South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 31st October)

Best Days: No great days. 

Recap: We’ve seen persistent south swell across the coast over the last few days; Tuesday morning managed 3-5ft sets across south swell magnets south of Byron, but there wasn’t much in SE Qld (away from south facing beaches), due to the swell direction. Size eased into the afternoon but has pulsed again today with a fresh pulse of southerly swell, offering 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron (see images below, from Coffs Harbour this afternoon). Tuesday’s winds were light early with afternoon sea breezes, but today’s seen freshening northerlies that have caused problems almost everywhere that isn’t extremely well sheltered. 

Coffs Harbour this afternoon: in the first image, the bloke on the inside bank is a good size reference, as the second image is at the same zoom level

This week (Nov 1 - 2)

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We do have another smaller southerly swell on the way for Thursday afternoon and early Friday (actually, with longer swell periods), but unfortunately, strengthening northerly winds are really going to create some problems. 

Winds should remain light to moderate throughout SE Qld on Thursday, and we’ll see a brief period of lighter winds across the Mid North Coast through the morning, but into the afternoon they’ll strengthen, and Friday’s looking very gusty indeed - modelled wind speeds of 26kts by the afternoon which means gusts in the mid 30kt+ range. 

The incoming southerly swell isn’t expected to amount to much anyway, just a few stray 2ft+ sets at south swell magnets south of Byron, and almost nothing elsewhere. Thursday morning is probably your only chance for a wave, with easing, inconsistent leftovers from today - probably a similar size as per the expected afternoon swell; 2ft+ at south swell magnets south of Byron - whilst winds temporarily ease. 

Friday’s strengthening N’ly winds will generate some local windswell for Northern NSW (mainly south of Ballina) but it’s really not worth getting excited about. 

This weekend (Nov 3 - 4)

Friday’s gusty northerly winds will hold into Saturday, possibly with an early NW period and also with some peaky NE swell up to 2-3ft at NE swell magnets south from Ballina. It’s not worth rearranging your diary for, and there certainly won’t be anything worthwhile in SE Qld under this tiny swell/wind combo either.

As mentioned on Monday, later this week a broad trade flow will broaden and strengthen in the Coral Sea, generating some small E/NE swell for SE Qld coasts. Surf size is expected to build from 1-2ft to possibly 2-3ft across the Sunshine Coast during Saturday and holding into Sunday, perhaps a fraction smaller across the Gold and Tweed Coasts. There won't be much from this source pushing south from Ballina. 

Winds are modelled to be out of the north on Saturday though there’s still a chance there’ll be an early nor’wester through SE Qld. It won't be a notable swell source for Qld surfers but should provide some small peaky waves across those beaches offering protection from the wind. 

Elsewhere, and a deep Southern Ocean low and cold front will cross Tasmanian longitudes during Saturday, and although poorly aimed for our coast (see below), will still be a major system with a broad area of gale to storm force winds pushing into the lower Tasman Sea. 

Had this fetch been meridionally (north-south) aligned within the western Tasman Sea, we’d have been looking at 12-15ft+ surf at some exposed south facing coasts. But, swing the angle of this system progressively clockwise and watch the wave height estimation throttle back: to that end, our wave model is barely expecting any energy to reach Northern NSW at all on Sunday.

Actually, I think this is a major undercall. Yeah, the fetch is poorly aligned and travels quickly through the swell window. However, reliable south swell magnets - and it may end up being just a handful of them - should see a mid-late afternoon pulse of south swell in the 3-5ft range, with much smaller surf elsewhere and almost nothing across SE Qld (though, for the record, I’m expecting bigger surf from this system across Southern NSW). It's definitely going to be one of those flukey south swell events that will deliver way more misses than hits. But if you're in the right place at the right time, those hits will be hard, and heavy. 

In any case, it’s all about the timing, and based on present data we may not see much new energy through the morning, especially in the Far North.

The other issue we face on Sunday is a stalled trough off the Northern NSW coast, which is expected to direct S’ly through SE winds across some, if not all coasts. No major strength is expected in the wind, but it’ll be enough to bump up south facing beaches - and they may be the only beaches picking up the flukey south swell.

So, for now I really wouldn’t get too excited about the weekend’s surf options, but I’ll take a closer pass on Friday to see if things have swung in our favour. 

Next week (Nov 5th onwards)

Whatever south swell we see late Sunday should peak overnight and then ease steadily across Northern SNW through Monday. Elsewhere, it looks like northerly winds will resume for a few days through the start of next week. A strong front will enter the Tasman Sea mid-week and this appears to be our next major swell source.