South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 2nd May)

Best Days: Small waves all week, with a fun mix of east and south swells due from later Thurs through Fri/Sat. 

Recap: Reasonably strong but easing E’ly swell all weekend. Light variable winds tending NE in the afternoons. Smaller surf this morning with mainly light variable winds. 

This week (May 3rd - 6th)

No major changes to the week’s forecast. 

The next couple of days will see mainly small swells across exposed beaches, being a minor long range east swell generated by a stationary, but distant fetch of trades north and north-east of New Zealand late last week.

Because of the large travel distance, and the relatively weak surface wind speeds, the swell will be sluggish and inconsistent - pulsey at times and very tidally dependent. So, keep your expectations pegged appropriately low.

Surf size will mainly hover in and around the 2ft range across most Northern NSW beaches, very occasionally 2-3ft if you’re lucky, but it’ll be smaller than this across most SE Qld beaches and also the Mid North Coast (1-2ft). 

Light variable winds and NE sea breezes are expected across Northern NSW on Tuesday, with freshening W/SW winds into Wednesday as a weak trough crosses the region. They should die out into the afternoon though, and we probably won’t see much wind strength in SE Qld due to a slack pressure gradient.

From Thursday and into Friday, we are expecting two, possibly three new swells to push through the region.

The first two will be very southerly in direction, originating from two seperate sources. The first southerly swell will be a short-range pulse, extending from a gale force fetch existing eastern Bass Strait on Tuesday and early Wednesday. This swell will barely glance south swell magnets across the Northern NSW coast with very infrequent sets, maybe a couple of feet at best into Thursday afternoon and very little elsewhere. 

The second south swell is also due to arrive later Thursday and will peak across Friday, probably pulsing throughout the weekend too. It’s the same energy expected to produce very large waves across Southern Australia on Wednesday, originating from an enormous Southern Ocean low pressure system that developed a few days ago South-west of Western Australia.

Peak swell periods associated with this event will be very high (look for Tp around 18-20 seconds at some buoys) however the swell’s source is in a very flukey part of our southern swell window so confidence is very low as to what we’ll see at the coast. As a minimum, it’ll be super inconsistent but I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the more reliable south swell magnets rake in occasional 3-4ft sets (don’t expect much, if anything north of the border though). But for the most part I am also expecting this southerly groundswell to largely bypass many parts of the Northern NSW coast - so keep your expectations low from this event.

The third swell due throughout Thursday and Friday is much more reliable, though it’ll start off slow and will take a day or two to get motoring. This swell will be out of the east, and though it probably won’t be in the water at dawn on Thursday, surf size will trend upwards throughout the day (the distant swell source will again result in very inconsistent set waves). 

This energy is being generated by a tropical depression currently deepening south-east of Fiji, and I’m very confident that we’re looking at a few days of super fun surf into the long term.

Initially Thursday should see a slightly upwards trend with 2ft to possibly 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches at most swell magnets by mid-late afternoon. A second, stronger round of this energy will then fill in from later Friday, peaking over the weekend in the 3-4ft range - so expect Friday to exhibit a continual but slow upwards trend into the 3ft+ range. Surf size maybe smaller early Friday morning, as it's hard to have much confidence ont he precise timings of long range easterly swells.

As for winds to finish the working week - again, a lack of a pressure gradient should result in light variable winds in most regions. So on the balance, Friday looks like a really nice day for waves at most open beaches with a peaky mix of east and (hopefully) south swells south of the border, and an otherwise fun if somewhat inconsistent east swell north of the border. 

So, I’d book in some flexi time if you can for Friday, as the second half of the weekend outlook is a little concerning - see below.

This weekend (May 7th - 8th)

Swell wise, the weekend forecast is very nice.

The fetch responsible for Friday’s east swell is expected to deepen mid-week (south of Fiji) and propagate slightly westward, which will juice it up quite nicely. In fact, it looks like this fetch will remain active all the way through until Saturday, possibly even Sunday - so we should see some form of east swell all the way through until Tuesday or Wednesday of the following week.

But back to the weekend outlook. The east swell is expected to plateau through Saturday with 3-4ft sets at most open beaches, easing just a smidge through Sunday. The aforementioned long range southerly swell will probably ease back in size but occasional 3ft sets at reliable south swell magnets can’t be ruled out.

Of more concern is a deepening coastal trough as a strong front approaches from the west. Saturday - at least the morning - looks like it’ll be mostly spared any damage with mainly light winds, but Sunday looks like delivering howling northerly winds.

So, if you are planning on surfing this weekend, booking in an early session on Saturday as anything from the afternoon onwards has a big question mark over it right now.

I’ll update accordingly on this in Wednesday’s notes. 

Next week (May 9th onwards)

Sunday’s strengthening northerlies may generate some local windswell but they will mainly signal the arrival of a quality autumn weather progression across the south-eastern corner of the country. Typically this results in freshening north-westerly tending south-west winds with each system, and a temporary spike in directional southerly swell for Northern NSW (and not much across SE Qld).

This pattern is expected to persist through much of the longer term as a series of mid-latitude lows sweep across the region, so it looks like we’ve got quite a dynamic forecast on tap for much of next week, probably holding right into next weekend too. The good news is that there’ll be all kinds of swells thrown our way - remember the weekend's east swell is expected to persist from Monday thru' Wednesday - and this should spice up the bank situation and allow for some variety in your weekly wave diet. 

See you Wednesday!