Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small flush of short range S swell Thurs, easing Fri
• Tiny on Sat, small NE windswell Sun with N/NE winds both days
• Small NE windswell peaks Mon
• Flukey S groundswell pulse Mon at S facing beaches and magnets
• Another trough Tues next week brings a spike in short range S-S/SE swell, easing Wed
• Nothing concrete from mid next week, still quiet in the tropics and Southern swell windows

Recap

No surf to speak of with tiny 1-1.5ft waves yesterday, similar today with light morning winds, tending N/NE today and expected to freshen to mod paces for the first day of 2025. We may see some minor NE windswell build in the a’noon.

Nice sunrise to bring in the New Year- very little surf

This week (Jan1-Jan 3)

No great change to the outlook with very weak pressure gradients across the Coral and Tasman Seas. Slack winds extend right across the South Pacific with only weak frontal activity south of the continent. In short, a very lacklustre surf outlook ahead. 

In the short run we’ll see o/night N’ly winds at mod paces with a trough bringing a S’ly change in the early hours of the morning (likely in across Sydney by dawn). There may be a brief window of NE windswell at S’ly protected locations before it rapidly dies away with some short range S swell in the a’noon to 2 occ. 3ft. Low quality, short period stuff so keep expectations pegged very low.

High pressure moves rapidly into the Tasman on Fri, moving NE and weakening so well see early light SW-S winds tend S/SE before clocking around E through NE in the a’noon. Short range S to S/SE swell to 2ft looks to hold a rideable wave for the keen but don’t expect too much in the way of quality. 

This weekend (Jan4-5)

Tiny surf Sat with light winds early tending to mod/fresh N/NE breezes in the a’noon. Most beaches will be 1-1.5ft tops through the day with a minor NE windswell offering a few little sidewinders in the a’noon. 

Sun looks like more energy, especially south of Sydney, as NE windswell builds in response to a strengthening N/NE flow as high pressure and an approaching trough combine. Expect NE windswell build to 2-3ft during the day under a mod/fresh N/NE flow. Nothing amazing but surfable.

Next week (Jan 6 onwards)

We should see a further strengthening in the proximate fetch of N/NE winds along the southern NSW coastline as a trough hovers off the Gippsland Coast. Given that outcome, NE windswell should build a notch into Mon with size to 3ft under a mod/fresh N tending NE flow. 

There is a deep low tracking underneath the continent later this week (Fri) with some long period S’ly swell wrap expected Mon. Most places won’t see much but S magnets and reefs that can magnify S swells in the 15-16 second period band could see some 3 occ. 4ft sets with outliers possible. 

Tricky outlook for the trough with EC suggesting the trough moves N into Tues, bringing a S tending S/SE change and rapidly easing NE windswell and a small flush of short range S/SE swell. 

GFS is holding the trough southwards with continuing N’ly winds and workable NE windswells. 

We’ll update on Fri but there should be a minor, workable wave in either scenario, albeit very uninspiring.

Models become divergent from mid next week with EC suggesting high pressure moving into the Tasman and a small trough sitting off the leading edge generating small SE swells for Thurs and possibly Fri.

GFS is holding a small trough off low pressure off the Gippsland coast with N’ly winds Thurs, and a weak change Fri. 

Let’s see how it looks on Fri.

Nothing concrete on the radar longer term. Models are still hinting at low pressure in the South Pacific but model skill has been low so far this summer. A trough in the Tasman may direct a SE flow late next week but with so much model divergence confidence is very low.

Nothing really short term, get the grovel game happening.

We’ll come back Fri and hope there is some better news on the longer term horizon.

Seeya then.