House prices
VLocal
You have made it clear . You love Labor (Socialist ) and hate Liberal ( Conservative ) .
You hate Howard - paid off our bills ( should of spent more on infrastructure imo ) and balanced our budget which both Labor and Libs have again unbalanced .
You hate Abbott and Trump for securing boarders .
You hate Churchill , Regan and Thatcher .
You love Dan , Rudd , Gillard , Shorten , Albanese , Tredeau , Macron , Merkel and Biden .
You love the UN , WHO , CDC , China and Fauci .
You love swearing and abusing people .
Fuck. who leaked the love / hate list to Hutchy 19?
I want answers people. And if it was you GuySmiley, you are dead to me.
Don't blame Smiley . Unfortunately I know your type well .
Seeing all issues through rose ( red ) glasses . Refuse to look at anything objectively and listen or consider another opinion .
To shout , abuse and bully thinking that that approach works . It doesn't cower all people , most just walk away .
They wear this approach as a badge of honour . They are proud of themselves . They want everyone ( including their kids ) to act just like them . F..k every one else .
Luckily they are in the minority but much more often on your side of the political fence VLocal and Roadkill .
No group does hate better than the left .Tens of Millions of innocent people have died because of it in the last 100 years .
Not me VL but may I say it’s pointless engaging with hutchy, it’s been very clear from the get go he’s a {insert your favourite derogatory terms here} only interested in sucking up all your oxygen / positive energy.
Smiley - you gave me a belly laugh with this comment .
" only interested in sucking up all your oxygen / positive energy. "
VL , like you , do not do engage !
"Don't blame Smiley . Unfortunately I know your type well ."
Fucking hilarious mate. You wouldn't know the first thing about me champ. I will give you a clue though.
My hatred of the LNP is due tho their corruption, racism, misogyny, and anti-science idiocy. These are all deal breakers for me. I'd be happy to live under a centre right PM like Turnbull or Hewson.
They'd never cover up rapes in ministerial offices. They wouldn't treat the voting public like idiots. They'd never let corruption flourish to the current LNP levels. They'd never reject legislation to make workplaces safe for women. They'd recognise problems like CC and HQ and at least try to fix them. And they'd stand on their record, and not try to be re-elected using some fucked up marketing campaign like Scumo does.
Australia currently has a charlatan PM who is middle management at best. This is a dog who fails up because he is backed by powerful people. He was compromised the day he won the dodgiest pre-selection battle in Australian political history. One that was steeped in racism and flat out media bullying. the bloke who won pre-selection for Cook, beating Scumo something like 80-8, received a massive defamation payout last year.
There's two reasons why Scumo hasn't been stabbed in the back yet by his own side. 1. They realise there's nobody as electable as the daggy dad conman. 2. Scumo earns his loyalty by turning an absolute blind eye to all the shitfuckery that goes on in his party. There's literally no sanction for being a crook, being completely incompetent, or being a fucking lunatic like Kelly, Christensen, Joyce, Rennick, etc etc in the LNP
VL as you said -"Fuck. who leaked the love / hate list to Hutchy 19?"
After only a few weeks seeing your posts it was easy to work out your hates and loves .
"Fucking hilarious mate. You wouldn't know the first thing about me champ. I will give you a clue though."
You have contradicted yourself in less than an hour . Very predictable .
You then ramble on repeating the same arguments . Predictable and expected .
"I'd be happy to live under a centre right PM like Turnbull or Hewson."
Then you lie and show how misinformed you are . Predicable and expected . Hewson was never PM and Turnbull has never been centre right . When he showed his true colours ( red not blue ) they kicked him out . He originally wanted to be a Labor MP ( even they didn't want him ) .
I can read you and your brethren like a book . A horror story .
I know what you will respond with before you have even worked it out .
I know Hewson was never PM you dopey fucker. I just said I'd be happy to live under a centre right PM like Hewson. He at least had some basic fucking decency to outline a policy platform, and he had a genuine scholarly background on economics. Didn't always agree with the bloke, but never felt he treated the voting public like idiots. Even got to meet him at a conference and was still impressed 20 years after he lost in 1993.
Turnbull a red? Oh FFS, that's just Young Liberal twaddle. He was a merchant banker that made a fortune doing deals for the big end of town. Hardly a commie champ.
Turnbull's big three crimes were.
1. Daring to believe that climate change was real.
2. Daring to believe SSM was OK
3. Daring not to cave into the lunatics like Canavan, Joyce, Rennick, and Abbott.
Turnbull had basically upset the alt-right reactionary / religious nutter camp in the LNP and that's why they stabbed him in the back. But Hey, wasn't that fun. Dutton was too stupid to count to 43 and then the opportunist Scumo burst through the pack to claim the ultimate prize. There was rampant bullying, especially of female MPs and plenty of them quit in disgust.
And things have only got worse since then. What sort of cunt government covers up rapes of young female staffers?
Nothing more than a pack of tip rats.
I knew you would respond like that .
Hewson - " he had a genuine scholarly background on economics. " HaHa . Keating made mince meat out of him when he could not work out the GST on a cake . Very prepared he wasn't and never had the brains to be PM . You are too funny .
"Turnbull a red? Oh FFS, that's just Young Liberal twaddle. He was a merchant banker that made a fortune doing deals for the big end of town. Hardly a commie champ."
It might surprise you that a lot of merchant wankers are very left . One of my good friend for example .
If you would like I will try and get him to confirm ( if I can get him at his Portsea holiday house ) . It is Tuesday so maybe playing golf at his second club Sorrento .
Look at all the guys like Brack running the largest money managers in Australia . Superfunds .
Showing that you have no idea is getting too predictable and taking the fun out our " engagements " !
I wont mention what I know about Labor coverups with the fairer sex . Too sensitive .
I know what your thinking VL.
Hutchy is so dumb he does not know that his mate can't play golf due to lockdowns . I do know this as I am not allowed to play at the other club he is a member of . He is probably surfing .
Hewson - " he had a genuine scholarly background on economics. " HaHa . Keating made mince meat out of him when he could not work out the GST on a cake . Very prepared he wasn't and never had the brains to be PM
Hilarious Hutchy19.
Here's Hewson's academic qualifications before entering parliament.
Qualifications and Occupations before entering Federal Parliament
PhD (Johns Hopkins University).
BEc(Hons) (University of Sydney).
MA (Johns Hopkins University).
MA (University of Saskatchewan).
Executive Director at Macquarie Bank Ltd.
Economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Columnist.
Government and Business consultant.
Economist at the International Monetary Fund.
Economist at the Bureau of Census and Statistics.
Economic Adviser to Federal Treasurer, the Rt Hon. P Lynch from 1976 to 1977.
Economic Adviser to the Hon. J Howard from 1977 to 1983.
Professor of Economics at the University of New South Wales from 1978 to 1987.
Head of the School of Economics at the University of New South Wales from 1983 to 1986.
The funniest thing is, you reckon this bloke aint smart enough to be PM. By your standards, Scumo isn't smart enough to wipe George Christensen's fat arse after a big night in seedy Manilla bars.
You can have all the academic qualifications under the sun but he was way out of his depth with Keating and his smarts .
As I said Keating turned him into jelly with one question about the GST calculations of a cake . Keating would have known how it should have been calculated .
The GST was the number 1 policy of Hewson's bid to become PM . He designed it ( it was Keating's
idea ) and had responsibility to argue its case . With one question Keating was able to turn the whole election around and do a Bradbury ( just like Scomo ) . Hewson , unlike Keating , was not street smart and was unprepared as the whole situation demonstrated .
Why do you waste your time digging a bigger hole for yourself ?
To try and help you realise that academic qualifications don't necessarily mean you are smart here are some of the smartest people who don't have academic qualifications .
Bill Gates. It's hard to believe that this smart man is a Harvard dropout. ...
Ralph Lauren. After studying business for two years at Baruch College in Manhattan, Ralph Lauren dropped out of school and joined the Army. ...
Steve Madden. ...
Steve Jobs. ...
Sean Combs. ...
Mark Zuckerberg. ...
Rachael Ray. ...
Coco Chanel.
Oh give it a fucking rest you twat. Anyone with a PhD from Johns Hopkins is intelligent. Do you seriously believe average people get through the selection process?
Pointing to intelligent uni dropouts to throw shade on Hewson's qualifications and intelligence is pathetic.
I reckon you're one of those people who, when faced with something they don't understand or are intellectually intimidated by a person, instantly dismiss the person or concept.
One of those "What would those egg heads at uni no (sic)?" types. It's a pathetic sign of fragility, and quite common place in Australia.
So is Scumo above average ? Hmmmmm
Again you lie or have NFI .
Hewson got a Masters not a PHD .
These degree levels are often referred to in terms of cycles so that a Bachelor's is a first-cycle degree, a Masters is a second-cycle and finally, a PhD".
I have never said Hewson did not have qualifications or was not intelligent . As I said way above your type refuse to listen or read . I said he was not smart ( street smart ) . A huge difference which you , due to your lack of smartness , cannot grasp .
The Uni dropouts I mentioned all have street smarts ( unlike you ) and Hewson has not as I have repeatedly mentioned .
The way you keep digging you will soon be in a favourite place of yours .
China .
I'd put scumo down as having above average intelligence but possessing pure rat cunning, a massive ego, and extreme micro management obsessions.
The LNP don't choose the smartest man in the room to lead them, just the most ruthless.
VL I am enjoying making mince meat of your own statements . Here I go again .
You said ."Oh give it a fucking rest you twat. Anyone with a PhD from Johns Hopkins is intelligent. Do you seriously believe average people get through the selection process?
Pointing to intelligent uni dropouts to throw shade on Hewson's qualifications and intelligence is pathetic.
I reckon you're one of those people who, when faced with something they don't understand or are intellectually intimidated by a person, instantly dismiss the person or concept.
Tony Abbott is a Rhodes Scholar . Please tell me you think he is intelligent !!!!!!!!!! Otherwise everything you have said above is , as I have said , bullshit .
The selection process for that is much higher than getting into JHU . Completing it is at another level again . Hawke was also a Rhodes Scholar .
Let me make it crystal clear for you .
"Oh give it a fucking rest you twat. Anyone who is a Rhodes Scholar is intelligent. Do you seriously believe average people get through the selection process?
Pointing to intelligent uni dropouts to throw shade on Abbotts qualifications and intelligence is pathetic.
I reckon you're one of those people who, when faced with something they don't understand or are intellectually intimidated by a person, instantly dismiss the person or concept.
Of course Tony Abbott is intelligent, but he was 20 years out of date when he got into politics. Time moved on, Tony didn't and he got justifiably booted from his seat. He just failed to read the room and clung to policies that were no longer acceptable to his electorate. SSM and Climate Change being the obvious two.
Morrison on the other hand has no great intellect. Not even close. What's more, he's actively dumbed himself down in a cynical personal branding exercise to appeal to the footy loving beer swilling mob. The amount of time and effort that goes into the bogan makeover is a fucking joke. He got hair plugs while the pandemic spiralled out of control around him. What a fucking clown.
Australia probably needs a PM who can show a little more intellectual rigour than going on FM radio to deny Maccas rumours. We need someone who doesn't end speeches with "up up sharkies".
That "retail politician" shite is no good in a crisis and it shows big time with Scumo, the intellectual nobody who only cares about getting re-elected.
I wonder who will vote for then as Labor and the Greens have no one even close in their ministries that match your description .
Well done on your post to an advisory . No abuse and only 2 f words . Must be a first that I have seen .
.
VicLocal
You are right Abbott is intelligent . He has also been a lifesaver , fireman and surfer for decades . He takes most of his holidays by visiting aboriginal communities . He stands by his convictions and never breaks a scared confidence . He didn't blame the Queen for asking him to knight her husband ( we were the only Commonwealth country that hadn't ) before he died .
He has "True Grit " ! Yes , my type of man even though I didn't like everything he did .
When people like you like Hewson and Turnbull we Liberals KNOW they shouldn't be leading the party .
You will never vote for them no matter how popular they are in the polls even if you do like their policies .
Someone ( I think it was a Labor politician )said that if you like Rudd , don't meet him as you will change your mind . And if you don't like Tony , don't meet him as you will change your mind .
Have a good day .
Abbott the suppository of all wisdom
“... we Liberals ...”
Suggest you inform yourself on what liberalism actually means and after that resurch the difference b/w liberalism and reactionary politics. Unsurprisingly it seems you’re confusing one with the other.
"And if you don't like Tony , don't meet him as you will change your mind .
Have a good day ."
I have met him on a few occasions when he was opposition leader, and he always came across as a cynical opportunists. He spent years touring factories whipping up baseless fears of the carbon tax. Same shit speech day in day out. 4 cliches. No plans. And it showed when he became PM.
He treated people like idiots and the voters of Waringah got fed up with it.
Shut up Smiley . Everyone including yourself knew what I meant .
If I had to go into battle who do you think I would choose ? Someone with True grit or a Half Twit like you ?
When you have no argument you do semantics . Poor choice !
VicLocal
He represented the seat for 25 YEARS .
When the constituents saw Zali's true lightweight form they immediately regretted it . No
one in Australia has heard a peep out of her since .
His speech when he conceded was all class . See below . No bitterness to anyone .
Very predicable that you didn't like him when you met him ( I haven't had the privilege ) . True to form and exactly what I would expect .
"One of the Liberals’ leading conservatives and Australia’s 28th prime minister, Tony Abbott, has lost his blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Warringah after moderate Liberal voters abandoned him in protest at the role he played in opposing climate change action.
Abbott lost to the independent candidate and Olympian Zali Steggall, with the count showing she was likely to win almost 60% of the vote on a two-party-preferred basis.
But Abbott’s loss appeared to be the only black spot on a night when it appeared the Coalition would hold on to government.
“I want to say to you: there is good news and bad news. There is every chance that the Liberal-National Coalition has won the election,” Abbott said in his concession speech, to chants of “Tony, Tony!”
“This – this is a really extraordinary result. It is a stupendous result. It is a great result for Scott Morrison and the rest of the wider Liberal team, and Scott Morrison will now, quite rightly, enter the Liberal pantheon forever,” he said.
“So its disappointing for us in Warringah. I can’t say it doesn’t hurt to lose. But I would rather be a loser than a quitter,” he said to wild applause.
I lived in TA’s electorate for a few years. I’ve shared a couple of my experiences with in that context on these forums before so I won’t recount them. I’ve also read some reflections from relatively senior public officials from his time as PM. Those reflections weren’t a positive endorsement of his intellect or judgement. Not saying he’s not intelligent. There’s just a contextual element to it, and an empathetic one.
If you think the difference between liberalism and reactionary politics is mere semantics you’re stupider than I thought and might also go to how you mistakeningly believe Abbott represented anything other than self interest and that of his backers. His electorate gave him the arse in case you forgot.
Smiley - a big sentence " If you think the difference between liberalism and reactionary politics is mere semantics you’re stupider than I thought and might also go to how you mistakeningly believe Abbott represented anything other than self interest and that of his backers ."
My criticism of your post re semantics was not related to liberalism and reactionary politics and you ( if you have any brains ) know it .
My words "we Liberals KNOW they shouldn't be leading the party " were a reference to the political party .
Like you Tony has ruffled a few feathers . Unlike you he has done it on important points . Not by trying to be a smart arse .
Ssssh, thicker than 2 short planks, the once liberal party are no more, by their words and deeds the party is reactionary. Riddle me this: why is it in a party full of neoliberals, free marketers, supporters of small govt and low taxes they fight tooth and nail to cling to the teet of taxpayer funded jobs in and outside parliament? Your hero Tones 25 years suckling in a taxpayers funded teet! Another case of do as I say not what I do?
You are right Smilo .
A party full of many different people , a broad church . Unlike the Labor party where ALL the MP's worked in Unions .
So do all the Labor MP's also suck the proverbial teat ? Is his replacement doing it ?
You are in really poor form today !
Riddle me this : Why did they win the election and if they are in power how can they be no more ?
Speaking of intelligence. If anyone has anything intelligent to say about house prices, then say it, otherwise maybe move your political bitch fighting to some other thread.
Will try and do Gary . Must be not the first time a thread has been dragged off onto another tangent .
In Melb home prices have been supported by net migration inflows . I would guess that influence would be changing due to Covid . Other areas , mostly regional , will continue benefit as we have already seen .
Not enough to change the Melbourne demand and supply dynamics yet .
Not an economist, but this seems to have some similarities to Australia’s current position with respect to real estate. Does this slowdown in Chinese property have much bearing on Aussie commodities, which have largely been propping up the economy? Grateful if someone can link the dots for me:
“The fate of Evergrande has massive implications for China’s already shaky property market and the economy-at-large, with property sales accounting for close to 10 per cent of China’s GDP and property constituting the vast bulk of households’ wealth. If suppliers are included, the overall contribution of the real estate sector to the Chinese economy is probably closer to 30 per cent.“
From SMH:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/china-s-latest-chall...
Etarip - Australia does not have an Evergrande ! Most of the world is experiencing increases in property prices ( as China was ) due mainly to record low interest rates .
Evergrande was always an accident waiting to happen . I don't think there will be a flow on effect to other countries as per the Lehman collapse at the start of the GFC . I hope not . How the Chinese let this happen is an interesting question ?
I know we don’t have an evergrande, my question was more about RE as the %of GDP and household wealth. I understand that Australia has higher household debt that global average.
You are right etarip re debt and I would guess that Oz has way more net wealth is RE than China .
Many Australians have nearly all their wealth in their home . It could be a very dangerous financial plan in the long term .
Watching this Evergrande debacle with great interest. This could well be the catalyst for a dump in the stock market. Already saw nervousness across all global markets yesterday.
And it could well cool down our Aussie housing bubble too.
define cool down?
i can't see it having any significant impact on Australian property prices.
i have nothing to back me up on that. just a hunch.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
Pretty big house of cards if it comes down. Some Chinese investment in Australia could be withdrawn to cover debts. Meaning a decent chunk of the Australian property market goes up for sale.
Might fizzle away into nothing too but watch this space.
Stock markets already dropping. Could dump hard if more bad news comes out of China. And when people lose a lot of money on stocks they have to sell off their other assets to prop up their bank accounts. Those other assets include property.
Word is Evergrande crash could also cause hyperinflation world wide due to currency devaluation. This in turn requires central banks to raise interest rates as a measure to curb the hyperinflation. And we all know what will happen to the housing bubble when interest rates rise!!
China will do 1 of 2 things. Print us$300 billion and cover the debt or let it go bust and acquire the debt cheap and bring it more into the direct control of centralised govt. Just depends on the way they want to go. us$300 billion is nothing for China to print.
speaking of china - did anyone happen to see this last night? https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/brainless-austral...
It was pretty full on.
It was wasn’t it Brutus? I thought Stan did a good job, the”expert” sounded like he was direct from CCP headquarters without the diplomatic filters.
Dutton actually doing Australia proud in that instance. Wonders never cease.
Roadkill - China can't print US$ . Will not bail out Evergrande as they have already stated . May bail out some of the companies the are owed the billions though as they don't want it to turn into a Lehmans event .
It will cause huge ramifications to their property market which is already overbuilt . Will slow construction which will lower the need for domestic steel ( China exports a lot ) .
Taking a wider lens, China data has slowed following policy tightening, exacerbated by lockdowns and floods. In the medium-term China faces major challenges, including: i) negative demographics; ii) very high private non-financial debt levels (222% GDP); iii) substantial over-investment at 43% GDP; iv) rapidly maturing urbanisation; v) Western pushback; and vi) CCP reversal of the liberalising trend.
But China has the strengths to mitigate downside shocks. It is not a typical EM crisis candidate, given persistent trade surpluses, US$3.2tr FX Reserves, low inflation, exchange controls and an RMB that is not overvalued. It controls large parts of the financial system and can use fiscal stimulus at least as readily as the Advanced economies have used it during COVID.
Inflation is already rising around the world . Central banks believe it is transitory . I don't . They will imo ignore it for quite a while . Even when it is a problem they will change their story and say it is NOW a good thing . Wages will be going up , will wipe some of their debt away .
They will continue to ignore it as they will not have the balls to increase interest rates too quickly imo .
As long as Australia doesn't go into recession and unemployment rises our housing market should be resilient while interest rates stay relatively low . I hope so !
Hutchy 19 wrote:Roadkill - China can't print US$ . Will not bail out Evergrande as they have already stated . May bail out some of the companies the are owed the billions though as they don't want it to turn into a Lehmans event .
It will cause huge ramifications to their property market which is already overbuilt . Will slow construction which will lower the need for domestic steel ( China exports a lot ) .
Taking a wider lens, China data has slowed following policy tightening, exacerbated by lockdowns and floods. In the medium-term China faces major challenges, including: i) negative demographics; ii) very high private non-financial debt levels (222% GDP); iii) substantial over-investment at 43% GDP; iv) rapidly maturing urbanisation; v) Western pushback; and vi) CCP reversal of the liberalising trend.
But China has the strengths to mitigate downside shocks. It is not a typical EM crisis candidate, given persistent trade surpluses, US$3.2tr FX Reserves, low inflation, exchange controls and an RMB that is not overvalued. It controls large parts of the financial system and can use fiscal stimulus at least as readily as the Advanced economies have used it during COVID.
Inflation is already rising around the world . Central banks believe it is transitory . I don't . They will imo ignore it for quite a while . Even when it is a problem they will change their story and say it is NOW a good thing . Wages will be going up , will wipe some of their debt away .
They will continue to ignore it as they will not have the balls to increase interest rates too quickly imo .
As long as Australia doesn't go into recession and unemployment rises our housing market should be resilient while interest rates stay relatively low . I hope so !
Yo, captain obvious…It’s the value of us$300 billion, aus$400 no one gives a fuck about Yuan.
What China says and what it does is not the same.
Roadkill - you need to be clearer for me when writing comments . You wrote " Print us$300 billion and cover the
debt ". You are often wrong so I just assumed you need correcting again . Sorry .
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers