South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th January)

Best Days: Thurs: make the most of the final pulse of E'ly swell, and preferably in the morning before winds shift gusty NE into the afternoon (especially south of Byron). Fri/Sat/Sun: chance for some local N'ly windswell (erm, yes!) in the north, but with tricky winds. Certainly not worth working around though.

Recap: No appreciable change in size for the last few days. SE Qld has remained around the 2-3ft+ mark both days, with Northern NSW seeing size around 4ft. Wind have been early offshore tending onshore, but without any major strength. Certainly a few rungs below the weekend’s epic surf but still above average for any other time of year. 

The Pass looking strong this afternoon

This week (Jan 28th - 29th)

I’m still expecting another pulse of E’ly swell from ex-TC Victor. It built across New Zealand’s North Island late Monday and peaked early Tuesday (sets in the 8-10ft range), and was expected to reach our coast later this afternoon ahead of a peak on Thursday.

As yet the wave buoys have not recorded any significant new energy however to be honest I’m not really expecting much of an increase in the swell period, so it may be a little harder to detect this new swell compared to the earlier instalments from Victor.

Nevertheless, Thursday should see some solid albeit very inconsistent waves across the region, with sets occasionally reaching up to 4-5ft in Northern NSW, and 3-4ft across SE Qld (the upper end of this size range at exposed beaches and a few selected outer points, with smaller surf running down the various points). It’s worth nothing that our model guidance has a smaller surf height than this (and our Coffs Harbour forecast has a peak in the afternoon), however I think we’ll come in a little higher than the model data is suggesting, because the fetch was relatively stationary and there was still a reasonable amount of pre-existing sea state for the fetch to build upon. Just bear in mind the significant inconsistency of the sets though.

Local winds are going to cause problems though. Although some locations - mainly in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW - may see a light variable flow early morning, it is expected to freshen from the north-east throughout the day. I’m not especially confident that we’ll see unreal conditions early tomorrow in northern locations either, as today’s lingering onshore wind will probably persist all night - not at any great strength, but just enough to take the sheen off things. So, couple this in with a very inconsistent east swell and there’s a reasonable chance that tomorrow morning may disappoint at many locations, especially the points. But there’ll certainly be waves around the coast - just aim for an early session. 

On Friday, we’ll see rapidly easing swell from the east, perhaps some stray 3-4ft sets south of Byron, and 2-3ft north of the border first thing, but becoming smaller from this source throughout the day.

However, a complex inland trough is expected to cross the coast during the day, swinging a strengthening N’ly breeze around to a lighter NW in some regions. Due to the tricky nature of this system, it’s very hard to have confidence on where this might occur, but it’s generally assumed that southern locations (i.e. south from Yamba) have a greater chance of seeing this NW flow develop - and therefore an improvement in surface conditions - whilst northern locations (particularly SE Qld) may see periods of gusty northerlies persisting for much of the day. 

These northerly winds will also whip up a small short range windswell, biggest at north facing beaches north of Byron Bay by the afternoon (including SE Qld, mainly the southern Gold Coast) but finding a location that’ll benefit from this swell combo and the tricky wind outlook is quite difficult. I’ll update in the notes below if any more concrete information becomes available but for now it looks like you’ll be best off aiming for a northern corner to seek out the remaining E’ly swell before it disappears by the weekend.

This weekend (Jan 30th - 31st)

Still nothing of major interest for the weekend. There’ll be just a trickle of east swell leftover by Saturday, along with a more dominant short period N’ly windswell, biggest at north-facing beaches north of Byron. This local windswell will fluctuate both days as the local fetch ebbs and flows just off the coast; exposed spots could see set waves as high as 2-3ft but it’ll be mainly low quality stuff. 

Once again, the presence of this complex trough - probably well off the coast by Saturday - will cause winds to veer NW in some regions, likely in southern locations again (i.e. south of Yamba or Ballina). But without any notable swell on offer there’s not much to get excited about. We may also see these NW winds extend a little further north into SE Qld, but it’s worth bearing in mind that if this happens to any broad scale, it probably means the source of the N’ly flow will have also diminished, reducing the potential of the primary (short range N'ly) swell. 

So in short - if you’ve got something other than surfing to do this weekend, give it a nudge. It’s been a very generous month of waves so far anyway.

Next week (Feb 1st onwards)

Still lots of potential for the Tasman Sea next week but with nothing really showing on the charts. This trough system certainly has a few of the required ingredients to generate a new source of swell for our coasts but as yet they don’t appear to be lining up very well. Let’s see how the charts are shaping up on Friday.