South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 12th December)

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Best Days: Tues/Wed/Thurs: small trade swell in SE Qld. Surf early before the wind creates problems. Fri: small S'ly groundswell in Northern NSW with early light winds.

Recap: Both the small trade swell and southerly groundswell came in a little under budget over the weekend. SE Qld beaches didn’t reach much more than 2ft+, and south facing beaches in Northern NSW peaked around 4ft. The south swell is on the way out but we’re still seeing a continuation of trade swell across SE Qld today. 

This week (Dec 13th - 16th)

There’s a couple of interesting features on the charts but ultimately we’re not looking at any notable surf throughout the next four or five days.

The trades responsible for the current short range E/SE swell are expected to maintain strength but will slowly retreat eastwards away from the mainland from about mid-week onwards. The net result will be for a continuation of the current small regime in the short term, with an easing trend later in the week. 

Our models have 2ft surf on the Gold Coast and 3ft on the Sunshine Coast which is probably about right for the Gold Coast but a little on the high side for the Sunny Coast. This size range should persist into Wednesday with a slight easing from Thursday onwards. Expect the surf to be a little weak and tidally influenced.

As for local conditions, Tuesday should (finally) see an early light variable period across the Sunny Coast (it’s been absent over the last few days) and a similar trend is expected across the Gold Coast ahead of moderate easterlies throughout the day.

The rest of the week will see the synoptic wind around to the northern quadrant though each morning should see periods of light nor’westers.

Keep your expectations low and you’ll pick up a few peaky beachies.

Across Northern NSW, the current fading S’ly swell will much smaller on Tuesday. Freshening NNE winds throughout the day will render all but the most protected northern corners choppy.

Wednesday see will see these northerlies at full strength, generating a small windswell but otherwise not providing much value for surfers. The trade swell is unlikely to reach many locations south of Byron or Ballina so there won’t be much surf around.

On Thursday, a shallow trough is expected to push up the Southern NSW coast, stalling across the Lower Mid North Coast and bringing a period of light winds across remaining coasts to the north. We won’t see much surf from the fetch trailing the trough, but a small local increase is possible around the Lower Mid North Coast (though it’ll be wind affected). 

Otherwise, a long period S’ly swell is expected to push up across the Mid North Coast on Thursday afternoon, generated by an intense low and secondary front tracking under Tasmania early Wednesday morning. Although the low will display storm force winds, most of the fetch will be just outside our swell window (and quite zonal in structure) which means we’ll see only a small percentage of energy glance the coast.

In fact, despite wind strengths associated with the secondary front being weaker, they’ll be slightly better aligned in our swell window (see image below) and will contribute more useful groundswell. Most of this swell will reach the greater Northern NSW region through Friday, with inconsistent sets around 2-3ft+ at south swell magnets.

Unfortunately, northerly winds will resume throughout Friday but there should be a period of light NW winds in the morning. This appears to be the best window of opportunity all week for Northern NSW, but I’ll take a closer look on Wednesday.

This weekend (Dec 17th - 18th)

The weekend looks like it’ll be split in half. Freshening northerlies all day Saturday ahead of a trough moving up the coast that will bring fresh S/SE winds on Sunday.

Friday’s south swell will probably still be be quite present across south swell magnets in Northern NSW on Saturday morning (inconsistent 2-3ft+ sets) but it’s expected to ease throughout the day. Only the most protected northern corners will be surfable under these winds. 

I doubt we'll see much, if any southerly swell reaching the SE Qld region but with northerly winds on hand conditions won't be worthwhile anyway. 

Unfortunately, the freshening S/SE flow on Sunday will be localised, with no structure to the supporting ridge across the Tasman Sea. This suggests small, bumpy short period energy for Sunday at south facing beaches in Northern NSW, and very little elsewhere.

The parent low/front related to this swell isn’t very well consolidated on the current forecast charts so there’s an outside chance for an update over the coming days. Let’s see how this is looking on Wednesday. 

Next week (Dec 19th onwards)

As mentioned earlier, there’s an interesting tropical system expected to remain slow moving across the Fijian region all week. Strong trades across its southern flank will generally remain just north of the New Caledonian swell shadow, so its likely we’ll see only tiny levels of trade swell from this source. 

It’s not really until the weekend where the models suggest we’ll see the trough/low slowly track south-east of Fiji, with a better fetch forming in our far eastern swell window - albeit still partially shadowed. And unfortunately, a strong ridging high to the west will steer the primary fetch up into the Coral Sea - meaning we’d see only small levels of sideband energy - but the positives are that it’s forecast to remain slow moving. And sometimes this can (eventually) override the directional deficiencies. 

Anyway, this pattern probably won’t bring about any notable east swell until early mid-next week at the earliest, if it eventuates at all. Let's keep an eye on it over the rest of the week.