Complex low followed by series of S swells

James KC

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 5th April)

Best Days: Wednesday for SE QLD, Thursday for NSW. 

Outlook:

  • E swell to peak over the coming days, SE QLD today/tomorrow, N NSW and Mid N Coast Wednesday/Thursday
  • Pick of conditions will be once winds go S and then offshore a day or two after the swell peaks
  • Lighter winds Friday with SE swell from western flank of low
  • Series of fronts delivering S swell over the weekend and into the new week

Recap

Well it wasn’t a beautiful Easter long weekend but there was plenty of swell to be had. Winds were out of the E/SE for the most of it meaning there were only few spots that could really handle the wind and from all reports those spots were crowded to say the least. 

The swell will peak for the Sunshine Coast today but winds will remain out of the E/SE for while longer. 

This week

The tropical low off the coast has been downgraded but it hasn’t really stopped the onshore winds from making a mess of things out there. 

The swell will peak for the Sunshine Coast today, tomorrow and into Wednesday for the Gold Coast, Wednesday for N NSW and late Wednesday for the Mid N Coast. It’ll peak around that 4-6ft mark for SE QLD and N NSW and more like 5-6ft for the Mid N Coast as the low intensfies before heading east. One final pulse will occur on Thursday providing 4-5ft waves for the Mid N Coast. All peaks in the swell will be out of the E before swinging around to the E/SE the day after as the low shifts south of your region. 

The peak of the swell won’t be the best day of waves though with a day or two after looking better as the low shifts further S, creating better winds and conditions. 

For SE QLD Wednesday is looking like the pick as the low shifts to the south allowing winds to finally go south, opening up better conditions for more locations. 

For N NSW and the Mid N Coast Thursday morning looks the pick with the swell hanging in there, still up around 3-4ft for Mid N Coast, but winds finally having an offshore component, out of the SW. 

By Friday, as the low moves further away from the coast winds will finally become light and out of the NW meaning there’ll be better conditions and you can finally get out of that protected southern corner. The swell will be more out of the SE with the western flank of the low generating a 2-3ft SE swell. Open beaches will be clean and picking up most of the swell so it should be a nice day of waves.

The weekend and next week

Saturday morning will be a moment of calm for most of the region as a high keeps conditions nice but it will be the smallest day of the week. 

A cold front will pass Tassie on Friday and push the low further out to sea away from our coast on Saturday. A trough associated with it could create a short lived S change for the Mid N Coast Saturday morning but there shouldn’t be much in it. 

On Saturday, a S swell from the front further south will push up into the Mid N Coast and then N NSW later in the evening, reaching 3-5ft and lingering into Sunday.  SE QLD will see this S pulse on Sunday but it will be smaller, more like 2-3ft, slightly bigger at S swell magnets. 

Another stronger front will pass Tassie on Saturday. This will bring a stronger S change and a larger swell. At this stage it looks like it’ll peak around the 4-6ft mark for the Mid N Coast and N NSW on Monday. It will reach SE QLD late on Monday into Tuesday but it’ll be smaller as the S swell struggles to wrap in. It’ll be more like 3ft, a touch bigger at the S swell magnets. 

The S swell will ease on Tuesday into Wednesday with smaller conditions from Thursday onwards. Tune in on Wednesday for an update. 

Comments

James KC's picture
James KC's picture
James KC Monday, 5 Apr 2021 at 1:15pm

From earlier today, pumping but crowded

 

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Monday, 5 Apr 2021 at 3:14pm

some guy tried a switch barrel around 3:11 he almost made it out at Noosa

Troppo's picture
Troppo's picture
Troppo Monday, 5 Apr 2021 at 7:14pm

Check out how even the whitewash swell lines are on the inside...
So even and consistent.
I live on SC, couldn't bring myself to surf today. Drove around for an hour early this morning, ended up having a fun bodysurf at Mooloolaba instead.
But these crowds are maddening.
You watch the cameras for a while and maybe talk yourself into having a go, but after a few hours in the lineup, reality sets in!!
Noosa indeed has epic waves. First point can be absolute perfection. But the flotsam and jetsam out there is next level.

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW Monday, 5 Apr 2021 at 11:15pm

Agreed. I’ve been watching it all weekend up there at Noosa and today I felt like it was as time to have a go.
Place really must have felt like paradise back in the day.

PeteWebb's picture
PeteWebb's picture
PeteWebb Tuesday, 6 Apr 2021 at 1:10pm

It sure was SDW...now it's a zoo full of rabid dogs.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 6 Apr 2021 at 2:43pm

Grandad had a landrover permanently living north of the river in the 1950s to go fish DI with his mates. I can't imagine how good that would have been for a surfer. Uncle bodysurfed Mooloolaba to double head+ in the 1940s...

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango Tuesday, 6 Apr 2021 at 2:51pm

I've seen more waves unridden than ridden on the feed. Must be Kooks RDO or something.

I love watching those lines reeling. Dunno how you couldn't not have a crack at it.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Tuesday, 6 Apr 2021 at 2:56pm

6/10 all day?

1/10 dog shit 99% of the SC
3/10 slightly less dog shit Bluff / injury inducing Cheese shoreys
7/10 Noosa has actual waves

That's a 3.666666666666667 average.

nick.minor's picture
nick.minor's picture
nick.minor Tuesday, 6 Apr 2021 at 3:20pm

I got a few. Wasn't really that bad crowd wise. Bit of sweep helps. As well as spending a few years in the area; both with getting a park and getting waves.

dannyp's picture
dannyp's picture
dannyp Tuesday, 6 Apr 2021 at 6:11pm

I concur nick. There were less than 10 out at my local point... plenty of water moving around keeping the numbers down. Got more than my fair share. Having the right equipment helps too. There were a lot of guys out struggling on sub 6’ boards... not that it was huge but having some foam to move you around the lineup was a massive bonus. Wind swung southerly just before lunch, cleaned it up a bit.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 6 Apr 2021 at 2:55pm

I've been surfing the equal ,most crowded wave in the world - The Pass- all summer/autumn.

If you can get your mindselt around each individual surf being nothing more than a flash in the phenomenal world, the wave count slowly accrues over time.

And when a single wave can be from the outside rock to Clarkes- 7-800m.
It don't take many.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 6 Apr 2021 at 3:16pm

That’s a sad reflection on modern surfing. Good for you putting a positive spin on it . Shame it’s necessary. Surfing isn’t meant to need boosterism.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 6 Apr 2021 at 3:24pm

Didn't surf it for over a decade because of the crowd then when my kids wanted to surf it's just so damn dreamy I started again.

also got really good quality surf a few weekends ago with no-one.

One day I'll go inland and farm goats, for now, I'll keep surfing.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 6 Apr 2021 at 3:40pm

Don’t ever tell me if you give it all away. That’d be even worse.

Not the most unfortunate thing to have a world class break in your pocket.

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Tuesday, 6 Apr 2021 at 8:23pm

Goats...that's interesting. Friends of mine in Maleny have started to add goats to their already substantial cattle holdings. And loving having them round. Always thought goats were a Pacific island thing. What are they for for you FR? Milk, cheese, meat, pets/part of the family?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 7:02am

They are nice animals, very smart. Very affectionate.
Mostly weed control.
Milking is on the agenda, but then they need to be impregnated.

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 10:47am

They are affectionate aren't they, especially the young ones. Almost like puppies. Nice mate. I reckon if you branded it right: "Locally reared, organic goats cheese from the northern rivers" would sell to Byron crew for squillions per keg.

Wyre's picture
Wyre's picture
Wyre Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 1:24pm

Just looked at the Pass cam, it looks fast and furious! Great looking sets. Saw one surfer get horrendously thrown over the falls and the next one shacked out of their mind. I’m getting a little excited that I’m currently on the mid north coast. Might find something...

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 3:01pm

it's pumping. just did 3 hrs there.

bring paddle arms.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 3:11pm

Been watching all day, some heaving barrels!

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 4:26pm

so hectic.

Tristan Goose's picture
Tristan Goose's picture
Tristan Goose Tuesday, 6 Apr 2021 at 4:23pm

Just found a really fun looking wave on the sc with only two people on it, shame that I gotta go to work haha

bruzzz's picture
bruzzz's picture
bruzzz Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 6:09am

Was about to paddle out at my local but noticed the large amount of logs and sh*t being washed out from the ocean - not worth the risk

spudsurf's picture
spudsurf's picture
spudsurf Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 12:39pm

James, any idea when the Kings surfcam will be back up?

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 7 Apr 2021 at 1:51pm

Been watching the camera(s) of Kirra for the last hour. I just cant bring myself to sit in that sweep with 100s of hungry tube pigs. Waves are pumping though.