Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 24th April)

Best Days: Surf Coast Tuesday morning, possibly early Thursday Torquay region, Friday Surf Coast, Sunday Surf Coast

Recap

Great conditions across both coasts Saturday with a fun W/SW groundswell to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Sunday was a little bit smaller with a reinforcing W/SW swell not being as favourable for the Surf Coast and early W/SW breezes created slightly bumpy conditions.

A much better W/SW groundswell arrived through the day, although conditions deteriorated with a SW change.

Today was the pick as the swell eased back from the 3ft range at magnets on the Surf Coast with variable offshore winds, and a large 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

This week (Apr 25 - 28)

Later yesterday's and today's W/SW groundswell will continue to ease off into tomorrow, and a light W/NW breeze will favour the Surf Coast over the Mornington Peninsula before a shallow change pushes through.

Swell magnets should ease from 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Surf Coast (2ft most spots), with 3-4ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Into Wednesday we'll see a cold front push up and into us kicking up a low quality S/SW windswell along with strong SW tending S/SW winds. There's a chance for an early W'ly breeze at dawn on the Surf Coast, but the swell won't be too impressive, so it's not worth chasing.

The frontal system is expected to weaken into early Thursday and with this we might see a light W/NW'ly developing around Torquay early.

A mix of S/SW windswell and SW groundswell should provide plenty of surf, but the quality will be lacking with the swells overlapping and coming in close-spaced. The models are also combining these two swells incorrectly, and we're only due to to see easing 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast, 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

A weak mid-latitude front tracking in from the west mid-week looks to produce a small reinforcing W/SW swell for Friday morning, with easing 2-3ft sets at swell magnets on the Surf Coast. Conditions are looking good most of the day west of Melbourne with a moderate to fresh W/NW'ly holding into the afternoon.

This weekend onwards (Apr 29 onwards)

We've got a bit of swell due over the weekend, firstly some mid-period energy out of the W/SW for Saturday, followed by some stronger S/SW groundswell later in the day and Sunday morning.

The W/SW energy looks to come in around 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula Saturday and with morning W/NW breezes ahead of a late morning W/SW-SW change.

The long-period groundswell will be generated from today through Wednesday by a vigorous polar frontal progression developing in the southern Indian Ocean.

A distant fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds will be produced through our far swell window, with better storm-force W/NW winds developing as the progression dips south-east along the polar shelf through our southern swell window, well south of WA.

The swell from this system will be inconsistent but long in period, arriving later Saturday and peaking Sunday morning to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast (odd bigger one at magnets) and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions are looking excellent for the Surf Coast with a light NW offshore breeze, tending more W'ly into the afternoon.

Into next week there's plenty more swell on the cards, but a strong cold front and onshore change Sunday evening looks to create poor winds until late week. More on this Wednesday.