Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 17th July)

Best Days: Friday both coasts, Saturday morning Surf Coast

Recap

Great waves across the Surf Coast Saturday with a new inconsistent W/SW groundswell to 3-4ft at most spots with all day offshores. The Mornington Peninsula was large and bumpy with 6ft+ sets.

The swell eased back into Sunday to a smaller 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula with good winds for both regions, persisting into the afternoon as the swell continued to fade.

This morning small 1-2ft leftovers were seen on the Surf Coast with inconsistent 2-3ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula but the strong N'ly offshore was creating a few problems.

This week and weekend (Jul 18 - 23)

A tricky pulse of W'ly swell is due tomorrow, produced by a deepening mid-latitude south-west of WA over the weekend.

It was only through this lows initial stages that we saw a fetch of W/SW gales through our swell window before it moved too far north and out of our swell window.

Since then the low has been moving slowly east through the Bight and will continue to meander east before crossing us early Wednesday.

What we'll see is an inconsistent pulse of acute W'ly swell tomorrow morning, coming in at an inconsistent 2ft at magnets on the Surf Coast with 4ft waves to the east, easing through the afternoon.

Unfortunately fresh and gusty N/NW tending NW winds won't really favour exposed beaches, with small clean runners on the Surf Coast.

The change Wednesday will be strong, with a fetch of S/SW winds slammed into our coasts, kicking up a stormy S/SW windswell.

A secondary stronger polar front will project up and into us through Wednesday and Thursday, generating a secondary larger S/SW groundswell for Thursday.

Wednesday should see stormy waves building to 3-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula, while the groundswell Thursday looks stronger to 4-6ft and 6-8ft respectively but with strong SW tending S/SW winds.

Friday is the day to surf though as a ridge of high pressure quickly moves in from the west, swinging winds offshore from the N'th with easing sets from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Saturday should be smaller and N/NW winds will again not really favour exposed beaches.

Continued mid-latitude storm activity will produce funky W'ly swells for Sunday and early next week with winds from the north-west quadrant which isn't ideal, as the Surf Coast will be clean but small. More on this Wednesday.