South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Feb 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E swells and light winds to close out Summer
• Tiny over the weekend
• Robust S swell favouring NENSW for size early next week, easing slowly into Wed/Thurs
• Should see rebuilding trade swells by mid next week

Recap

Small E swells and light winds have provided a few fun beachies since Mon, with some traces of S swell showing later Mon into Tues before easing. Nothing spectacular but definitely a few fun little waves around favouring kids and longboards.

Still a few fun beachies on the MNC

This week (Feb 28-Mar 1)

Weak high pressure (1022hPa) in Tasman is directing a modest onshore flow across the Eastern Seaboard. SE-E in the sub-tropics and NE across temperate NSW. Pressure gradients tighten over the short term as a cut-off low approaches from the Bight leading to an increased N-NE fetch off the Southern NSW Coast and increasing NE windswell through this region and extending down to Tasmania’s North East Coast.  Some quiet days then follow before a much more robust front and low enter the lower Tasman late in the weekend driving some sizey S swell up the coast.

In the short run we’ll see winds tending light/variable tomorrow then E through NE in the a’noon, with a stronger flow with increasing S’ly latitude. Only small waves on offer, more of the same weak, background E swell to 1 to occ. 2ft. 

Not much to end the week and Summer. Freshening N’ly winds across the region, stronger south of the Border. There should be window of clean conditions early if you are keen for a wave.  Small leftovers from the E and a weak blend of S and NE swells will struggle to get much over 1-1.5ft, so bring the appropriate equipment if you are desiring a slide. 

This weekend (Mar 2-3)

 Tiny, weak surf Sat morning with light winds so good for a snorkel or rockfish. Through the a’noon we’ll see light/mod NE winds kick up, stronger S of Yamba. Not much more than a 1ft or slightly bigger wave around.

Similar tiny surf Sun, with a stalled troughy area over the region bringing light/variable winds tending light NE in the a’noon. Great day for beginners to get out the back for the first time. We’ll see a strong frontal system and low show on maps through Sun but surf will stay tiny.

Next week (Mar 4 onwards)

Models are in good agreement now for strong gales to push NE of Tas as a deep low transits the Tasman Sun/Mon. By mid-Mon morning we’ll start to see signs of new S swell on the MNC, starting to show across the Northern Rivers after lunch with size building to 3-5ft on dark. Winds will be an issue as new high pressure moving E of Tasmania sets up a ridge with a S-SE flow. 

By Tues that flow will remain in the mod/fresh range, restricting surf to regional Points. Plenty of strong S swell Tues with sets to 4-6ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, 3-4ft in SEQLD. 

Still looking good for Wed with swell tending more S/SE from winds along the SW flank of the low as it approaches the South Island. Expect 4-5ft surf in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD with a few bigger sets possible and light SW’ly winds tending SE in the a’noon.

The rest of the week should see slowly easing swells with fun 3-4ft waves Thurs and smaller 2-3 surf Fri with winds from the SE-E/SE.

A tradewind band in the Coral Sea extends out into the South Pacific next week but wind speeds are only at moderate/fresh breeze strength so we’ll see small amounts of E’ly tradewind swell building in on top of the S swell later Thurs into Fri and across the weekend. We’ll see how it looks on Fri but pencil in 2-3ft surf from Fri into next weekend.

Frontal activity looks to be steered away by the high pressure belt so any S swells will be small and flukey.

The tropics is still bubbling away with a large area of low pressure along the monsoon trough between PNG and the Solomon’s worthy of monitoring for any signs of development through the medium term.

In short, nothing too exciting on the radar apart from the upcoming S swell so best bet is to saddle up for this event, even if winds might be a bit tricky.

Check back Fri for the latest.