Victorian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday February 17th)

Best Days: Friday on the beaches, selected beaches Saturday, Surf Coast next Monday depening on the size

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing swell into tomorrow with moderate W/NW tending strong S/SW-SW winds from late AM
• Building mix of windswell and W/SW groundswell tomorrow PM
• Better mix of SW groundswell and W/SW swell Wed with fresh S/SW tending SW winds
• Easing surf Thu with gusty S tending weaker S/SE winds
• Small-mod sized mid-period S/SW swell for Fri/Sat AM, easing
• E/NE tending NE winds Fri, possibly variable later
• Strong N/NE-N winds Sat
• Gusty W/SW-W winds Sun with a small increase in swell
• New W'ly groundswell Mon with W/NW tending W/SW winds

Recap

Saturday morning offered a window of decent waves on the Surf Coast with a mix of swells in the water to 3-4ft under offshore winds. Firstly there was a mid-period swell from a low that quickly dipped south-east through our swell window, followed by building levels of local S/SW swell generated by a secondary polar front pushing up and into us.

This provided the most size as conditions started to deteriorate from about 10am as the front pushed through. Yesterday was a write-off with gusty onshore winds and nowhere to hide while this morning the wind and swell have backed off a touch more with average waves for the keen across the state. Conditions should continue to improve slowly though as winds continue to ease.

This week and weekend (Feb 18 - 23)

The surf is due to reach a low point in size tomorrow morning, with clean conditions on the Surf Coast under a W/NW offshore, just before a trough brings a strong S/SW change late morning/midday.

Small 2ft sets are likely on the Surf Coast magnets in the morning while the change itself will bring an increase in localised windswell, mixed in with some new small, long-period swell that’s not due to show any real size until Wednesday.

The source of tomorrow afternoon/evening’s increase in small W/SW groundswell and Wednesday’s better SW energy was a strong low that strengthened near the Heard Island region late last week as the remnants of severe Tropical Cyclone Vince drifted south into the westerly storm track.

An initial fetch of less than favourable aligned winds around the low proper will bring later tomorrow’s swell which should hold Wednesday, while a better aligned fetch was generated on the polar shelf, south of Western Australia on the weekend, producing a bigger, more consistent SW swell for Wednesday.

The Surf Coast should peak around 3-4ft with 6ft+ sets to the east but fresh S/SW winds are due to linger in the wake of tomorrow’s change, tending more SW through the day before strengthening later and then fresh but easing out of the S’th tending S/SE on Thursday as the swells fade.

As touched on last week, it won’t be until Friday that we see a stubborn high pressure system in the Bight move further east, allowing winds to swing E/NE through the morning, likely holding from the NE through the day. This will clean up the beaches and there should be some fun mid-period SW swell in the mix, similar Saturday owing to persistent but weak polar fronts passing under the country today and tomorrow (above left).

This should produce 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast into Friday with 4ft+ sets to the east, similar Saturday morning before easing into the afternoon. Strengthening N/NE-N winds will create tricky and less than ideal conditions through Saturday, with a cold front and W-W/SW change due into Sunday.

Now, this cold front will be ahead of a weakening mid-latitude low which is due to bring some very acute, W’ly swell into Monday. The low itself will be very strong but located north up towards the Bight from later this week, with the size for the Surf Coast likely to be tricky and only small to moderate at this stage.

With such a dynamic system, we’ll have to review the outlook again on Wednesday and Friday.