Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 17th October)

Best Days: No great days. There'll be waves on offer but nothing worth rearranging your diary for.

Recap: Solid but easing S'ly swell Thursday with offshore winds ahead of a NE sea breeze, early sets to 5-6ft at south facing beaches before fading during the day. Small leftovers today with a S'ly change arriving around dawn across most regions (a little earlier down south, a little later across the Hunter). A somewhat whimpering finish to what's been a pretty dynamic week of waves in southern NSW.

This weekend (Oct 18-19)

We've got a pretty ordinary weekend of waves ahead, mainly consisting of residual southerly energy on Saturday and a tiny trade swell pushing through on Sunday. 

Saturday's conditions look a little average - today's southerly flow will tend south-east overnight and ease in the early hours of the morning to become light and variable close to dawn but there's still likely to be a few lumps and bumps on the surface. South facing beaches will have the most size (2ft sets, a smidge bigger in the Hunter) but on the whole you'll need to be pretty keen. North-east sea breezes are expected into the afternoon.

Sunday will see smaller surf and early N/NW winds which are expected to swing N'ly by mid-morning and freshen considerably through the afternoon from the NE. In addition to a tiny underlying trade swell and some residual south swell, we may see a small low quality windswell across exposed beaches in the afternoon but I wouldn't hold your breath for anything worthwhile.

If you're desperate for a Sunday paddle, aim for a swell magnet early morning and keep your expectations very low.

Long term (Oct 20 onwards)

A gusty southerly change is due to reach Sydney within a few hours of dawn Monday morning. Fresh NE winds ahead of the change overnight on Sunday should be sufficient enough to generate a small NE windwell for the southern Hunter, Sydney and Illawarra coasts but I'd be surprised if we saw much more than about 2ft at exposed NE facing beaches (with tiny conditions at south facing beaches). Expect tiny surf in the northern Hunter, as it doesn't usually pick up short range NE swells very well.

Conversely, the southerly change should generate a small windswell for south facing beaches throughout the day, but it'll be poor quality - perhaps 2-3ft+ on the sets into the afternoon but with a lot of bump and chop on top.

The fetch trailing Monday's change is not expected to be very strong nor very well aligned within our swell window, so wave heights won't become very large through the middle of the week. Tuesday should see a better quality south swell fill into the coast, originating from the primary fetch rounding Tasmania, but wave heights will probably be restricted to an inconsistent 2-3ft at south facing beaches. A high pressure system over the region should create light variable winds ahead of NE sea breezes. This source will then fade through Wednesday.

Tuesday may also see a small, distant E/NE swell originating from an impressive fetch developing SE of Fiji at the moment (see chart below). The latest model guidance has pushed this fetch further east (i.e. away from the Australian coast) than previously forecast, and it's not very well aligned for southern NSW either. This means the resulting swell in our neck of the woods will be small and very inconsistent - possibly the odd 2ft set but probably not much more than that. This small infrequent swell should however persist through Wednesday before easing Thursday.

Otherwise, the rest of next week is still looking at a general coastal troughy pattern, with local fetches likely to contribute small short range energy for desperate surfers. I'll have more info on this in Monday's update.