South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 16th January)

Best Days: Thurs AM: make the most of the last portion of this extended E'ly swell across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. Every other morning should see clean conditions (north from Yamba) with small peaky E'ly surf. 

Recap: Tuesday was fantastic across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW with peaky E’ly swells rebuilding back up to 3-4ft, and winds remained light offshore through the morning, swinging into a weak sea breeze. Surf size held around this range today but the sets were less consistent, and although conditions were excellent across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW early morning, winds swung N’ly and then NE earlier than expected (mid-late morning), becoming stronger into the afternoon than model guidance (or in fact these FC notes) anticipated - it was more a classic synoptic sea breeze than the erratic troughy regimes seen in recent weeks. As such this afternoon as been pretty bumpy, with only protected northern corners offering workable options. South from Coffs, N'ly winds have created problems in adition to smaller wave heights.

This week (Jan 17 - 18)

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Let me begin by ruling out anything worthwhile across the Mid North Coast for the next few days, thanks to persistent fresh N/NE winds. Only south facing beaches and northern corners will offer clean conditions, and they'll be small under the prevailing E'ly tending E/NE swells. 

Elsewhere from SE Qld through Far Northern NSW down to about Yamba, Thursday should be very similar to today, though with some northerly scarring across the lineup, and only a brief window of light winds before NE winds resume across the coast.

In fact, the dawn patrol may not be the best window of opportunity as it may not have properly cleaned up from lingering overnight cross-onshore winds. Early-mid-late morning is more likely to see the best conditions before winds perk up again just before lunchtime.

Wave heights should maintain today’s size into Thursday but it’ll become a little less consistent. To clarify: the long range E’ly swell from the E’ly dip should provide the same frequency of set waves, but the short range swell source (the ridge through the Coral Sea) has eased so we won’t see as much of this smaller swell train in the mix. As such, expect long breaks between sets. 

In any case, the long range E’ly swell will be on the way out throughout the day, so even with the less favourable afternoon wind scenario, we’ll also see smaller surf size as the day progresses. The morning will absolutely be the best time to surf. 

So, let’s peg size up to 3ft+ at exposed beaches on Thursday, though with very long breaks between waves. More often than not you’ll be picking up smaller 2ft sets. Size will ease throughout the day and should level out around an inconsistent 2ft+ for Friday at exposed beaches. Surf size will be smaller running down the points, though these locations won’t be great anyway, following today’s NE breeze and its anticipated resumption on Thursday.

As for Friday’s conditions, expect similar winds as per Friday - freshening N/NE throughout the day (strongest in the south) but with a window of light variable tending N’ly winds in the morning. 

This weekend (Jan 19 - 20)

Looks like an average weekend of small waves across most coasts. 

Saturday will be marred by fresh N’ly winds across the Mid North Coast, but they’ll tend light and variable on Sunday as a trough pushes up the Southern NSW Coast (on Saturday) and stalls just to the south. However there won’t be much swell around, just small residual energy in this region.

Across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, we’re looking at mainly light variable tending E’ly winds, and small peaky trade swells from a poorly redeveloping flow through the Coral Sea. Exposed beaches may pick up slow, 2ft+ sets (upper end of this more likely on the Sunny Coast, smaller south from the Gold Coast) but I’m really not expecting anything of any great importance.

Next week (Jan 21 onwards)

Still nothing major on the charts for next week, with a weak trough in the northern Tasman Sea not showing any major swell potential, and a series of Southern Ocean fronts not lining up particularly well within our swell window either. 

We’ll see a modest trade flow through the Coral Sea kick up 2-3ft E’ly swell for the Sunshine Coast early next week (smaller south from the Gold Coast) but it won’t be a patch on anything seen in recent days/weeks. 

See you Friday!