South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 7th December)

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Best Days: Fri: posisble v.late pulse of new S'ly swell for Lower Mid North Coast. Sat/Sun/Mon: strong S'ly swell for Northern NSW, good early winds. Sat PM/Sun/Mon/Tues: fun trade swell for SE Qld.

Recap: Plenty of intense thunderstorms but no waves of any consequence for the last few days. 

This week (Dec 8th - 9th)

Not much surf is expected for the next few days. 

With no major weather systems in any of our swell windows, surf size will remain small, sourced mainly from local fetches. 

Thursday’s looking tiny just about everywhere and early light winds under this troughy pattern will swing to the N/NE and freshen into the afternoon as a vigorous front approaches southern NSW. 

These northerlies may general a tiny windswell overnight and into the early hours of Friday but really we’re clutching at straws here. There’s no real need to bother with an early surf check on Friday morning, I can’t see there being any notable surf to start the day. The models have a minor E/NE swell related to some of the trade fetch that developed in associated with the passing Coral Sea Low a few days ago, but I just don’t think it’ll generate anything worthwhile in the surf department. 

In fact, most of Friday is looking very small across the majority of the region.

The one exception is the Mid North Coast, which should see a very late increase in new S’ly swell, originating from a vigorous front passing through eastern Bass Strait overnight Thursday. The models have slightly increased the strength of this system so the forecast has also been bumped up a little for the weekend (for Northern NSW), which is a good thing.

Interestingly though - our model isn’t picking up the leading edge of this new south swell (across the Lower Mid North Coast) until early Saturday morning, which I think is slightly erroneous. Whilst it will certainly be a late arrival on Friday, I think there’s a decent chance for south facing beaches south of Coffs (and maybe just from Port Mac south) to pick up late 3ft+ sets in the few hours before dark. Everywhere else will remain tiny and there’s a chance that early SW winds will swing moderate SE, but seeing that we’ve just endured a lengthy spell of tiny conditions, it’s worth keeping an eye out for this new swell very late in the day of you’re in the region.

Elsewhere, expect tiny surf to prevail all day.

This weekend (Dec 10th - 11th)

We’ve got a couple of swell sources for the weekend.

First up - SE Qld will see a small building trade swell, from a ridge that’s expected to strengthen through the Coral Sea. The models have slightly pulled back the wind strengths, and also shifted the ridge a little further north, so wave height potential has come down a bit but we should see 2-3ft+ sets across the Sunshine Coast by Sunday (smaller Saturday, especially early) and it’ll also be a little smaller across the Gold and Tweed Coasts (2ft+ by Sunday, also smaller early Saturday).

Winds will remain moderate to fresh E/SE, so most Sunshine Coast beaches will be messy; there’s a chance for an early SW breeze across the southern Goldy but without much size you’ll probably be better off hitting the exposed beaches for a bigger wave.

Across Northern NSW, we have a few days of south swell to look forward to. The front pushing through the lower Tasman Sea on Friday, and the parent low further to the south (SE of Tasmania) will kick up a solid south swell that should reach 4-5ft+ at south swell magnets south of Byron, probably peaking through very late Saturday - mainly across the Mid North Coast - and early Sunday morning (everywhere else).

Surf size will be smaller at beaches not directly open to the south, and the other positive new is that most regions will see early light variable winds and afternoon sea breezes. The Far North Coast (north from about Ballina) may see the outer fringes of the SE fetch throughout Saturday, so you’ll have to hunt around the semi-exposed points for some protection. There’s a moderate chance for an early SW breeze in this region too, though the swell will still be building at this time and will therefore be much smaller at these spots. 

Next week (Dec 12th onwards)

A secondary front pushing through the lower Tasman Sea on Sunday has been downgraded in the latest model runs, and also aligned less favourably through our swell window, which means smaller wave heights and a later arrival across the Northern NSW coast than what was suggested on Monday.

We’ll start the week with mainly easing swells across Northern NSW, and a small but steady trade swell across SE Qld. Wave heights should manage 2ft+ across the Gold and Tweed Coasts and 2-3ft across the Sunshine Coast, grading smaller as you head south from the Tweed Coast.

This size range should persist into Tuesday before easing on Wednesday. Winds will remain out of the eastern quadrant though there’s a chance we could see early light SW winds across the Gold Coast again (less chance across the Sunshine Coast).

In Northern NSW, we’ll see easing south swell from Sunday throughout Monday (3-4ft south facing beaches, easing to 2ft+ during the day) ahead of a small reinforcement through Tuesday in the 2ft+ range at south facing beaches. 

Otherwise there’s nothing else of interest to be confident in for the longer term period. The charts are showing another weekend ridge for the Coral Sea which could deliver a renewal of short range easterly swell for SE Qld but that’s simply overly-enthusiastic speculation at such long range.

See you Friday!