Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday January 1st)

Best Days: Saturday, Sunday exposed beaches, Monday morning Surf Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized W/SW swell for tomorrow with a stronger, less consistent groundswell for Friday 
• Gusty S-S/SE winds tomorrow, light to moderate E/SE Fri AM, freshening from the S/SE-SE into the PM
• Moderate sized SW groundswell for later Fri, easing Sat with local offshore winds (N/NE to the east, N/NW to the west), tending NE to the east into the PM ahead of a late S/SW change
• Smaller Sun AM, with a new W/SW swell for the PM with variable tending stronger NE winds
• Easing swell Mon with dawn N tending W/NW then S/SW winds

Recap

Happy New Year!

The swell eased a touch into yesterday though held 2ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets with clean morning conditions, workable to the east for the keen with a weak onshore breeze.

Today our first pulse of mid-period W/SW swell has arrived with early offshore winds and 3ft of swell on the Surf Coast with 4-5ft waves to the east but with a strengthening onshore wind. Winds have since shifted onshore across the Surf Coast creating increasing bumps and chops.

This week and weekend (Jan 2 - 5)

Today’s first pulse of swell will be followed up by a secondary stronger increase overnight, peaking tomorrow, and then a third increase in stronger but less consistent groundswell Friday.

The increasing swell energy was generated by a healthy progression of back to back lows moving towards us from the Heard Island region, with the initial low being weaker than the secondary system.

The swell from the first low is expected to be most consistent though, with the stronger gale to sever-gale fetch linked to the second low developing further away from us.

Tomorrow should come in around 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east, while later in the day we may see the size kick a little more ahead of a peak Friday to a less consistent 4-6ft on the Surf Coast magnets, 6-8ft to the east.

Unfortunately winds tomorrow will be fresh from the S-S/SE leaving no real quality options, with Friday seeing weaker E/SE winds through the morning. The chance of winds tending more E/NE through the morning now looks slim, with Saturday offering the best conditions as winds swing locally offshore and hold from the NE into the afternoon to the east ahead of a late afternoon S/SW change.

Swell wise, the W/SW groundswell will be on the ease, mixed in with a reinforcing SW groundswell generated by a tight but intense low forming well south of Western Australia today. The low looks to produce a fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds before weakening while tracking east-southeast and this should maintain 3-4ft sets for the dawny on Saturday (arriving late Friday) across the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east before easing through the day.

Sunday looks smaller and early variable winds will create clean conditions, while a low moving across the region may bring freshening NE winds into the afternoon.

The new SW groundswell due into the afternoon has been downgraded unfortunately but this is good news for the exposed beaches. The strong low that was forecast to form while tracking south-east is now looking to develop later and be weaker.

It should still provide a kick in size to 2-3ft through the afternoon on the Surf Coast with 4-5ft waves to the east with those NE winds, easing Monday with tricky N tending W/NW and then SW winds as the low moves east across us.

This low is expected to deepen off the East Coast bringing poor SE winds to us and some localised windswell, but we’ll take a closer look at this on Friday.