The United States(!) of A
a guy I know called Alfred could bring you back a blue 'freak' daily from Indo this winter @blackers, bagus sekali - murah!
(not too hilly where you are.?)
@ Salty Dog, thanks for the kind words of wisdom. Wish I had done the same. Our financial advisor always just says hold tight and ride it out, but this could ugly. All the best mate.
old-dog wrote:@ Salty Dog, thanks for the kind words of wisdom. Wish I had done the same. Our financial advisor always just says hold tight and ride it out, but this could ugly. All the best mate.
Changing the subject
Are you guys related?
At least you’re not being crucified in a
Monty Python movie!
old-dog wrote:@ Salty Dog, thanks for the kind words of wisdom. Wish I had done the same. Our financial advisor always just says hold tight and ride it out, but this could ugly. All the best mate.
Salty Dog. My brother who is smarter than myself, once engaged with a financial advisor, didn’t go so well.
The best financial advice he stated was to never get a financial advisor. Himself and myself know plenty who have discovered that many financial advisors have hidden agendas like referring you to programs or schemes that belong to mates or friends and always something coming back their way behind closed doors.
Keep it under your mattress I reckon. AW
@Jeffy
"The new head of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), Peter Marocco, has reportedly expressed bewilderment over some of the agency's spending that he is considering sending criminal referrals to the Justice Department for potential misuse of taxpayer dollars."
Confusion wrote:old-dog wrote:@ Salty Dog, thanks for the kind words of wisdom. Wish I had done the same. Our financial advisor always just says hold tight and ride it out, but this could ugly. All the best mate.
Changing the subject
Are you guys related?
At least you’re not being crucified in a
Monty Python movie!
Related? Not that I’m aware of.
But it is a small world!
A Salty Dog wrote:mick66 wrote:A Salty Dog wrote:mick66 wrote:A Salty Dog wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:Hmm. i dont know you read so many different views even from so called experts on this topic.
It just seems crazy that we have these free trade agreement's with places like China import all this cheap stuff and have zero chance of manufacturing anything in Australia even just sending mineral's to China instead of processing here and adding value.
Selected tariffs to me make's sense to wind things back or try to diversify and not be so reliant on China, for USA with such a big population it make's even more sense.
Covid i thought was a wake up call, to try to bring some manufacturing back to the West.
I think there is a bit of a if Trump says black, we say white thing with this topic though.
Trumps not silly he is doing something even if it's just a way to negotiate different things through tarrifs
I think it was you who said the other week he is smarter than people think, the way he has managed Israel and Ukraine to just get thing's moving in different direction's.
Forget the lobsters Indo, look at car manufacturing.
Trump has a plan to apply 25% tariffs to automotive components. What he didn’t realise was these components can cross the Canadian and Mexican borders up to seven times before being assembled into the finished vehicle.
This article from the Cato Institute (of all people!) explains the application of tariffs in detail.
https://www.cato.org/blog/seven-charts-show-how-us-tariffs-would-harm-am...
Now Trump has given the local manufacturers a few weeks to relocate all their component suppliers inside US borders. Should be easy.
Ultimately this will add thousands to the cost of a US manufactured vehicle and every car buyer will feel it.
Trump and his “advisors” clearly have no idea how international trade works and the finer points of “Comparative Advantage”. He believes a country of 20 million should have “balanced” trade with a country of 300 million. He is a complete simpleton masquerading as a bully.
One more thing, while it is my opinion stock markets are populated with con men, shonks and shysters, the markets do act as a barometer for a countries economy. They thrive on prosperous profitable industry but above all on certainty.
Now look at what has happened to markets since Trump started to “even things up” with tariffs. Tariffs applied one day are postponed the next, and no one knows what is going on.
The markets don’t like all this indecision, not to mention the inflationary implications of tariffs. Check how your Super balance has dropped in the last six weeks, to see how it’s affected you: it’s cost me a fair slab of money.
This whole Trump thing will in my opinion, end in disaster.
More and more Americans are now realising they have elected an idiot.
In regards to your last sentence, I had interesting conversations today with 2 acquaintances who voted for Trump. The one says he's barely slept in weeks and feels incredibly guilty for voting for him. The other thinks he's intentionally trying to crater the economy to precipatate riots that will give him an excuse to declare martial law.
Not sure if this will sound believable, but I've spoken to a half dozen people in the last week who are trying to find a country they can emigrate to. None of whom had any interest in leaving the country previously.
Friends of mine who are from Latin America (here legally) say they have adjusted shopping habits. No more Walmart, as rumors are that immigration authorities are posting up there. They work, then go home. One family member goes shopping once a week, to minimize the chance of being detained.Today Senator (and combat veteran) Mark Kelly gave his post-visit assessment of the situation in Ukraine. Musk immediately labeled him a "Traitor."
His first presidency seemed like a tiresome reality show. I imagine this is how it felt in 1922 Italy.
Hi mick66,
I formed that opinion from numerous you tube videos posted by disillusioned individuals: farmers who had lost their income due to USAID cuts and others whose positions had been terminated or who had lost social service benefits. Clearly the feelings are widespread.
I cannot imagine how your friends feel, having to minimise your public exposure for fear of being detained simply because of your appearance. That is a terrible situation to be in.
I read Kelly's assessment of the Ukraine situation. Given his service history I accept it as accurate and honest. Yet to be called a "traitor" by an unelected bureaucrat who has milked the American taxpayer for billions, is an egregious insult to a man who has devoted much of his life to the service of his country.
As for people emigrating from the US, I used to work at a public waste facility, and came into contact with thousands of people. What astounded me was the number of expat Americans who had moved here to live, ultimately took up citizenship and now called Australia home. And that was 15 years ago, when things appeared to be much better!
We are all in uncharted waters with this current plague of madness.
I wish you all well.
Regards.
Thanks for the well wishes!
re: Americans who emigrated to Australia, yes I've known a few. We had started the process many years back, but seemed like we were always just shy on the points scale. On the brightside, 2 of my daughters are putting the wheels in motion. Should be visiting again in July/August for a surf trip/more recon, and looking forward to that.Are your daughters coming here on an extended working holiday or are they looking at a permanent move? Either way they will love it.
Our daughter worked in the US for about three years in the mid 2000's : Peterborough in New Hampshire, Vermont, Minnesota (in winter!!!)and a stint at a lodge in the Denali National Park and had an absolutely fantastic time.
The Aussie Dollar is cheap at present, only US63 cents, so your cash will go a long way. Hopefully you can meet up with some of us Swellnutters !!
Cheers!!
Re: The USD's strength, that may not last for long. As you may know, Trump is a big fan of a weak dollar as he feels it will boost exports while making imports more expensive and thus causing a shift to buying domestically) but of course there are many, many downsides to a weak currency. Just read an article yesterday in which one of his advisers stated they would like to see it weaken by 20% to 25%. oof.
Glad your daughter enjoyed her time here. Vermont, in particular, is really beautiful.
As for my daughters, yes they are looking to move permanently. Both will have vocations on the Skills in Demand (482) list, though I'm quite worried Dutton would roll that visa back, should he win the election. I know he's stated he wants a reduced quota on annual immigration, even if to my knowledge there hasn't been anything said specifically about that particular visa program.
AlfredWallace wrote:old-dog wrote:@ Salty Dog, thanks for the kind words of wisdom. Wish I had done the same. Our financial advisor always just says hold tight and ride it out, but this could ugly. All the best mate.
Salty Dog. My brother who is smarter than myself, once engaged with a financial advisor, didn’t go so well.
The best financial advice he stated was to never get a financial advisor. Himself and myself know plenty who have discovered that many financial advisors have hidden agendas like referring you to programs or schemes that belong to mates or friends and always something coming back their way behind closed doors.
Keep it under your mattress I reckon. AW
Hi AW!
I did try the Stock Market for a while, with mixed results.
They don’t call it a casino for nothing. Too many con men shonks and shysters and the bots and algos are used to deceive. Then there are the short sellers; ready to spread bullshit about their next target.
Took some time to learn the basics about what moves the stock market and why. Not an expert by any means and still learning. So I switch my super investments around based on my conservative judgement, try to avoid negative returns and don’t get greedy! If things do go pear shaped then there is only me to blame.
Cheers!
indo-dreaming wrote:@Jeffy
"The new head of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), Peter Marocco, has reportedly expressed bewilderment over some of the agency's spending that he is considering sending criminal referrals to the Justice Department for potential misuse of taxpayer dollars."
The new head for USAid
Yeah right, who appointed the new head, and we can definitely believe anything that administration says ,
That’s why our Superannuation is dropping because die hards like you keep believing everything that’s shoveled into you by the ultimate hypocritical liars,
How do you explain Trump spending most of his time playing golf at Mar a Lago
And it costs $10 million per weekend for that not to mention Musks latest billion dollar contract.
Explain hypocritical ostrich syndrome.
mick66 wrote:A Salty Dog wrote:mick66 wrote:A Salty Dog wrote:mick66 wrote:A Salty Dog wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:Hmm. i dont know you read so many different views even from so called experts on this topic.
It just seems crazy that we have these free trade agreement's with places like China import all this cheap stuff and have zero chance of manufacturing anything in Australia even just sending mineral's to China instead of processing here and adding value.
Selected tariffs to me make's sense to wind things back or try to diversify and not be so reliant on China, for USA with such a big population it make's even more sense.
Covid i thought was a wake up call, to try to bring some manufacturing back to the West.
I think there is a bit of a if Trump says black, we say white thing with this topic though.
Trumps not silly he is doing something even if it's just a way to negotiate different things through tarrifs
I think it was you who said the other week he is smarter than people think, the way he has managed Israel and Ukraine to just get thing's moving in different direction's.
Forget the lobsters Indo, look at car manufacturing.
Trump has a plan to apply 25% tariffs to automotive components. What he didn’t realise was these components can cross the Canadian and Mexican borders up to seven times before being assembled into the finished vehicle.
This article from the Cato Institute (of all people!) explains the application of tariffs in detail.
https://www.cato.org/blog/seven-charts-show-how-us-tariffs-would-harm-am...
Now Trump has given the local manufacturers a few weeks to relocate all their component suppliers inside US borders. Should be easy.
Ultimately this will add thousands to the cost of a US manufactured vehicle and every car buyer will feel it.
Trump and his “advisors” clearly have no idea how international trade works and the finer points of “Comparative Advantage”. He believes a country of 20 million should have “balanced” trade with a country of 300 million. He is a complete simpleton masquerading as a bully.
One more thing, while it is my opinion stock markets are populated with con men, shonks and shysters, the markets do act as a barometer for a countries economy. They thrive on prosperous profitable industry but above all on certainty.
Now look at what has happened to markets since Trump started to “even things up” with tariffs. Tariffs applied one day are postponed the next, and no one knows what is going on.
The markets don’t like all this indecision, not to mention the inflationary implications of tariffs. Check how your Super balance has dropped in the last six weeks, to see how it’s affected you: it’s cost me a fair slab of money.
This whole Trump thing will in my opinion, end in disaster.
More and more Americans are now realising they have elected an idiot.
In regards to your last sentence, I had interesting conversations today with 2 acquaintances who voted for Trump. The one says he's barely slept in weeks and feels incredibly guilty for voting for him. The other thinks he's intentionally trying to crater the economy to precipatate riots that will give him an excuse to declare martial law.
Not sure if this will sound believable, but I've spoken to a half dozen people in the last week who are trying to find a country they can emigrate to. None of whom had any interest in leaving the country previously.
Friends of mine who are from Latin America (here legally) say they have adjusted shopping habits. No more Walmart, as rumors are that immigration authorities are posting up there. They work, then go home. One family member goes shopping once a week, to minimize the chance of being detained.Today Senator (and combat veteran) Mark Kelly gave his post-visit assessment of the situation in Ukraine. Musk immediately labeled him a "Traitor."
His first presidency seemed like a tiresome reality show. I imagine this is how it felt in 1922 Italy.
Hi mick66,
I formed that opinion from numerous you tube videos posted by disillusioned individuals: farmers who had lost their income due to USAID cuts and others whose positions had been terminated or who had lost social service benefits. Clearly the feelings are widespread.
I cannot imagine how your friends feel, having to minimise your public exposure for fear of being detained simply because of your appearance. That is a terrible situation to be in.
I read Kelly's assessment of the Ukraine situation. Given his service history I accept it as accurate and honest. Yet to be called a "traitor" by an unelected bureaucrat who has milked the American taxpayer for billions, is an egregious insult to a man who has devoted much of his life to the service of his country.
As for people emigrating from the US, I used to work at a public waste facility, and came into contact with thousands of people. What astounded me was the number of expat Americans who had moved here to live, ultimately took up citizenship and now called Australia home. And that was 15 years ago, when things appeared to be much better!
We are all in uncharted waters with this current plague of madness.
I wish you all well.
Regards.
Thanks for the well wishes!
re: Americans who emigrated to Australia, yes I've known a few. We had started the process many years back, but seemed like we were always just shy on the points scale. On the brightside, 2 of my daughters are putting the wheels in motion. Should be visiting again in July/August for a surf trip/more recon, and looking forward to that.Are your daughters coming here on an extended working holiday or are they looking at a permanent move? Either way they will love it.
Our daughter worked in the US for about three years in the mid 2000's : Peterborough in New Hampshire, Vermont, Minnesota (in winter!!!)and a stint at a lodge in the Denali National Park and had an absolutely fantastic time.
The Aussie Dollar is cheap at present, only US63 cents, so your cash will go a long way. Hopefully you can meet up with some of us Swellnutters !!
Cheers!!
Re: The USD's strength, that may not last for long. As you may know, Trump is a big fan of a weak dollar as he feels it will boost exports while making imports more expensive and thus causing a shift to buying domestically) but of course there are many, many downsides to a weak currency. Just read an article yesterday in which one of his advisers stated they would like to see it weaken by 20% to 25%. oof.
Glad your daughter enjoyed her time here. Vermont, in particular, is really beautiful.
As for my daughters, yes they are looking to move permanently. Both will have vocations on the Skills in Demand (482) list, though I'm quite worried Dutton would roll that visa back, should he win the election. I know he's stated he wants a reduced quota on annual immigration, even if to my knowledge there hasn't been anything said specifically about that particular visa program.
That’s a big call to drop the USD by 25%. Some of the major currency players might have something to say about that!
We’ve been to New York twice and stayed at one of the camps where she was working. Travelled around the New England region and it is spectacular scenery. Boston reminded me very much of Melbourne. We also did a side trip to Nova Scotia and thoroughly enjoyed it. I have to commend the patience of your motorists there: I found it difficult to say the least, adjusting to driving on the right hand side of the road!
The forthcoming election will be held sometime in May. I doubt that Dutton will go into that level of detail for visas in policy releases in the election campaign. He has in the past made announcements regarding immigration changes which never eventuated. While the election will be close the most likely result will be an ALP minority Government so things should remain as they are.
Cheers!
US aid document burn...
nothing suss here
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/11/usaid-official-tells-remaining-...
sypkan wrote:US aid document burn...
nothing suss here
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/11/usaid-official-tells-remaining-...
So there’s no record of who became ill or died as a result of the DOGE s inhumanity and callous disregard for human rights.
Confused Jeff, how much do you give in overseas aid ?….the American people have done it for years…….and every year the govt nearly shuts down because it has run out of money to pay its own people , pensions ,services, and to function.
So it has to borrow again and again…
…...the credit card is full….really full…36 trillion full.
Give them a break…..they have done more than enough …..leave them to help themselves get back on track.
Confusion wrote:old-dog wrote:@ Salty Dog, thanks for the kind words of wisdom. Wish I had done the same. Our financial advisor always just says hold tight and ride it out, but this could ugly. All the best mate.
Changing the subject
Are you guys related?
At least you’re not being crucified in a
Monty Python movie!
Confusious...Jeffy...Heeby...JulianG are you related?
Confusion wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:@Jeffy
"The new head of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), Peter Marocco, has reportedly expressed bewilderment over some of the agency's spending that he is considering sending criminal referrals to the Justice Department for potential misuse of taxpayer dollars."
The new head for USAid
How do you explain Trump spending most of his time playing golf at Mar a Lago
And it costs $10 million per weekend for that not to mention Musks latest billion dollar contract.
Explain hypocritical ostrich syndrome.
Um dude you do know that Trump own's that Golf Course???
@ Follo
All negative's aside of the short term effect of tarrifs (and remembering no pain no gain with most thing's in life)
And just trying to figure out Trumps real long term aim with tarrifs.
Do you think it's possible that Trump is putting blanket tarrifs over countries in an aim to raise money quickly. (hoping many countries dont want to get in a trade war like Australia)
Would it be possible to then really reduce the USA debt along with other cost cutting measures through DOGE (more a long term reduction slowing down increase in debt)
Then over time he negotiates with countries on each area of trade and even removes certain tarrifs.
This seems to be his way he operates on other things in negotiation's.
With the tariffs that remain USA gov has extra income so is then able to reduce or even remove taxes on USA business in the USA encouraging business back to the USA
BTW. Question is aimed at you, cause you actually seem to have knowledge about this area and a more balanced view in general and interested in discussion rather than just bitching or getting into conflict
indo-dreaming wrote:@ Follo
All negative's aside of the short term effect of tarrifs (and remembering no pain no gain with most thing's in life)
And just trying to figure out Trumps real long term aim with tarrifs.
Do you think it's possible that Trump is putting blanket tarrifs over countries in an aim to raise money quickly. (hoping many countries dont want to get in a trade war like Australia)
Would it be possible to then really reduce the USA debt along with other cost cutting measures through DOGE (more a long term reduction slowing down increase in debt)
Then over time he negotiates with countries on each area of trade and even removes certain tarrifs.
This seems to be his way he operates on other things in negotiation's.
With the tariffs that remain USA gov has extra income so is then able to reduce or even remove taxes on USA business in the USA encouraging business back to the USA
BTW. Question is aimed at you, cause you actually seem to have knowledge about this area and a more balanced view in general and interested in discussion rather than just bitching or getting into conflict
Last time the USA embraced tariffs like this (correct if I am wrong) was in 1930's which exacerbated the Great Depression and led to WW2.
It will not work except transfer more money from the working class.
All these people who have lost jobs will further create more economic damage. Google Multiplier effect and the reverse the impacts as this is what will happen in the US economy.
This will decrease tax receipts for the govt, as people who are unemployed don't pay tax, and don't buy stuff which will further impact business and increase unemployment further.
If gets too bad, watch for some pretty heavy social unrest.
Chuck in inflation which will probably head up quite a few percentage points.
Stock market volatility, some are already saying it could be heading for GFC 02.
Investors do not like uncertainty and Trump is giving that in spades.
Say goodbye to your super and any investments in stock you may have in worst case scenario.
It's a shit show and any economist who has any idea is saying the same.
But hey carry on Trump, he isn't woke!
ID, a lot of the tariffs appear to be being applied as a negotiating/extortion tactic rather than a long term economic plan.
Curious what he wants from Australia… change in government perhaps?
“And then what.”
indo-dreaming wrote:@ Follo
All negative's aside of the short term effect of tarrifs (and remembering no pain no gain with most thing's in life)
And just trying to figure out Trumps real long term aim with tarrifs.
Do you think it's possible that Trump is putting blanket tarrifs over countries in an aim to raise money quickly. (hoping many countries dont want to get in a trade war like Australia)
Would it be possible to then really reduce the USA debt along with other cost cutting measures through DOGE (more a long term reduction slowing down increase in debt)
Then over time he negotiates with countries on each area of trade and even removes certain tarrifs.
This seems to be his way he operates on other things in negotiation's.
With the tariffs that remain USA gov has extra income so is then able to reduce or even remove taxes on USA business in the USA encouraging business back to the USA
BTW. Question is aimed at you, cause you actually seem to have knowledge about this area and a more balanced view in general and interested in discussion rather than just bitching or getting into conflict
Hi Indo, this is a complex, multifaceted issue. First of all, yes I would argue that this is a revenue raising move. The US doesn't have VAT like Europe (or GST like in Aus). Sales tax is collected by individual states. There are not many revenue raising levers that feds can do. Well, you can raise income and corporate taxes but Trump won't do that so tariffs are an obvious choice.
For the long term plan, you cannot look at tariffs in isolation. The economics as a whole is a combination of hundreds of individual supply and demand drivers. Here's a bit of a provoking theory; tariffs are paid by the tariffed country through the drop of their standard of living. In other words, the exchange rate move and the tariff can potentially completely offset each other. For example, if a company in Canada charges me $1 CAD for a product and I buy a 100 of them then I need to pay $100 CAD. For simplicity sake, let's assume $1USD = $1CAD. So it's $100USD. If there's a 20% tariff in place it costs me $120 CAD. But what if the exchange rate changed to $1USD = $1.20CAD. Then it still costs me $100 USD, meaning that tariff won't be inlfationary.
Now, things are a lot more complex in real world. But you get the picture. Currency plays will be huge under Trump's administration. They are actually trying to restructure the global trading system. There is this view out there that this is all just Trump being erratic and he wakes up in the morning and makes shit up. I'm of an opinion that this view is completely wrong. I believe there is an 'army' of hundreds of people who are actively working on restructuring of global trade. The USD is a global reserve currency which keeps it overvalued with no end in sight. Not everyone is happy about this.
I suggest you look up Triffin Dilemma for more context -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma
If you (or anyone else) are truly interested I suggest you read this paper by Stephen Miran. He wrote it back in Nov and I wish I read it back then as I would have much better understanding of what's coming. He worked for Hudson Bay Capital back then but he actually just got confirmed as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers at Executive Office of the President. So, he will be a big voice in Trump's economic policy and you will understand where this is going if you read this paper. But in short, we are talking about some big changes and tariffs are only a smaller part of that.
Just a few paragraphs to set the scene:
'From a trade perspective, the dollar is persistently overvalued, in large part because dollar assets function as the world’s reserve currency. This overvaluation has weighed heavily on the American manufacturing sector while benefiting financialized sectors of the economy in manners that benefit wealthy Americans.'
'USTs (US Tresuries) become exported products which fuel the global trade system. In exporting USTs, America receives foreign currency, which is then spent, usually on imported goods. America runs large current account deficits not because it imports too much, but it imports too much because it must export USTs to provide reserve assets and facilitate global growth. This view has been discussed by prominent policymakers from both the United States (e.g. Feldstein and Volcker, 2013) as well as China (e.g. Zhou, 2009).'
'As the United States shrinks relative to global GDP, the current account or fiscal deficit it must run to fund global trade and savings pools grows larger as a share of the domestic economy. Therefore, as the rest of the world grows, the consequences for our own export sectors—an overvalued dollar incentivizing imports—become more difficult to bear, and the pain inflicted on that portion of the economy increases.'
'According to the World Trade Organization, the United States effective tariff on imports is the lowest any nation in the world imposes at about 3%, while the European Union imposes about 5% and China 10%. These numbers are averages across all imports and not reflective of bilateral tariff rates; bilateral discrepancies can be much larger, for instance the U.S. imposes only 2.5% tariffs on auto imports from the E.U., while Europe
imposes a 10% duty on American auto imports.'
Read the paper and you will learn a lot:
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_...
For the other side, I'm sharing a critique of this paper as well. It's quite short and not as comprehensive but I thought I'll share a different view for context.
https://www.aei.org/economics/council-of-economic-advisors-chair-nominee...
https://www.aei.org/economics/cea-chair-nominee-stephen-mirans-critique-...
What is the saying?
Those that ignore the lessons of history are bound to repeat them …. or words to that effect
A Salty Dog wrote:mick66 wrote:A Salty Dog wrote:mick66 wrote:A Salty Dog wrote:mick66 wrote:A Salty Dog wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:Hmm. i dont know you read so many different views even from so called experts on this topic.
It just seems crazy that we have these free trade agreement's with places like China import all this cheap stuff and have zero chance of manufacturing anything in Australia even just sending mineral's to China instead of processing here and adding value.
Selected tariffs to me make's sense to wind things back or try to diversify and not be so reliant on China, for USA with such a big population it make's even more sense.
Covid i thought was a wake up call, to try to bring some manufacturing back to the West.
I think there is a bit of a if Trump says black, we say white thing with this topic though.
Trumps not silly he is doing something even if it's just a way to negotiate different things through tarrifs
I think it was you who said the other week he is smarter than people think, the way he has managed Israel and Ukraine to just get thing's moving in different direction's.
Forget the lobsters Indo, look at car manufacturing.
Trump has a plan to apply 25% tariffs to automotive components. What he didn’t realise was these components can cross the Canadian and Mexican borders up to seven times before being assembled into the finished vehicle.
This article from the Cato Institute (of all people!) explains the application of tariffs in detail.
https://www.cato.org/blog/seven-charts-show-how-us-tariffs-would-harm-am...
Now Trump has given the local manufacturers a few weeks to relocate all their component suppliers inside US borders. Should be easy.
Ultimately this will add thousands to the cost of a US manufactured vehicle and every car buyer will feel it.
Trump and his “advisors” clearly have no idea how international trade works and the finer points of “Comparative Advantage”. He believes a country of 20 million should have “balanced” trade with a country of 300 million. He is a complete simpleton masquerading as a bully.
One more thing, while it is my opinion stock markets are populated with con men, shonks and shysters, the markets do act as a barometer for a countries economy. They thrive on prosperous profitable industry but above all on certainty.
Now look at what has happened to markets since Trump started to “even things up” with tariffs. Tariffs applied one day are postponed the next, and no one knows what is going on.
The markets don’t like all this indecision, not to mention the inflationary implications of tariffs. Check how your Super balance has dropped in the last six weeks, to see how it’s affected you: it’s cost me a fair slab of money.
This whole Trump thing will in my opinion, end in disaster.
More and more Americans are now realising they have elected an idiot.
In regards to your last sentence, I had interesting conversations today with 2 acquaintances who voted for Trump. The one says he's barely slept in weeks and feels incredibly guilty for voting for him. The other thinks he's intentionally trying to crater the economy to precipatate riots that will give him an excuse to declare martial law.
Not sure if this will sound believable, but I've spoken to a half dozen people in the last week who are trying to find a country they can emigrate to. None of whom had any interest in leaving the country previously.
Friends of mine who are from Latin America (here legally) say they have adjusted shopping habits. No more Walmart, as rumors are that immigration authorities are posting up there. They work, then go home. One family member goes shopping once a week, to minimize the chance of being detained.Today Senator (and combat veteran) Mark Kelly gave his post-visit assessment of the situation in Ukraine. Musk immediately labeled him a "Traitor."
His first presidency seemed like a tiresome reality show. I imagine this is how it felt in 1922 Italy.
Hi mick66,
I formed that opinion from numerous you tube videos posted by disillusioned individuals: farmers who had lost their income due to USAID cuts and others whose positions had been terminated or who had lost social service benefits. Clearly the feelings are widespread.
I cannot imagine how your friends feel, having to minimise your public exposure for fear of being detained simply because of your appearance. That is a terrible situation to be in.
I read Kelly's assessment of the Ukraine situation. Given his service history I accept it as accurate and honest. Yet to be called a "traitor" by an unelected bureaucrat who has milked the American taxpayer for billions, is an egregious insult to a man who has devoted much of his life to the service of his country.
As for people emigrating from the US, I used to work at a public waste facility, and came into contact with thousands of people. What astounded me was the number of expat Americans who had moved here to live, ultimately took up citizenship and now called Australia home. And that was 15 years ago, when things appeared to be much better!
We are all in uncharted waters with this current plague of madness.
I wish you all well.
Regards.
Thanks for the well wishes!
re: Americans who emigrated to Australia, yes I've known a few. We had started the process many years back, but seemed like we were always just shy on the points scale. On the brightside, 2 of my daughters are putting the wheels in motion. Should be visiting again in July/August for a surf trip/more recon, and looking forward to that.Are your daughters coming here on an extended working holiday or are they looking at a permanent move? Either way they will love it.
Our daughter worked in the US for about three years in the mid 2000's : Peterborough in New Hampshire, Vermont, Minnesota (in winter!!!)and a stint at a lodge in the Denali National Park and had an absolutely fantastic time.
The Aussie Dollar is cheap at present, only US63 cents, so your cash will go a long way. Hopefully you can meet up with some of us Swellnutters !!
Cheers!!
Re: The USD's strength, that may not last for long. As you may know, Trump is a big fan of a weak dollar as he feels it will boost exports while making imports more expensive and thus causing a shift to buying domestically) but of course there are many, many downsides to a weak currency. Just read an article yesterday in which one of his advisers stated they would like to see it weaken by 20% to 25%. oof.
Glad your daughter enjoyed her time here. Vermont, in particular, is really beautiful.
As for my daughters, yes they are looking to move permanently. Both will have vocations on the Skills in Demand (482) list, though I'm quite worried Dutton would roll that visa back, should he win the election. I know he's stated he wants a reduced quota on annual immigration, even if to my knowledge there hasn't been anything said specifically about that particular visa program.
That’s a big call to drop the USD by 25%. Some of the major currency players might have something to say about that!
We’ve been to New York twice and stayed at one of the camps where she was working. Travelled around the New England region and it is spectacular scenery. Boston reminded me very much of Melbourne. We also did a side trip to Nova Scotia and thoroughly enjoyed it. I have to commend the patience of your motorists there: I found it difficult to say the least, adjusting to driving on the right hand side of the road!
The forthcoming election will be held sometime in May. I doubt that Dutton will go into that level of detail for visas in policy releases in the election campaign. He has in the past made announcements regarding immigration changes which never eventuated. While the election will be close the most likely result will be an ALP minority Government so things should remain as they are.
Cheers!
Thanks for the insight. Helps me breathe a little easier.
This Mahmoud Khalil business is more than concerning, and no doubt a harbinger of more fascism and illegal actions by the Trump administration. Anyone concerned with free speech and the right to protest should take note and think about where this is heading.
"In interviews with CNN during spring 2024, while serving as a negotiator representing student demonstrators during talks with Columbia University's administration, Khalil explained his motivation: "As a Palestinian student, I believe that the liberation of the Palestinian people and the Jewish people are intertwined and go hand-by-hand and you cannot achieve one without the other." He further characterized the movement as one "for social justice and freedom and equality for everyone."
This doesn't sound like an antisemite, and as he has not expressed support of Hamas or been charged with any crime, his arrest and detention is lawfully and morally wrong and unjust. Fucked, in fact.
...and there's ol' JD browbeating Europe and Australia about free speech as they prepare to deport someone who spoke freely.
It’s costly speech.
Akin to accusing ppl protesting the Iraq war of being sadaam supporters.
“ "This administration is not going to tolerate individuals having the privilege of studying in our country and then siding with pro-terrorist organisations that have killed Americans,"
flollo wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:@ Follo
All negative's aside of the short term effect of tarrifs (and remembering no pain no gain with most thing's in life)
And just trying to figure out Trumps real long term aim with tarrifs.
Do you think it's possible that Trump is putting blanket tarrifs over countries in an aim to raise money quickly. (hoping many countries dont want to get in a trade war like Australia)
Would it be possible to then really reduce the USA debt along with other cost cutting measures through DOGE (more a long term reduction slowing down increase in debt)
Then over time he negotiates with countries on each area of trade and even removes certain tarrifs.
This seems to be his way he operates on other things in negotiation's.
With the tariffs that remain USA gov has extra income so is then able to reduce or even remove taxes on USA business in the USA encouraging business back to the USA
BTW. Question is aimed at you, cause you actually seem to have knowledge about this area and a more balanced view in general and interested in discussion rather than just bitching or getting into conflict
Hi Indo, this is a complex, multifaceted issue. First of all, yes I would argue that this is a revenue raising move. The US doesn't have VAT like Europe (or GST like in Aus). Sales tax is collected by individual states. There are not many revenue raising levers that feds can do. Well, you can raise income and corporate taxes but Trump won't do that so tariffs are an obvious choice.
For the long term plan, you cannot look at tariffs in isolation. The economics as a whole is a combination of hundreds of individual supply and demand drivers. Here's a bit of a provoking theory; tariffs are paid by the tariffed country through the drop of their standard of living. In other words, the exchange rate move and the tariff can potentially completely offset each other. For example, if a company in Canada charges me $1 CAD for a product and I buy a 100 of them then I need to pay $100 CAD. For simplicity sake, let's assume $1USD = $1CAD. So it's $100USD. If there's a 20% tariff in place it costs me $120 CAD. But what if the exchange rate changed to $1USD = $1.20CAD. Then it still costs me $100 USD, meaning that tariff won't be inlfationary.
Now, things are a lot more complex in real world. But you get the picture. Currency plays will be huge under Trump's administration. They are actually trying to restructure the global trading system. There is this view out there that this is all just Trump being erratic and he wakes up in the morning and makes shit up. I'm of an opinion that this view is completely wrong. I believe there is an 'army' of hundreds of people who are actively working on restructuring of global trade. The USD is a global reserve currency which keeps it overvalued with no end in sight. Not everyone is happy about this.
I suggest you look up Triffin Dilemma for more context -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma
If you (or anyone else) are truly interested I suggest you read this paper by Stephen Miran. He wrote it back in Nov and I wish I read it back then as I would have much better understanding of what's coming. He worked for Hudson Bay Capital back then but he actually just got confirmed as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers at Executive Office of the President. So, he will be a big voice in Trump's economic policy and you will understand where this is going if you read this paper. But in short, we are talking about some big changes and tariffs are only a smaller part of that.
Just a few paragraphs to set the scene:
'From a trade perspective, the dollar is persistently overvalued, in large part because dollar assets function as the world’s reserve currency. This overvaluation has weighed heavily on the American manufacturing sector while benefiting financialized sectors of the economy in manners that benefit wealthy Americans.'
'USTs (US Tresuries) become exported products which fuel the global trade system. In exporting USTs, America receives foreign currency, which is then spent, usually on imported goods. America runs large current account deficits not because it imports too much, but it imports too much because it must export USTs to provide reserve assets and facilitate global growth. This view has been discussed by prominent policymakers from both the United States (e.g. Feldstein and Volcker, 2013) as well as China (e.g. Zhou, 2009).'
'As the United States shrinks relative to global GDP, the current account or fiscal deficit it must run to fund global trade and savings pools grows larger as a share of the domestic economy. Therefore, as the rest of the world grows, the consequences for our own export sectors—an overvalued dollar incentivizing imports—become more difficult to bear, and the pain inflicted on that portion of the economy increases.'
'According to the World Trade Organization, the United States effective tariff on imports is the lowest any nation in the world imposes at about 3%, while the European Union imposes about 5% and China 10%. These numbers are averages across all imports and not reflective of bilateral tariff rates; bilateral discrepancies can be much larger, for instance the U.S. imposes only 2.5% tariffs on auto imports from the E.U., while Europe
imposes a 10% duty on American auto imports.'Read the paper and you will learn a lot:
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_...
For the other side, I'm sharing a critique of this paper as well. It's quite short and not as comprehensive but I thought I'll share a different view for context.
https://www.aei.org/economics/council-of-economic-advisors-chair-nominee...
https://www.aei.org/economics/cea-chair-nominee-stephen-mirans-critique-...
Thanks i will give those a read,
flollo wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:@ Follo
All negative's aside of the short term effect of tarrifs (and remembering no pain no gain with most thing's in life)
And just trying to figure out Trumps real long term aim with tarrifs.
Do you think it's possible that Trump is putting blanket tarrifs over countries in an aim to raise money quickly. (hoping many countries dont want to get in a trade war like Australia)
Would it be possible to then really reduce the USA debt along with other cost cutting measures through DOGE (more a long term reduction slowing down increase in debt)
Then over time he negotiates with countries on each area of trade and even removes certain tarrifs.
This seems to be his way he operates on other things in negotiation's.
With the tariffs that remain USA gov has extra income so is then able to reduce or even remove taxes on USA business in the USA encouraging business back to the USA
BTW. Question is aimed at you, cause you actually seem to have knowledge about this area and a more balanced view in general and interested in discussion rather than just bitching or getting into conflict
Hi Indo, this is a complex, multifaceted issue. First of all, yes I would argue that this is a revenue raising move. The US doesn't have VAT like Europe (or GST like in Aus). Sales tax is collected by individual states. There are not many revenue raising levers that feds can do. Well, you can raise income and corporate taxes but Trump won't do that so tariffs are an obvious choice.
For the long term plan, you cannot look at tariffs in isolation. The economics as a whole is a combination of hundreds of individual supply and demand drivers. Here's a bit of a provoking theory; tariffs are paid by the tariffed country through the drop of their standard of living. In other words, the exchange rate move and the tariff can potentially completely offset each other. For example, if a company in Canada charges me $1 CAD for a product and I buy a 100 of them then I need to pay $100 CAD. For simplicity sake, let's assume $1USD = $1CAD. So it's $100USD. If there's a 20% tariff in place it costs me $120 CAD. But what if the exchange rate changed to $1USD = $1.20CAD. Then it still costs me $100 USD, meaning that tariff won't be inlfationary.
Now, things are a lot more complex in real world. But you get the picture. Currency plays will be huge under Trump's administration. They are actually trying to restructure the global trading system. There is this view out there that this is all just Trump being erratic and he wakes up in the morning and makes shit up. I'm of an opinion that this view is completely wrong. I believe there is an 'army' of hundreds of people who are actively working on restructuring of global trade. The USD is a global reserve currency which keeps it overvalued with no end in sight. Not everyone is happy about this.
I suggest you look up Triffin Dilemma for more context -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma
If you (or anyone else) are truly interested I suggest you read this paper by Stephen Miran. He wrote it back in Nov and I wish I read it back then as I would have much better understanding of what's coming. He worked for Hudson Bay Capital back then but he actually just got confirmed as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers at Executive Office of the President. So, he will be a big voice in Trump's economic policy and you will understand where this is going if you read this paper. But in short, we are talking about some big changes and tariffs are only a smaller part of that.
Just a few paragraphs to set the scene:
'From a trade perspective, the dollar is persistently overvalued, in large part because dollar assets function as the world’s reserve currency. This overvaluation has weighed heavily on the American manufacturing sector while benefiting financialized sectors of the economy in manners that benefit wealthy Americans.'
'USTs (US Tresuries) become exported products which fuel the global trade system. In exporting USTs, America receives foreign currency, which is then spent, usually on imported goods. America runs large current account deficits not because it imports too much, but it imports too much because it must export USTs to provide reserve assets and facilitate global growth. This view has been discussed by prominent policymakers from both the United States (e.g. Feldstein and Volcker, 2013) as well as China (e.g. Zhou, 2009).'
'As the United States shrinks relative to global GDP, the current account or fiscal deficit it must run to fund global trade and savings pools grows larger as a share of the domestic economy. Therefore, as the rest of the world grows, the consequences for our own export sectors—an overvalued dollar incentivizing imports—become more difficult to bear, and the pain inflicted on that portion of the economy increases.'
'According to the World Trade Organization, the United States effective tariff on imports is the lowest any nation in the world imposes at about 3%, while the European Union imposes about 5% and China 10%. These numbers are averages across all imports and not reflective of bilateral tariff rates; bilateral discrepancies can be much larger, for instance the U.S. imposes only 2.5% tariffs on auto imports from the E.U., while Europe
imposes a 10% duty on American auto imports.'Read the paper and you will learn a lot:
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_...
For the other side, I'm sharing a critique of this paper as well. It's quite short and not as comprehensive but I thought I'll share a different view for context.
https://www.aei.org/economics/council-of-economic-advisors-chair-nominee...
https://www.aei.org/economics/cea-chair-nominee-stephen-mirans-critique-...
Hi flollo,
I have read half the doc you posted. Not easy reading but a few things stood out for me so far.
First he is being quite optimistic with Trump's policies, hence being made chairman.
One thing that stuck out for me was the passage regarding the USD as world currency reserve so they can as per article:
''America can, and does, sanction people all over the globe in a variety of ways. From freezing assets to cutting nations off from SWIFT and restricting access to the U.S. banking and financial system that is critical for any foreign bank doing global business, the U.S. exerts its financial might to achieve foreign policy ends of weakening enemies without having to mobilize a single soldier.''
Would this not further increase the chance of countries uniting to go for an alternative currency etc for trade? As Brics have discussed etc. Any potential here to challenge petro dollar?
Further on the article
""America provides a global defense shield to liberal democracies, and in exchange, America receives the benefits of reserve status—and, as we are grappling with today, the burdens.""
The USA seems to be losing the liberal democracy tag very quickly. Surely some countries may start to push back if the US is no longer seen as the beacon of democracy, but a country that supports an active genocide and deports people partaking in peaceful protest.
They have pissed off their close allies already Australia included.
Will this as written below from article still be the case?
""The U.S. dollar is the reserve asset in large part because America provides stability, liquidity, market depth and the rule of law."'
Then on top of tariffs against traditional allies they:
""threatened to punish countries that move away from the dollar. I expect this tension to be resolved by policies that aim to preserve the status of the dollar, but improve burden sharing with our trading partners.""
Could this just further strengthen and encourage countries looking towards BRICS etc?
And finally from what I have managed to read so far;
""Countries that want to be inside the defense umbrella must also be inside the fair trade umbrella. Such a tool can be used to pressure other nations to join our tariffs against China, creating a multilateral approach toward tariffs.""
This is not great for Australia, it looks like we would have to choose between losing our biggest trading partner with horrendous economic implications, or be excluded from the US's defence umbrella, there goes AUKUS.
Anyway, sorry to others if this is too long, but find it quite interesting and frightening.
What it does do me is scream out Australia has to become more independent defence wise asap, piss off AUKUS and endeavour to keep good relations with our Asian neighbours as our future prosperity lies there.
I reckon personally coming from admittedly incomplete knowledge and understanding that this will not end well for the people of the USA. Only hope it stays there and doesn't spread and bring down the rest of the world's economy.
Distracted wrote:ID, a lot of the tariffs appear to be being applied as a negotiating/extortion tactic rather than a long term economic plan.
Curious what he wants from Australia… change in government perhaps?
I agree to an extent but i also think there is something more he has planned, hence why not just tariffs and more broader.
I cant recall exactly but the the target on Aust steel/metals is related to manufacturing and military industry in USA
indo-dreaming wrote:Distracted wrote:ID, a lot of the tariffs appear to be being applied as a negotiating/extortion tactic rather than a long term economic plan.
Curious what he wants from Australia… change in government perhaps?
I agree to an extent but i also think there is something more he has planned, hence why not just tariffs and more broader.
I cant recall exactly but the the target on Aust steel/metals is related to manufacturing and military industry in USA
Sorry I meant to say "not just targeted tarrifs, but more just broader across the board blanketed tarrifs on everything"
Great post there Flollo, nicely picked up. Will read further.
Guantanamo Bay has just been emptied of undocumented immigrants because it was illegal to hold them there and illegal to fly unauthorised flights of undocumented immigrants , back to foreign countries .
Border czar Homan is failing in his bid to round up illegal immigrants, with only a fraction of the promised number being arrested.
So Trump is failing in everything, even his deportation policy .
That’s why he held a press conference to buy a Tesla , as a distraction from Guantanamo Bay , where not one question was asked about it . The compliant media keeps us in the dark.
Let me guess , MTN ?
Supafreak wrote:Let me guess , MTN ?
Wrong again halfwit
Lawrence O’Donnell MSNBC
So you’re going to dispute it again are you because it hasn’t been on X you Twit .
Your dumbness is always being normalised,
like Trump.
David French
New York Times opinion columnist
“ Trump is supplementing his malice
with incompetence “
“ And he’s team is supplementing their malice, with incompetence “ .
Congress could stop Trumps tariffs,
by voting that there is no economic emergency, which is what Trump is using to impose tariffs with his executive orders.
But Republicans don’t have the spine.
Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Let me guess , MTN ?
Wrong again halfwit
Lawrence O’Donnell MSNBC
So you’re going to dispute it again are you because it hasn’t been on X you Twit .
Your dumbness is always being normalised,
like Trump.
Another outstanding far left “ news “ source with a fine history of BS . https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/msnbc/ little wonder jeffy is so confused.
Supafreak wrote:Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Let me guess , MTN ?
Wrong again halfwit
Lawrence O’Donnell MSNBC
So you’re going to dispute it again are you because it hasn’t been on X you Twit .
Your dumbness is always being normalised,
like Trump.Another outstanding far left “ news “ source with a fine history of BS . https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/msnbc/ little wonder jeffy is so confused.
Just like you couldn’t believe Trump wanted to annexe Canada and take over Greenland
weeks after everyone else knew about it,
Your ignorance is a powerful weapon.
So give me some evidence that they’re still using Guantanamo Bay for undocumented immigrants, if you’re so intelligent?
Crickets!
Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Let me guess , MTN ?
Wrong again halfwit
Lawrence O’Donnell MSNBC
So you’re going to dispute it again are you because it hasn’t been on X you Twit .
Your dumbness is always being normalised,
like Trump.Another outstanding far left “ news “ source with a fine history of BS . https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/msnbc/ little wonder jeffy is so confused.
Just like you couldn’t believe Trump wanted to annexe Canada and take over Greenland
weeks after everyone else knew about it,
Your ignorance is a powerful weapon.
So give me some evidence that they’re still using Guantanamo Bay for undocumented immigrants, if you’re so intelligent?
Crickets!
Telling porky pies again jeffy , you love making shit up . You said Trump was going to invade Canada, Mexico , Greenland and military force to take back the Panama canal . I called you out on this and you doubled down on it . Your delusion & confusion is a result of the YouTube videos that have brainwashed you and have caused you to fall very very ill with TDS . Trying to say what I believe , which you have no idea , after you repeatedly make statements about invasion of these countries is a poor deflection. Enjoy your day glued to YouTube.
Trump said yesterday he wouldn’t tariff Canada if they agreed to become the US 51 st state , if you miss all this because you are so slow, don’t troll me Einstein, no one else does
And where is your news source disputing the
MSNBC report on Guantanamo Bay.
You think you’re better than respected US journalists and lawyers ,
Troll behaviour
Confusion wrote:Trump said yesterday he wouldn’t tariff Canada if they agreed to become the US 51 st state , if you miss all this because you are so slow, don’t troll me Einstein, no one else does.
I’ve been busy surfing jeffy , it doesn’t take long to read reputable news articles about what’s going on , much quicker than YouTube. Why have you changed your tune from “ invasion “ to tariffs?
The other day Trump said the border between the US and Canada is just an artificial line that someone drew with a ruler a long time ago and how beautiful the map looks with one big US of A. He said the treaty that demarcates the border isn't valid and he wants to revise it.
Noone is saying he would use the military to invade Canada but none the less this is crazy unhinged lunacy and shows his complete disregard for sovereign countries.
Meanwhile of course the Mexican border is a different story.
Trump says a lot of dumb things , pretty much everyday. A bit like jeffy .
Confusion wrote:Trump said yesterday he wouldn’t tariff Canada if they agreed to become the US 51 st state , if you miss all this because you are so slow, don’t troll me Einstein, no one else does
And where is your news source disputing the
MSNBC report on Guantanamo Bay.
You think you’re better than respected US journalists and lawyers ,
Troll behaviour
Confuscious is it true TrumpADA is Donny;s new name for his new state?
Show us that YouTube please?
Supafreak wrote:Confusion wrote:Trump said yesterday he wouldn’t tariff Canada if they agreed to become the US 51 st state , if you miss all this because you are so slow, don’t troll me Einstein, no one else does.
I’ve been busy surfing jeffy , it doesn’t take long to read reputable news articles about what’s going on , much quicker than YouTube. Why have you changed your tune from “ invasion “ to tariffs?
Trump said he wouldn’t rule out military action against Greenland and Panama ,at a news conference months ago, he also threatened to use the US military to wipe out Mexican drug cartels in Mexico
So maybe he didn’t actually say invade Canada , I don’t think I did either,
But if you missed all the others stop trolling me
And if you were surfing and had no idea what was happening, you are using your ignorance once again.
quadzilla wrote:Confusion wrote:Trump said yesterday he wouldn’t tariff Canada if they agreed to become the US 51 st state , if you miss all this because you are so slow, don’t troll me Einstein, no one else does
And where is your news source disputing the
MSNBC report on Guantanamo Bay.
You think you’re better than respected US journalists and lawyers ,
Troll behaviourConfuscious is it true TrumpADA is Donny;s new name for his new state?
Show us that YouTube please?
Why should I waste my time because dumbos can’t find it for themselves,
That’s the age old problem
If you don’t know about it, it can’t possibly be true , and if I do find it you won’t give a toss anyway as an anonymous troll,
That’s your enjoyment.
Confusion wrote:quadzilla wrote:Confusion wrote:Trump said yesterday he wouldn’t tariff Canada if they agreed to become the US 51 st state , if you miss all this because you are so slow, don’t troll me Einstein, no one else does
And where is your news source disputing the
MSNBC report on Guantanamo Bay.
You think you’re better than respected US journalists and lawyers ,
Troll behaviourConfuscious is it true TrumpADA is Donny;s new name for his new state?
Show us that YouTube please?
Why should I waste my time because dumbos can’t find it for themselves,
That’s the age old problem
If you don’t know about it, it can’t possibly be true , and if I do find it you won’t give a toss anyway as an anonymous troll,
That’s your enjoyment.
I do enjoy you JeffY, hows that beginners class @ the surf school going btw?..Still wearing my MAGA shirt and cap to impress the girls?
andy-mac wrote:flollo wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:@ Follo
All negative's aside of the short term effect of tarrifs (and remembering no pain no gain with most thing's in life)
And just trying to figure out Trumps real long term aim with tarrifs.
Do you think it's possible that Trump is putting blanket tarrifs over countries in an aim to raise money quickly. (hoping many countries dont want to get in a trade war like Australia)
Would it be possible to then really reduce the USA debt along with other cost cutting measures through DOGE (more a long term reduction slowing down increase in debt)
Then over time he negotiates with countries on each area of trade and even removes certain tarrifs.
This seems to be his way he operates on other things in negotiation's.
With the tariffs that remain USA gov has extra income so is then able to reduce or even remove taxes on USA business in the USA encouraging business back to the USA
BTW. Question is aimed at you, cause you actually seem to have knowledge about this area and a more balanced view in general and interested in discussion rather than just bitching or getting into conflict
Hi Indo, this is a complex, multifaceted issue. First of all, yes I would argue that this is a revenue raising move. The US doesn't have VAT like Europe (or GST like in Aus). Sales tax is collected by individual states. There are not many revenue raising levers that feds can do. Well, you can raise income and corporate taxes but Trump won't do that so tariffs are an obvious choice.
For the long term plan, you cannot look at tariffs in isolation. The economics as a whole is a combination of hundreds of individual supply and demand drivers. Here's a bit of a provoking theory; tariffs are paid by the tariffed country through the drop of their standard of living. In other words, the exchange rate move and the tariff can potentially completely offset each other. For example, if a company in Canada charges me $1 CAD for a product and I buy a 100 of them then I need to pay $100 CAD. For simplicity sake, let's assume $1USD = $1CAD. So it's $100USD. If there's a 20% tariff in place it costs me $120 CAD. But what if the exchange rate changed to $1USD = $1.20CAD. Then it still costs me $100 USD, meaning that tariff won't be inlfationary.
Now, things are a lot more complex in real world. But you get the picture. Currency plays will be huge under Trump's administration. They are actually trying to restructure the global trading system. There is this view out there that this is all just Trump being erratic and he wakes up in the morning and makes shit up. I'm of an opinion that this view is completely wrong. I believe there is an 'army' of hundreds of people who are actively working on restructuring of global trade. The USD is a global reserve currency which keeps it overvalued with no end in sight. Not everyone is happy about this.
I suggest you look up Triffin Dilemma for more context -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma
If you (or anyone else) are truly interested I suggest you read this paper by Stephen Miran. He wrote it back in Nov and I wish I read it back then as I would have much better understanding of what's coming. He worked for Hudson Bay Capital back then but he actually just got confirmed as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers at Executive Office of the President. So, he will be a big voice in Trump's economic policy and you will understand where this is going if you read this paper. But in short, we are talking about some big changes and tariffs are only a smaller part of that.
Just a few paragraphs to set the scene:
'From a trade perspective, the dollar is persistently overvalued, in large part because dollar assets function as the world’s reserve currency. This overvaluation has weighed heavily on the American manufacturing sector while benefiting financialized sectors of the economy in manners that benefit wealthy Americans.'
'USTs (US Tresuries) become exported products which fuel the global trade system. In exporting USTs, America receives foreign currency, which is then spent, usually on imported goods. America runs large current account deficits not because it imports too much, but it imports too much because it must export USTs to provide reserve assets and facilitate global growth. This view has been discussed by prominent policymakers from both the United States (e.g. Feldstein and Volcker, 2013) as well as China (e.g. Zhou, 2009).'
'As the United States shrinks relative to global GDP, the current account or fiscal deficit it must run to fund global trade and savings pools grows larger as a share of the domestic economy. Therefore, as the rest of the world grows, the consequences for our own export sectors—an overvalued dollar incentivizing imports—become more difficult to bear, and the pain inflicted on that portion of the economy increases.'
'According to the World Trade Organization, the United States effective tariff on imports is the lowest any nation in the world imposes at about 3%, while the European Union imposes about 5% and China 10%. These numbers are averages across all imports and not reflective of bilateral tariff rates; bilateral discrepancies can be much larger, for instance the U.S. imposes only 2.5% tariffs on auto imports from the E.U., while Europe
imposes a 10% duty on American auto imports.'Read the paper and you will learn a lot:
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_...
For the other side, I'm sharing a critique of this paper as well. It's quite short and not as comprehensive but I thought I'll share a different view for context.
https://www.aei.org/economics/council-of-economic-advisors-chair-nominee...
https://www.aei.org/economics/cea-chair-nominee-stephen-mirans-critique-...
Hi flollo,
I have read half the doc you posted. Not easy reading but a few things stood out for me so far.
First he is being quite optimistic with Trump's policies, hence being made chairman.
One thing that stuck out for me was the passage regarding the USD as world currency reserve so they can as per article:
''America can, and does, sanction people all over the globe in a variety of ways. From freezing assets to cutting nations off from SWIFT and restricting access to the U.S. banking and financial system that is critical for any foreign bank doing global business, the U.S. exerts its financial might to achieve foreign policy ends of weakening enemies without having to mobilize a single soldier.''Would this not further increase the chance of countries uniting to go for an alternative currency etc for trade? As Brics have discussed etc. Any potential here to challenge petro dollar?
Further on the article
""America provides a global defense shield to liberal democracies, and in exchange, America receives the benefits of reserve status—and, as we are grappling with today, the burdens.""
The USA seems to be losing the liberal democracy tag very quickly. Surely some countries may start to push back if the US is no longer seen as the beacon of democracy, but a country that supports an active genocide and deports people partaking in peaceful protest.
They have pissed off their close allies already Australia included.
Will this as written below from article still be the case?
""The U.S. dollar is the reserve asset in large part because America provides stability, liquidity, market depth and the rule of law."'Then on top of tariffs against traditional allies they:
""threatened to punish countries that move away from the dollar. I expect this tension to be resolved by policies that aim to preserve the status of the dollar, but improve burden sharing with our trading partners.""
Could this just further strengthen and encourage countries looking towards BRICS etc?
And finally from what I have managed to read so far;
""Countries that want to be inside the defense umbrella must also be inside the fair trade umbrella. Such a tool can be used to pressure other nations to join our tariffs against China, creating a multilateral approach toward tariffs.""
This is not great for Australia, it looks like we would have to choose between losing our biggest trading partner with horrendous economic implications, or be excluded from the US's defence umbrella, there goes AUKUS.
Anyway, sorry to others if this is too long, but find it quite interesting and frightening.
What it does do me is scream out Australia has to become more independent defence wise asap, piss off AUKUS and endeavour to keep good relations with our Asian neighbours as our future prosperity lies there.I reckon personally coming from admittedly incomplete knowledge and understanding that this will not end well for the people of the USA. Only hope it stays there and doesn't spread and bring down the rest of the world's economy.
Some good observations there. Like you said, the US sanctions countries they don't 'agree' with. That often comes through financial limitations or even like in Russia's case cutting them off SWIFT system. You will probably see BRICS building a SWIFT alternative first. This will help them avoid any future sanctions. Building a currency is a big beast of work. I mean you can build a currency but then providing enough liquidity to fuel world's growth is an enormous undertaking. I don't see it happening anytime soon but I do see a SWIFT alternative being developed in near future. We also can't ignore the fact that the US, the EU and China are world's biggest trading partners. As much as they might hate each other, business and individuals will keep on trading no matter what happens politically.
You questioned if this is still the case:
""The U.S. dollar is the reserve asset in large part because America provides stability, liquidity, market depth and the rule of law."'
I would say that stability and the rule of law is seriously challenged but market depth and liquidity are unparalleled and are still the best in the US. Depends how it plays out. Look what happened in the UK after Brexit which was an extreme isolationist moment. In my opinion, the country as a whole lost but London didn't stop being the world's mega finance centre. The US won't be any less than that, money will still flow but that is not a guarantee of better standard of living.
Your observation about Australia being wedged between the US and China. Yes, you are 100% spot on. This is a massive risk for us. We should be arming ourselves to the teeth, independently. I don't trust the US. And I obviously have zero trust in China. I know it might sound extreme but I even think that Australia might need nuclear weapons stationed here. The US defense shield assumes their nuclear weapons. Japand and Germany are a good example. What do you think that one of the first things Germany did as this shit went down? Started negotiating with the UK and France about getting covered under their nuclear weapons. I'm reading similar rumours about Japan but they will have to buy their own.
Confusion wrote:Supafreak wrote:Confusion wrote:Trump said yesterday he wouldn’t tariff Canada if they agreed to become the US 51 st state , if you miss all this because you are so slow, don’t troll me Einstein, no one else does.
I’ve been busy surfing jeffy , it doesn’t take long to read reputable news articles about what’s going on , much quicker than YouTube. Why have you changed your tune from “ invasion “ to tariffs?
Trump said he wouldn’t rule out military action against Greenland and Panama ,at a news conference months ago, he also threatened to use the US military to wipe out Mexican drug cartels in Mexico
So maybe he didn’t actually say invade Canada , I don’t think I did either,
But if you missed all the others stop trolling me
And if you were surfing and had no idea what was happening, you are using your ignorance once again.
Oh you definitely wrote that the US was going to invade those countries, that’s why I called you out about it , no reputable news sources were saying this but your TDS has you making shit up . Yes Trump did say he couldn’t rule out using military force in answering a two part question. Most people understand that Trump answers stupid questions with stupid answers and plays the media . Then the grifters make videos that brainwash people into believing and saying all kinds of kooky statements , but yeah I’m the slow one .
flollo wrote:andy-mac wrote:flollo wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:@ Follo
All negative's aside of the short term effect of tarrifs (and remembering no pain no gain with most thing's in life)
And just trying to figure out Trumps real long term aim with tarrifs.
Do you think it's possible that Trump is putting blanket tarrifs over countries in an aim to raise money quickly. (hoping many countries dont want to get in a trade war like Australia)
Would it be possible to then really reduce the USA debt along with other cost cutting measures through DOGE (more a long term reduction slowing down increase in debt)
Then over time he negotiates with countries on each area of trade and even removes certain tarrifs.
This seems to be his way he operates on other things in negotiation's.
With the tariffs that remain USA gov has extra income so is then able to reduce or even remove taxes on USA business in the USA encouraging business back to the USA
BTW. Question is aimed at you, cause you actually seem to have knowledge about this area and a more balanced view in general and interested in discussion rather than just bitching or getting into conflict
Hi Indo, this is a complex, multifaceted issue. First of all, yes I would argue that this is a revenue raising move. The US doesn't have VAT like Europe (or GST like in Aus). Sales tax is collected by individual states. There are not many revenue raising levers that feds can do. Well, you can raise income and corporate taxes but Trump won't do that so tariffs are an obvious choice.
For the long term plan, you cannot look at tariffs in isolation. The economics as a whole is a combination of hundreds of individual supply and demand drivers. Here's a bit of a provoking theory; tariffs are paid by the tariffed country through the drop of their standard of living. In other words, the exchange rate move and the tariff can potentially completely offset each other. For example, if a company in Canada charges me $1 CAD for a product and I buy a 100 of them then I need to pay $100 CAD. For simplicity sake, let's assume $1USD = $1CAD. So it's $100USD. If there's a 20% tariff in place it costs me $120 CAD. But what if the exchange rate changed to $1USD = $1.20CAD. Then it still costs me $100 USD, meaning that tariff won't be inlfationary.
Now, things are a lot more complex in real world. But you get the picture. Currency plays will be huge under Trump's administration. They are actually trying to restructure the global trading system. There is this view out there that this is all just Trump being erratic and he wakes up in the morning and makes shit up. I'm of an opinion that this view is completely wrong. I believe there is an 'army' of hundreds of people who are actively working on restructuring of global trade. The USD is a global reserve currency which keeps it overvalued with no end in sight. Not everyone is happy about this.
I suggest you look up Triffin Dilemma for more context -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma
If you (or anyone else) are truly interested I suggest you read this paper by Stephen Miran. He wrote it back in Nov and I wish I read it back then as I would have much better understanding of what's coming. He worked for Hudson Bay Capital back then but he actually just got confirmed as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers at Executive Office of the President. So, he will be a big voice in Trump's economic policy and you will understand where this is going if you read this paper. But in short, we are talking about some big changes and tariffs are only a smaller part of that.
Just a few paragraphs to set the scene:
'From a trade perspective, the dollar is persistently overvalued, in large part because dollar assets function as the world’s reserve currency. This overvaluation has weighed heavily on the American manufacturing sector while benefiting financialized sectors of the economy in manners that benefit wealthy Americans.'
'USTs (US Tresuries) become exported products which fuel the global trade system. In exporting USTs, America receives foreign currency, which is then spent, usually on imported goods. America runs large current account deficits not because it imports too much, but it imports too much because it must export USTs to provide reserve assets and facilitate global growth. This view has been discussed by prominent policymakers from both the United States (e.g. Feldstein and Volcker, 2013) as well as China (e.g. Zhou, 2009).'
'As the United States shrinks relative to global GDP, the current account or fiscal deficit it must run to fund global trade and savings pools grows larger as a share of the domestic economy. Therefore, as the rest of the world grows, the consequences for our own export sectors—an overvalued dollar incentivizing imports—become more difficult to bear, and the pain inflicted on that portion of the economy increases.'
'According to the World Trade Organization, the United States effective tariff on imports is the lowest any nation in the world imposes at about 3%, while the European Union imposes about 5% and China 10%. These numbers are averages across all imports and not reflective of bilateral tariff rates; bilateral discrepancies can be much larger, for instance the U.S. imposes only 2.5% tariffs on auto imports from the E.U., while Europe
imposes a 10% duty on American auto imports.'Read the paper and you will learn a lot:
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_...
For the other side, I'm sharing a critique of this paper as well. It's quite short and not as comprehensive but I thought I'll share a different view for context.
https://www.aei.org/economics/council-of-economic-advisors-chair-nominee...
https://www.aei.org/economics/cea-chair-nominee-stephen-mirans-critique-...
Hi flollo,
I have read half the doc you posted. Not easy reading but a few things stood out for me so far.
First he is being quite optimistic with Trump's policies, hence being made chairman.
One thing that stuck out for me was the passage regarding the USD as world currency reserve so they can as per article:
''America can, and does, sanction people all over the globe in a variety of ways. From freezing assets to cutting nations off from SWIFT and restricting access to the U.S. banking and financial system that is critical for any foreign bank doing global business, the U.S. exerts its financial might to achieve foreign policy ends of weakening enemies without having to mobilize a single soldier.''Would this not further increase the chance of countries uniting to go for an alternative currency etc for trade? As Brics have discussed etc. Any potential here to challenge petro dollar?
Further on the article
""America provides a global defense shield to liberal democracies, and in exchange, America receives the benefits of reserve status—and, as we are grappling with today, the burdens.""
The USA seems to be losing the liberal democracy tag very quickly. Surely some countries may start to push back if the US is no longer seen as the beacon of democracy, but a country that supports an active genocide and deports people partaking in peaceful protest.
They have pissed off their close allies already Australia included.
Will this as written below from article still be the case?
""The U.S. dollar is the reserve asset in large part because America provides stability, liquidity, market depth and the rule of law."'Then on top of tariffs against traditional allies they:
""threatened to punish countries that move away from the dollar. I expect this tension to be resolved by policies that aim to preserve the status of the dollar, but improve burden sharing with our trading partners.""
Could this just further strengthen and encourage countries looking towards BRICS etc?
And finally from what I have managed to read so far;
""Countries that want to be inside the defense umbrella must also be inside the fair trade umbrella. Such a tool can be used to pressure other nations to join our tariffs against China, creating a multilateral approach toward tariffs.""
This is not great for Australia, it looks like we would have to choose between losing our biggest trading partner with horrendous economic implications, or be excluded from the US's defence umbrella, there goes AUKUS.
Anyway, sorry to others if this is too long, but find it quite interesting and frightening.
What it does do me is scream out Australia has to become more independent defence wise asap, piss off AUKUS and endeavour to keep good relations with our Asian neighbours as our future prosperity lies there.I reckon personally coming from admittedly incomplete knowledge and understanding that this will not end well for the people of the USA. Only hope it stays there and doesn't spread and bring down the rest of the world's economy.
Some good observations there. Like you said, the US sanctions countries they don't 'agree' with. That often comes through financial limitations or even like in Russia's case cutting them off SWIFT system. You will probably see BRICS building a SWIFT alternative first. This will help them avoid any future sanctions. Building a currency is a big beast of work. I mean you can build a currency but then providing enough liquidity to fuel world's growth is an enormous undertaking. I don't see it happening anytime soon but I do see a SWIFT alternative being developed in near future. We also can't ignore the fact that the US, the EU and China are world's biggest trading partners. As much as they might hate each other, business and individuals will keep on trading no matter what happens politically.
You questioned if this is still the case:
""The U.S. dollar is the reserve asset in large part because America provides stability, liquidity, market depth and the rule of law."'
I would say that stability and the rule of law is seriously challenged but market depth and liquidity are unparalleled and are still the best in the US. Depends how it plays out. Look what happened in the UK after Brexit which was an extreme isolationist moment. In my opinion, the country as a whole lost but London didn't stop being the world's mega finance centre. The US won't be any less than that, money will still flow but that is not a guarantee of better standard of living.
Your observation about Australia being wedged between the US and China. Yes, you are 100% spot on. This is a massive risk for us. We should be arming ourselves to the teeth, independently. I don't trust the US. And I obviously have zero trust in China. I know it might sound extreme but I even think that Australia might need nuclear weapons stationed here. The US defense shield assumes their nuclear weapons. Japand and Germany are a good example. What do you think that one of the first things Germany did as this shit went down? Started negotiating with the UK and France about getting covered under their nuclear weapons. I'm reading similar rumours about Japan but they will have to buy their own.
Cheers flollo,
Yes I agree, never would I have thought that Australia should go down the nuclear weapon pathway, but my view has/ is changing.
Anyway have said it before, but yes, we need to get our shit together very quickly, so no country even wishes to contemplate trying to attack/ invade. No military background but would be thinking changing our tact to purely homeland defence rather than being able to project power aligned with USA.
Defence missiles, etc
Saying that I cannot see China invading or attacking unless we were partaking in an operation with the USA.
Hence the wedge, we may be forced by the US to be involved.
Still believe they are a trading nation looking to increase their standard of living for their citizens to ensure there is not domestic issues.
War would not be good for business. But that does not stop Australia from making it unthinkable for them or any other nation to give it a crack.
Absoltely. The other thing we need to think about is protection of trading routes to Australia. Wether we like it or not, we produce very little domestically. We would struggle with basics if those routes were to be cutoff. We need to bring industry back for strategic reasons, even when it doesn't have a compelling economic case. I can see that being discussed in Trump's policy as well, it's not all about economics.
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