South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 13th April)

Best Days: Fun outer points in SE Qld Thurs PM/Fri/Sat. Good beachies this weekend. 

Recap: Tuesday was small and average in most regions with variable winds as a weak southerly change pushed across the coast. A new short range SE swell has been very slow to get started today but there are signs of an increase across exposed Northern NSW beaches, albeit wind affected. Surf size is still very small in SE Qld. Exposed south facing beaches south of Byron are also picking up occasional 3ft sets from a distant southerly groundswell but with the southerly breeze on it, conditions aren’t particularly flash.

This week (April 14th - 15th)

So, building trade swell is the main item on the menu for the next few days. 

In fact the models have significantly upgraded Thursday’s increase across SE Qld - somewhere around 3-4ft on the Gold Coast (and up to 5ft at south facing beaches) and 4-5ft on the Sunshine Coast - which I think they're overcooking. The models then have an easing trend back into Friday, but I still think it’ll be the other way around - I’m holding steady with my expectation for a peak later Friday. 

Right now we’re starting from a very small base, and with no major weather systems positioned in our eastern swell window over the last few days, any increase we do see will be locally generated. And sure, the ridge is expected to strengthen considerably - leading to 20-25kt SE winds across the coast - but the core fetch strength will be similar through the Southern Coral Sea. 

The main positive here (beside the fact that it’s going to generate some swell for SE Qld) is that the ridge will initially push towards the coast. This will slightly enhance swell production from what’s an otherwise unremarkable fetch. 

So, we should see a steady upwards trend all day Thursday, with Friday seeing another boost from a slightly stronger secondary fetch developing in the central northern Tasman Sea tonight (essentially, the back half of the ridge). Surf size should reach 2-3ft at most SE Qld and Northern NSW beaches and outer points by Thursday afternoon (it may be a little undersized at dawn), and exposed south facing locations in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld should pick up a couple of bigger sets at times in the 3-4ft range late afternoon.

Winds will be fresh out of the SE though so you’ll have to hunt around for some protection. Those locations picking up the most size will be quite bumpy.

On Friday we’ll see the wavelength draw out as the slightly longer period energy from the central/northern Tasman Sea pushes through, with wave heights probably around 3-4ft at open beaches, probably a little smaller running down the outer points (2-3ft). Exposed locations in Far Northern NSW and possibly some parts of SE Qld may see a few bigger sets at times throughout the afternoon, but again, with mainly fresh SE winds (lighter and more SW for a brief early period in a few locations, such as Coolangatta), the outer points will have the best waves. 

Friday’s winds should start to ease across the Mid North Coast as the ridge relaxes, so we should see a broader range of decent waves on off (south of about Yamba). In fact the afternoon should be pretty good across this region under a light variable flow. 

This weekend (April 16th - 17th)

No maior change for the weekend - we’re still on track for a fun couple of days of easing trade swells and mainly light winds. 

Saturday may see a lingering southerly flow about the Sunshine Coast through the morning, but for the most part we’re looking at light variable winds and sea breezes elsewhere. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday.

Surf size will be largest early Saturday morning (3-4ft sets at exposed beaches, smaller on the outer points) and it’ll trend very slowly down into Sunday (2-3ft open beaches) thanks to the source fetch retracting slowly away from the coast on Friday. It will however remain active just north of New Zealand so it’s unlikely that the open beaches will go flat, in fact we should see fun 2-3ft surf at reliable swell magnets for much of Sunday. 

Next week (April 18th onwards)

Still no major systems on the boil for next week, but we’ll see a steady supply of good surf from couple of sources. 

Several small fetches in our eastern swell window developing from late Friday through the weekend (one near Fiji, another new NZ) will maintain background east swell in the 2ft+ range on Monday and Tuesday. A broad developing ridge further SE from Fiji - possibly with a few small embedded depressions - should maintain small easterly swells through the second half of the week as well.

Otherwise, a strong transitory Southern Ocean low passing south of the Tasman Sea over the weekend will set up a small long period south swell that should supply fun waves to south facing beaches in Northern NSW, probably from about Monday onwards. No major size is likely froths source due to its poor alignment but sets in the 3ft range are quite likely through until about Wednesday.

Otherwise, the models are still hinting at broad scale instability through the Tasman Sea next week which still suggests we could see some swell potential crop up - but there’s nothing in the model guidance so we’re going to have to give it a few more days.