More of the same: large E'ly swells redeveloping Tuesday thru' next week
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 19th February)
Best Days: Lots of E'ly swell for the entire forecast period. Risks are NE winds Sat, then potentially too much size (!) for many breaks from Tues onwards. Perhaps that's a good problem to have? Otherwise, Sun/Mon look good for SE Qld outer points with a smaller mix of E'ly swell and SE trade swell.
Recap: Shame about the northerlies as there’s been heaps of easterly swell and a strong southerly pulse too. Thursday morning offered a period of light NW winds across most locations, and even this morning delivered light W/NW winds in a few locations (Sunshine Coast, Mid North Coast) but for the most part we’ve seen gusty N thru’ NE winds ruining the open beaches and points. As for swell, Thursday punched a little higher than forecast through the early morning with powerful albeit very inconsistent long range sets out of the east in the 5ft range, but for the most part we saw E’ly swell around the 4ft mark, and a S’ly swell that reached 4-6ft at south swell magnets south of Byron Bay.
This weekend (Feb 20th - 21st)
This weekend’s waves will be highly dependent on the winds.
A high pressure system building through the Tasman Sea is expected to drive a strong ridge across the Southern Qld coastline, but it looks like this won’t occur until Sunday.
As such, Saturday still remains at risk of freshening NE winds, mainly on the Mid North Coast. Elsewhere - i.e. Far Northern NSW and SE Qld - we’re looking at a moderate chance for early light winds that’ll pick up a little from the NE, and then swing more E’ly during the day.
A freshening SE airstream will then occupy all regions on Sunday, with the strongest winds located across the Sunshine Coast, easing slightly with increasing southerly latitude. Early morning has a chance for a period of light SW winds, but this will likely be confined to the Southern Gold Coast and the Northern NSW coast south of Ballina.
And surf? Model data suggests we’re going to see a continuation of easterly groundswell as per much of the last week, with a slight easing trend overall. Expect 3-4ft waves at open beaches on Saturday, easing to 2-3ft on Sunday.
Today’s strong southerly groundswell will also ease across the coast on Saturday, perhaps some 3ft+ sets at exposed northern ends in the early morning (mainly in the Far North) but steadily tapering off throughout the day. I don’t think there’ll be much left from this source on Sunday.
Lastly, the building ridge across the southern Coral Sea should increase short range SE swell throughout Sunday, with the Sunny Coast being the biggest beneficiary - set waves should approach 3ft+ at exposed northern ends by close of business (smaller earlier) though they will be wind affected, and it’ll be smaller across the points. 2-3ft+ surf is more likely across the Gold Coast’s open beaches, and then smaller size as you progress south of the border.
Regardless, with freshening SE winds on Sunday the best surf will be across the points, specifically the southern Gold Coast region.
Next week (Feb 22nd onwards)
I can’t recall the last time I saw a synoptic setup, the likes of what’s unfolding in our eastern swell window.
TC Winston has been a strong source of easterly swell since Tuesday and the model guidance suggests we’ve got at least another week of swell to come. That’s right - we could be looking at two weeks or more of easterly swell from a single cyclone.
That’s beyond impressive.
Even more - TC Winston is expected to retrograde through an ideal position in our swell window, at optimal speed for swell generation, anywhere between Cat 3 and 5 strength, for several days at least. The supporting ‘feeder’ ridge to Winstone’s south-east is the key driver here as it’ll ensure that the sea state is fully developed wherever the cyclone passes through. This accelerates the swell production cycle and significantly enhances swell heights, periods and the overall strength of the swell energy.
I’m not sure if it’s possible to break the surf forecast down into bite sized chunks right now, because we’re still a few days away from key aspects of TC Winston’s development - that is, what is does once it pushes close to (if not over the top of) Fiji.
The general consensus is that we’re looking at an extended run of large, long period E’ly swell from Tuesday through Sunday (such a lengthy, sizeable E'ly groundswell is almost unheard of in recent years).
Model guidance is suggesting surf size in and around the 4-6ft mark but I think it’ll push a little higher than this, more in the 6ft+ realm at times at exposed coasts, possibly 6-8ft at some of the region’s more reliable swell magnets. Obviously, points will be smaller overall but once we’re into this kind of size range, many broad swathes of the coast become unrideable, with only sheltered locations offering workable options.
Additionally we’re looking at a secondary pulse around Thursday - associated with Winston’s southerly track post-Fiji - with the possibility of a westerly recurve later next week. Based on the current model guidance, it’s quite likely that Thursday’s renewal could push up above 8ft+ at times. And the trailing edge of this pulse could easily hold wave heights in the 6ft to almost 8ft range through the following weekend if current model runs hold true.
The only damper is that TC Winston’s large distance from the mainland means that local winds will be guided by unrelated continental weather systems. And, therefore there’s a reasonable chance that several days throughout next week’s lengthy E’ly swell will be accompanied by northerlies.
Anyway, let’s see what the models are saying on Monday. Because right now it looks like we’re potentialy in the middle of one of the longest spells of large E’ly swell in a very long time. It’ll be interesting to see how the nearshore coastal environment responds.
Comments
Really worried about Fiji. Not only does TC look like it'll be Cat 4-5 with a hurricane-like diameter, but it'll also be moving very slowly in the vicinity for a few days. That's what does the most damage.
Thoughts for Fiji
Jesus, those outer islands are just gonna get flogged
I really want to know what happens on Elizabeth/Middleton reefs with these big long range swells.
6 to 8 feet?? With possible nor westers? Fuuuuuuck!!!!!!!!!!!! Fuuuuuuuck!!!!!!!! I might have to buy a ticket!!!!!! One of the east coasts classic reefs could be all time......
One step ahead of ya. Now where's my pocket sized jar of vasso?
Hey Sheep, I'm wondering if you and I are thinking of the same spot. Is this off an island? Wednesday is looking like it may have light winds, I think I might book an annual leave day. Wish you could PM people here
NW is no good for where I think you are thinking of
One more never hurts hahaha.
I'm worried that this is may be a prelude of what is to come. Scientific analysis has predicted for some time that anthropomorphic climate change will lead to fewer, but more intensive cyclones. Looks like they might be right.
Sweet get to wake up at three in the morning and drive the distance to Adelaide airport and then fly to Brisbane then onto Fiji with my wife and three kids just got told a plane can fly in a cat five cyclone but a fucke$ boat out to the islands won't go now just told Sika virus will be rampant cause of the cyclone but the airlines reckon were good to go.
Can't wait.
Fuck me this is not good for Fiji....................Cat 5..................
.
Wow. She's now a 5 heading pretty much straight for Suva and Nadi.
If u wanna ticket I've got a free won
Going by the airport met guys good to go,
Don't no what there looking at, but it looks bad to me but I've got trouble finding the sports section in the local paper.
Shit !! cat 5 not looking great for fiji at all. Why do cyclones have more off a chance to intensify at night?
I know a place where long-range large E swell with northerly winds will prosper. Bad news is so will many other SC punters. With 8ft predicted it will probably be even heavier than Jan 19. Cue; people who shouldn't be out there!
Just nearby will be just as good, if not better and probably 1%, if that, of the crowd... Just like Jan 19.
Don't know if this is better it worse. Models now indicate Winston will pass just north of Viti Levu but there's such a broad area of storm to hurricane force winds about its southern flank that'll still impact the island anyway.
Hey Ben, is the north movement going to dampen any swell potential. ?
I hope it's better news for Fiji going that side
Not yet. Still on track for some solid swell.
Impressive animation: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=182...
Fun Tweed beachies around lunchtime, winds were just below the threshold where they cause issues - so a few lumps but otherwise super fun peaky 3-4ft waves.
Poor Fijians :-(
https://www.windyty.com/
Has it finishing up at our door.
Wow.
Jesus. 360km/hr gusts. Hoping best for Fiji
Spare a thought http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3455448/Fiji-smashed-tropical-Cy...
That is a monster.
They should of called Gary G ,he's a monster.
Not even Gary wants to be associated with THAT much destruction.
thats just a bad, bad scene for everyone in Fiji, especially Viti Levu and the Mamanucas. Hope everyone stays as safe as possible.
TC Winston will long be remembered for all the wrong reasons.
Any news on Fiji? I've got a friend there she said they thought they eye passed close by about 1am, they were OK, everyone together on the floor of the main hall, people were snoring which sounds alright, that was posted on FB 4hrs ago, nothing since
Really feel for the people of Fiji. My heart and thoughts are with them.
2 mates run a hotel in Suva and the Coral Coast. Coral Coast was generally unharmed. Haven't heard the Suva one yet
One man's fun is another mans devastation.... Same deal last season with Vanuatu.. Pam wasn't it?
Can say goodbye to the banks at Snapper if the current forecast comes off next Saturday? Not what the Quik pro needs.
What do you see surfer1 ? All I see is a perfectly positioned system.
Udo - you are a riddle wrapped in an enigma.
I like to imagine you as seated at a large wrapping , mahogany table surrounded by cutting edge Apple monitors looking out at a view from your study not unlike that facing the Thunderbirds on their ocean front, cliff side home.
So many fingers in so many pies.
Contacts everywhere.
Laughing as us mortals go about our business.
If you were evil, you'd be the sort of fella that James Bond would be very interested in.
Whatever you're doing keep it up.
I'm a fan.
Bloody hell. There's some major model disagreement right now but GFS has TC Winston tracking awfully close to our region. Either way, the prospects of an extended E'ly swell hold strong.
That GFS scenario is a bit of an armageddon one.
I can't recall or find an analogue to Winston. Anyone ?
No, this TC is unprecedented!
If thats anything to go by looks like beach erosion to me.
What is the record for the longest-lived cyclone? Is Winston heading to the top of the charts, or is it already there?
That would be Hurricane/Typhoon John in the North Pacific basin.. 31 days!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tropical_cyclone_records
Could have made for some interesting surf on the islands
Christ, Joli Wison stayed on Namoutu when Winston hit......brave......? ..fuck that !
Yeah nuts, I would of bailed!!
How the swell period jumping this afternoon! Say's it will go from 8sec to 15sec with a slight increase in the size. I'm guessing that's a the new swell from Winston so tomorrow morning the goldie points will be stacked and a decent size, what does everyone think?
That's what I've had in the Forecaster Notes since last Wednesday.
Yip you were bang on Ben
Nickt check Winstons current location on Earthnull
Pretty pumped gotta be some tired arms with this swell be opportunities to get kegs finally
Free ride..... Kirra swell?? .......... Bahahaha..... Just stirring maaaaate ;)
No doubt about this one SD, if it doesn't get too big.
Same system we were talking about bro.... I did say it was gonna pump in my words "for ever, ever ,ever (echo)" lol..... But this is getting ridiculous..... Just checked the long range charts.... Not only does it look like sitting off NSW, but in the faaaar out distance, another long range smaller swell might be brewing..... I don't think I've witnessed anything quite like it.... People will be talking about this in 20 years.....
BTW, I'll do a donny and say "I know somewhere that'll be pumping"...... It's in Qld..... It handles 10 foot.... But it needs light winds due to being open to se wind..... And NO!!! It's not on an island.....
And Yes.... I mean proper 10 foot... Qld's premier semi secret premier big wave spot.. Those 2 or 3 friends here that know how to contact me, I might divulge, for a price ;)
Jumpin Pin Bar, Currumbin Alley, the two bombies out behind Fingle come to mind but you need some water craft for all three
Nahh mate.... Jumpinpin is off an island or 2 , Fingal is nsw... And no, not currumbin.... Wouldn't call it "semi secret"...... But nice try nicky boy ;)
So sad :(
Do you know what part of Fiji that is Craig?
Yeah, Koro, Lau, Taveuni and Rabi and parts of the Eastern and Northern Division.
Taveuni and Qamea are really beautiful parts of Fiji. If you ever get the chance, and want to try getting away from the usual name breaks off the main island, you could certainly do worse. Thoughts are with the Fijian people.
Oh man, can't even imagine what it's like in Fiji and parts. New Caledonia will be hoping it heads south as per predictions.
Latest model runs are nuts. I can't remember anything remotely like it. Could be as big as anything in decades.
And yeah, houses on the coast will be in for a beating, as well as all the banks. Can't fathom it, just reaches beyond the level of comprehension atm.
Will be watching intently
Bat, can you post a link to where you are tracking the latest models from?
Cheers NickT
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain®ion=swp&noofday...
It's a NZ Met Production, basically just doing what I think is the EC models output. I think sheepdog uses it also.
Click on one of the maps and it opens up a clickable time series over 240 hours.
Current run is the 1800 run (see forecast run date at top), which Ben advises is not as good as the 00 and 1200 runs, which I think use refreshed data each 12 hours. (Ben, Craig, is that right?)
Anything over 4 days out is highly speculative, I'm sure you know, too many variables especially when a cyclone's in the water, but what they are showing defies thinking about.
MetVuw uses GFS, like almost every other weather website, including Swellnet (except our charts go out to 380hrs)
https://www.swellnet.com/reports/australia/queensland/gold-coast/wams
Cheers Ben, handy to know when you guys are comparing forecasts.
Awesome thanks for that Bat
JTWC holding steady with the SW recurve. And an ETT.
Going to be very interesting to see what numbers Ben puts on it tonight.
I can't see much change from 12-15ft on current runs.
I'd be more thinking in the 10ft+ range at its peak.
Depends on the timing of any further reintensification, or even the size of the ETT.
If any of that happens when it's aimed at , and/or tracking straight towards us then it's potential is serious.
Yes totally!
I'm using TC Sose as an analogue which did produce 12-15ft surf at exposed spots, most notably Lennox and Currumbin.
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/tropical_cyclones/2000_2001/jtwc/t...
Might get to give the DS a run FR? :)
mate the 9 ft Brewer might get a run. getting out off the rocks is going to be the hard part.
Gentlemen wax up your 9'0s and polish your figs .....you have a few days to think about your age and fitness.....?
and for fuck sake buy a new legrope
Take care.
I hope it is good FR and you can get out (and in!!) safely.
Udo, no amount of polish will get my figs big enough to go out in that size these days. Age and fitness at that size is the issue, I'm under no illusions, but enjoy the stoke for those that do.
Interesting that Sose appeared from behind New Cal's swell shadow as an easing Cat 2 tending Cat 1, then went extra-tropical.
Stu uploaded these old synoptics in another thread.
Thats what I mean, Sose doesn't look as impressive as Winston.
And those charts don't really show the short-lived but significant recurve to the SW that Sose made.
There's some amazing shots of outside Currumbin from that swell around.
Was that when krispie kremes was surfed big ?
EDIT : nope KK was 2009
How did Sose compare to TC Wati (2006) on the Goldy?
On the north coast Wati had some beautiful big clean lines that I reckon would have been 10ft+
If current models hold true we could be looking at another two weeks of swell from TC Winston across some parts of the East Coast. TWO WEEKS!
That's in addition to the current week of swell it's already delivered. Plus the half a week of E'ly swell prior to that from TC Tatiana and the associated ridge through the Coral Sea.
And all of the swells before that too....
What a summer!
8 to 10 foot.. maybe the odd bigger bomb..
I have never seen freeride over call ( hope you are right).
I'm liking this thread more and more.
Latest GFS 00z has the extra-tropical system stopping just west of a line drawn south of New Cal. More EC scenario, so looks like a monster swell may be avoided.
8 to 10 foot..... The odd bigger one.... Might drop you a line craig..... Cheers....
I'm sticking with me 10ft+ :)
Going on gut.... I'm talking Qld btw..... As I always do.... Bathymetry isn't my strong point.... But the shelf does slow things down..
Oh, yeah I'm just talking exposed east facing coasts picking up the brunt of the swell, Northern NSW, Tweed, Straddie etc.
If Winston does continue as a cyclone all the way from west of Fiji to the east cost of Oz then it looks like it would only be the second time in the last 100 years a cyclone has followed that approximate path. BOM link below
http://www.qhatlas.com.au/sites/default/files/imagecache/Large/ause19062...
Not surprisingly, latest run has quite a different track, not getting so close to east coast, and perhaps more like Sose's track.
Yeah it's completely different
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11P_tracks_latest.png
Yeah as noted above, ps didn't know they did these, epic!!
Winston is pretty much back in the same spot he was 12 days ago !
Storm got as low as 915 hectopascals on Saturday with maximum wave heights of 13m.
Where's Southey.....someone needs to predict what its going to do....wind shear upper levels???? still looks a beast come Thursday.
Love reading all the updates, at this stage what is expected tomorrow on the Goldy??
pumping 4 foot tomorrow pumping 6 foot by dark and pumping for the next two weeks....is that enough of an update
New forecast here Matt:
https://www.swellnet.com/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-...
Mick, i think the latest gfs run is probably the closest.... Note the big southern storm below tassie friday, with a trough/front moving off the nsw coast.... It sort of interacts with winston... then the next southern storm under tassie on sunday drags what's left away...
But who the fuck knows, really lol
And then what was your theory..? A Chopes swell next?
Im heading north with me 9'0, can someone point me in the right direction???
Byron be your best bet offshore all weekend...but thats probably the wrong 9'0 eh goofy!
Haha maybe not Mick.
I heard freeride is opening his doors to any wandering Mexicans for the swell of the decade?
Sweet as I'm doing the run too. I was serious about his area being the best esp re winds. Im starting up Sunny coast then heading south...maybe see ya out randomly like at sunset.
No,no Mick. You don't understand. This is definitely a QLD swell event. Oh who cares... If it's as big as Ben's forecast then it ain't gonna be that crowded anywhere that picks up the full size. Everyone be careful, y'hear...