Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday December 29th)

Best Days: Today, Sunday morning, Monday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized + SW swell building tomorrow with strong W/SW tending SW winds
• Swell easing slowly Sat with W/NW-NW tending W/SW then S/SE winds
• Smaller Mon with variable offshore winds, tending gusty S/SE late AM
• New mid-period SW swell Tue with light S/SE winds, freshening
• Plenty of swell Wed-Fri with onshore winds

Recap

Yesterday was poor and onshore with today coming in much cleaner with offshore winds and fun waves for bigger boards.

This weekend and next week (Dec 30 - Jan 5)

Today’s strengthening W/NW winds are ahead of a strong polar frontal progression, with it currently projecting towards the state while generating a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW-SW winds.

A moderate sized + mid-period swell is due to fill in tomorrow, building rapidly before peaking overnight and then easing on Sunday.

Building surf to 4-5ft is due through tomorrow across Clifton but with strong W/SW tending SW winds.

Sunday will be much cleaner with a W/NW-NW offshore and easing 4ft surf. Winds are due to go W/SW late morning ahead of S/SE sea breezes so surf before lunch.

Monday looks nice and clean again with smaller 2ft to occasionally 3ft sets with variable offshore winds ahead of a gusty S/SE change late morning.

Later in the day some new mid-period SW swell is expected, with a peak due into Tuesday morning.

The source is another polar frontal system swinging in from the north-west on the weekend, with a fetch of strong NW-W/NW winds due to generate a pulse of swell to 2ft+. Winds are still tricky for Tuesday and possibly lingering out of the S/SE though only light in the morning, stronger into the afternoon.

This onshore wind could persist through Wednesday owing to a trough sitting to our east, but we’ll review this Monday.

Longer term there’s plenty more surf due through the end of the week but with dicey winds that look to be onshore. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!