Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 7th January)

This week through next (Jan 8 - 17)

The surf is small across the region under variable winds, while a small mid-period S/SW swell should boost wave heights into this evening, peaking tomorrow morning.

The sources was a weak fetch of W/SW winds to the south-west of Western Australia and the swell performed well across Margaret River but only looks to reach an infrequent 4ft on the magnets before easing into the end of the week and bottoming out through Saturday.

With no other swell sources on the cards it’s worth penciling in a surf tomorrow morning.

The next increase in swell will be a small to moderate sized increase in mid-period S/SW energy later Sunday but more so Monday, produced by a short-lived low firing up to the south-west of Western Australia tomorrow.

The swell will then ease slowly into Tuesday, further Wednesday morning ahead of a large SW groundswell next Wednesday/Thursday.

This will be thanks to a strong, slow moving low firing up to the south-east of South Africa tomorrow, expanding while generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds while projecting east across Heard Island before weakening while projecting towards Western Australia.

A large, long-period SW groundswell is due with it building strongly Wednesday afternoon, peaking Thursday morning before easing into the end of the week.

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Maldives: The surf is minimal with small levels of mid-period SE swell due from this afternoon but more so tomorrow, increasing just a touch later in the week through the weekend.

This will be thanks to a weak but persistent fetch of SE trades in our medium-range swell window, south of Indonesia.

The strong low spawning off South Africa should produce a stronger pulse of S’ly groundswell for next Tuesday/Wednesday with moderate + sized sets due, peaking into the afternoon Tuesday before easing slowly Wednesday.

Local winds look variable in the south tending W/NW at times and E/NE-NE to the north tomorrow before tending variable to the south and freshening from the E-E/NE across northern and central locations from Thursday, persisting Friday and tending more NE into the weekend.

This will add some weak, additional NE windswell to the mix, persisting most of next week.

Eastern Indonesia:

Small mid-period S/SW swell later today and tomorrow morning to 4ft across the magnets, fading thereafter..

Small to moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell for Monday to 4-5ft across the magnets, easing Tuesday.

Large SW groundswell building later Wednesday, peaking Thursday morning to 6-8ft across exposed breaks, easing later week.

Variable winds, freshening a little from the W/SW-SW from the weekend, possibly stronger W-W/NW mid-late next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small mid-period S/SW swell tomorrow to 2-3ft.

Small W windswell for the coming days, fading into the weekend.

Small-moderate sized S’ly swell building Sunday, peaking Monday to 3-4ft across exposed breaks.

Large S/SW groundswell building Wednesday afternoon, peaking Thursday morning to 6ft to occasionally 8ft across exposed breaks.

Slowly freshening NW winds through this week, lighter to the north. Winds becoming more variable from the weekend.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Small SE swell to 2ft from today through the end of the week, possibly reaching 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the weekend and early next week.

Moderate + sized S’ly groundswell filling in next Tuesday, reaching 4-5ft across the southern atolls through the day, easing slowly Wednesday.

Small NE windswell from the weekend through next week.

Variable W/NW winds to the south tomorrow, E/NE-NE to the north, with fresher E/NE-E winds across central and northern locations from Thursday/Friday (variable to the south), tending more N/NE-NE on Sunday.

Possibly strengthening E/NE winds next week.