The Tasman Sea, by contrast, is looking very mellow with a weak high pressure cell over NSW and a few decaying remnants of the long lasting Tasman Low sitting near New Zealand. Those weak pressure gradients across our main S-SE swell window will lead to a very quiet week swell wise, with mostly offshore winds.
We've got a tricky period thanks to unfavourable (for swell production) back to back meandering lows in the Bight.
Make the most of the swell spike on the weekend.
The coming period is tricky with building swells with onshore winds, cleaner away from the peaks but with no real strength in the energy.
As mentioned on Wed, we should see the extended flat spell broken next week, not in spectacular fashion, but with some small, rideable days. A trough may develop in the Coral Sea, focussing E/NE winds into it, and supplying CQ with some small rideable surf.
Winds may shift more N’ly through Bass Strait and up towards the South Coast later Thurs into Fri, bringing a spike in NE windswell.
The current swell will ease on the weekend with a fun swell for the South Coast, while next week is very dynamic with a large, local swell due.
The system reaches peak strength over the weekend in Tongan longitudes, with a long fetch of E'ly winds, but it is moving away as it deepens, which limits swell growth.
S’lies in the a’noon are expected to exceed 20 knots with gusts possible to 30 knots so the a’noon will be windy and mostly blown out. Short period S swell will rise as a result but keep expectations low.
The weekend looks mixed with Sunday performing best, while next week is tricky with some new west swell due but to what size is unknown right now.
