paying $105 a week near excellent surf where there's always a wave somewhere unless the winds west which is rare.
Housing starts are predicted to be up 8% next year and 10% the year after ( 230000 ) . Renovations/alterations are expected to remain at high levels .
A busy time ahead for our building industry .
Hutchy 19 wrote:Housing starts are predicted to be up 8% next year and 10% the year after ( 230000 ) . Renovations/alterations are expected to remain at high levels .
A busy time ahead for our building industry .
The shortage of materials and skilled labour will put paid to that. I can't see material supply issues sorting itself out short term. As for skilled labour, well our denuded training industry started that problem years ago and will take years to fix if not decades.
Hutchy 19 wrote:Housing starts are predicted to be up 8% next year and 10% the year after ( 230000 ) . Renovations/alterations are expected to remain at high levels .
A busy time ahead for our building industry .
It's already super busy time for builders when they are allowed to work or can get materials.
Drafts people in Vic are saying they are the busiest the have been in 20+ years, big wait on getting plans drawn up, most wont even take the work or give a quote as too busy.
Material shortages are an issue, but that's down to a number of things.
-Timber shortage in USA, more of our timber is going there as they are paying much more.
-All kinds of back logs on supply issued caused by Covid
-To a degree a result of fires
-All round increased demand.
If people are willing to wait builders prices are way up too, to cover rising material cost and just because they are busy so can pick and choose and charge more, and they won't being putting prices back down even if things get better, so new home prices will increase, that id imagine would only be another factor to push realestate prices up all round.
If you are a Sydneysiders and you consider yourself a True Australian, you’ll start acclimating to drinking your own shit in order to keep house prices on their upwards trajectory.
It’s the Aussie way!
Indo - I know timber prices have fallen dramatically in the US in the last 3 months so hopefully this logjam has been lessened .
Population ponzi aside. treatment of wastewater for potable water is standard practise for many who live on the other side of the range by a river. It's completely safe and palatable. done all around the world too. washed down a with a tasty dose of fluoride (hi short). its a good thing and in our water scarce country should happen more. pretty sure they do it Perth now too?
bonza wrote:Population ponzi aside. treatment of wastewater for potable water is standard practise for many who live on the other side of the range by a river. It's completely safe and palatable. done all around the world too. washed down a with a tasty dose of fluoride (hi short). its a good thing and in our water scarce country should happen more. pretty sure they do it Perth now too?
You’d think that in our water scarce country the idea of not artificially raising the population by another 20million people would be an option?
Even the Greens want to pump infinite people into Australia. Maybe think that turnover of humans and their decomposing bodies will eventually improve the topsoil?
Body composting? Yes another good idea we should all do.. haha but urrghmm yes agreed re pop ponzi.
Largely a bunch of twats, but that last para is pure bullshit.
The Australian Greens believe that:
The current level of population, population growth and the way we produce and consume are outstripping environmental capacity. Australia must contribute to achieving a globally sustainable population and encourage and support other nations to do the same.
More points here:
It's not just a production shortage though. I've heard some construction products made overseas, in the EU for instance, are being shipped to the US as a priority because they are prepared to pay top dollar for shipping costs. Seems like the "America First" tariffs have ended up being "Covid-19" tariffs.
IMO its time for the Greens to back those principles up with some hard figures on what a sustainable population actually is.
Oh yeah, the Greens sure do love to highlight their dedication to the Australian environment. Nothing, but nothing will make them compromise on the issue.
Nothing except the devotion to woke stupidity which finds them acting as chorus for Big Business’ demands for endless coolies. Here they are actually rejecting an LNP call to limit 457’s a few years ago. They’re demanding the LNP lift its environmentally destructive human import game!
“The Turnbull government’s plan to scrap the 457 skilled migration visa faces new hurdles in the Senate with the Greens set to refer it to a committee to examine if it could harm the economy, hobble individual businesses or put at risk Australia’s multicultural fabric.
Trade spokeswoman Sarah Hanson-Young will move on Monday to secure crossbench and opposition support for an inquiry into the replacement of the 457 class with a pared down system with fewer eligible occupations and shorter visa periods, and which is separated from subsequent citizenship eligibility…
“If Australia is going to attract the type of expertise, intelligence and experience that we need, we have to engage with our region and the wider international community,” Senator Hanson-Young said.
“This inquiry will help to untangle some of the mess that was made when Malcolm Turnbull decided to use the cheap politics of racism and crass anti-migrant sentiment to appease the conservative rump of his own party…
“To stride confidently into the global future, we will need to attract and retain the best and brightest minds to our innovation, IT and education sectors. That can only be achieved through careful consideration of policy, not sloganeering and jingoistic hyperbole”…
Until now, 457 visas lasted four years and holders were able to apply for permanent residency at their conclusion and then serve as little as a 12-month waiting period before applying for full Australian citizenship.
However, the new arrangements will limit most visas – particularly in the lower paid occupations – to two years with a single renewal and no access to permanent residency at the conclusion.“
Maybe you think that last link was a bit too old and no longer indicative of the Green’s current stance? Here they are last week. Fuck the koalas, the threat to water security and world beating habitat clearance rates….we’ve got to prove our multicultural credentials even if it kills us and everything else on the continent…
“The party’s immigration spokesman, Nick McKim, told the Financial Review that the measure, which would also apply to other visa categories, would help ease the national skills shortage.
“Many people with skilled visas have got jobs waiting for them in Australia. They’ve applied successfully for jobs. They have employers who want them and desperately need them, yet they are stuck overseas unable to make it Australia to take up their jobs,” said Senator McKim…
“We know through direct contact in my office that many people who hold temporary visas, including skilled visas, are reconsidering coming to Australia and exploring options to go to other countries, including Canada and European countries,” he said.
“The risk is that we will ultimately miss out on people coming to Australia who can make a great positive contribution to our society and our economy because we have ignored them and marginalised them for 18 months.”
"IMO its time for the Greens to back those principles up with some hard figures on what a sustainable population actually is."
I know they're not good with numbers... but geez, sometimes they really seem to avoid any numbers at all...
the guiding philosophy?
"Back in 2016, San Francisco voters approved a measure allowing non-citizens, including undocumented immigrants, to vote in local school board elections. It was a practical step undertaken at a local level in an ongoing project to erase the distinction between citizen and non-citizen driven by an unusual coalition of left activists and economic libertarians. The former proceeded from an ever-expanding commitment to human rights impinging upon territorial sovereignty in pursuit of the evacuation of the category of the nation-state itself at work within certain precincts of academia and the activist NGO-sphere; the latter had at their disposal economic projections that the free movement of labor, once a slogan of the internationalist Left, would yield enormous gains to global economic efficiency supported by and serving the interests of globalized corporations.
Open borders was the place where anarcho-capitalism, traditional Left utopian ("no Gods of Masters") anarchism, and the bureaucratic organs of institutional governance -- where the Koch Brothers, George Soros, the crusty punks of Portland antifa, and the international lawyers -- converged in a common pursuit of a shared end. From each of its component parts, the movement derived a distinctly-valenced claim to stand at the vanguard of moral and material improvement.
The contradictory impetus behind each faction's commitment mattered less than the ensuing output -- the collective pursuit of open borders through a series of incremental advances that would over time drain away the support for the maintenance of the citizen-non-citizen distinction and its replacement by a new moral consensus that it was the role of these movements to conjure into existence in the act of achieving its ends in fact. Papering over the contradictions while conjoining the postively-valenced aspects of the movement would have the polemical benefit of making anyone opposed to their goals at once intellectually benighted, morally backward, and dedicated to economic enfeeblement -- stupid, immoral, and poor..."
https://wesleyyang.substack.com/p/undocumented-citizens-and-the-new
which seems to have trumped the party's initial purpose...
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers