Southern Tasmanian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday January 22nd)

Best Days: Tomorrow, Friday morning, Saturday morning, Sunday morning, Monday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small to moderate sized SW swell tomorrow AM, easing, further Fri
• Light N/NW winds ahead of weak sea breezes tomorrow, fresh N/NW tending W/NW then W/SW Fri
• Small to moderate sized W/SW swell building Sat PM, with a secondary stronger swell Sun, easing Mon
• N/NW winds Sat ahead of a mid-afternoon S/SW change
• Variable SW winds Sun ahead of sea breezes
• Strong N/NE tending N/NW then W winds Mon
• Mod-large W/SW groundswell likely early next week

Recap

There’s been no surf of note with strong southerly winds kicking in through today as a trough clips us.

This week and weekend (Jan 23 - 26)

Today’s change is linked to a broad frontal system moving under us, with a good fetch of strong SW winds moving through our south-western swell window.

This will produce a fun spike of mid-period SW swell for tomorrow morning, with it building later today.

Clifton should offer 2ft+ waves, easing through the day and then down further from 1-2ft on Friday.

Conditions look great tomorrow morning with a light N/NW offshore ahead of relatively weak sea breezes, then fresh N/NW tending W/NW then W/SW winds on Friday.

The change will be linked to the first of a couple of frontal systems moving in from the west, with the first pushing in from the Heard Island region today. W/NW-W gales will weaken on approach to us over the coming days, with the frontal system passing under us Friday in a much weakened form.

Behind this a slightly stronger front looks to generate westerly gales that will maintain their strength while passing under us Saturday.

Dual pulses of W/SW swell are due from these systems, the first for Saturday afternoon with a stronger pulse for Sunday.

Saturday’s should reach 2ft+ with Sunday’s reaching more 2-3ft, easing from 2ft Monday.

Local winds on the weekend look good Saturday, offshore ahead of an early-mid afternoon S/SW change with Sunday seeing more variable winds (possibly light SW) ahead of sea breezes.

Monday will be tricky as the swell eases under strong N/NE tending N/NW winds ahead of a stronger W’ly change.

The afternoon change will be linked to a burgeoning low firing up to our south-west early next week, with it due to generate what at this stage looks to be a moderate to large W/SW groundswell for Tuesday/Wednesday next week. More on this Friday.