Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small SE-E/SE swell persists into Thurs with light winds (SW early) a possibility
• Easing swells from Fri with light E-E/NE winds
• Not much for the weekend with small swells and light/mod N-NE winds Sat, freshening on Sun
• Next week now looking small and weak with small NE swells likely
• We should see a S swell of some description from Thurs next week as front/low move into Tasman and may hang around- check back Fri for specifics
• More weak high pressure and mobile/transient troughs in Tasman continue pattern of small, weak surf

Recap

Tiny swells in the 1-2ft range yesterday before a S’ly whipped up some short range swell before dark. That increase has stabilised in the 3-4ft range today but conditions are very ordinary (mostly poor- let’s try and be optimistic) under a fresh/strong S/SE flow. There are some workable options at more sheltered breaks for the keen. 

Scrappy but surfable this morning

This week (Jan 8-10)

A small trough of low pressure has stalled off Seal Rocks with a SE infeed south of the trough expected to ease over the next 24 hrs and a light/variable flow north of the trough. Apart from this short-range feature, which is whipping up some local, short range swell for Central/Southern NSW pressure gradients in the Tasman and Coral Seas remain very weak. Easing swells through the rest of the week with not much on the radar until mid next week.

In the short run we’ll see the S/SE flow relax as the trough washes out, tending to light E/SE breezes in the a’noon. We’ll see continuing 3-4ft surf, easing a notch during the day. With short periods on offer, keep expectations low for quality. There will be rideable waves on offer.

Light winds continue into Fri with light morning winds (possible land breezes) tending to light/mod E-NE breezes in the a’noon. Surf will tend to small E’ly swells in the 2-3ft range with a few, fun peaky options across the beachies of mediocre quality.

This weekend (Jan 11-12)

 Weakening high pressure near the South Island and a broad inland low will see winds shift N-NE over the weekend, freshening through Sunday in particular.

No great size for Sat with a small grovel on hand from E/NE-NE windswells in the 2ft range. Conditions should be fair under light morning breezes tending to mod a’noon NE seabreezes.

Winds freshen from the N/NE on Sun with more small NE windswells in the 1-2ft range, offering a grovel for the keen. 

Next week (Jan 13 onwards)

Weak high pressure in the Tasman and a N-NE flow to start next week with a couple of days of tiny NE windswells on offer. A massive low pressure system sits on the other side of New Zealand but that won’t be of any succour for us. If it was in the Tasman, we’d be on for a 6-8ft swell.

Expect small 1-2ft NE windswell Mon, likely easing back to tiny through Tues and into Wed, although depending on the N’ly infeed into the approaching low we may see workable NE windswells during this period.

From mid-week we are likely to see a shift as the inland low gets absorbed into a frontal system and low moving from the Bight into Bass Strait (see below). That should see a SW-S change and S swells as frontal winds from that direction operate on Tasman seas. Still some model divergence with EC suggesting a stronger low moving into the Tasman with a larger S swell from Thurs next week.

GFS suggests a more standard frontal system which moves across the Tasman and generates a spike in S swell Thurs, possibly hanging out in the Tasman as a broad low which may generate workable S swells into next weekend.

Too early to have any confidence in specifics, especially with weak high pressure support expected.

That pattern of weak high pressure and transient lows or troughs in the Tasman does look to continue in the medium term suggesting more small, weak surf as our summer of discontent drags on.