South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 16th October)

Best Days: Most days should see fun trade swells, best in the mornings with light winds, although initially a little on the small size Saturday. E'ly swell peaking Tues, easing Wed with some decent size in SE Qld/Far Northern NSW, but also with a risk of N'ly winds. 

Recap: Plenty of waves across Northern NSW on Thursday, mainly in the south with an E/SE swell providing 3ft sets at exposed beaches. Surf size was much smaller north of Ballina but there were some small peaky waves from the east, with early light winds and sea breezes. Today we’ve seen smaller surf size in the south and a slight increase in the north, with 2ft+ sets across open beaches and early light winds at many locations. A further small increase is expected this afternoon though the trend at the buoys has been flat all day. There’s also a small south swell in the mix in Northern NSW but it’s smaller than the trade swell. 

This weekend (Friday 17th - Saturday 18th)

Southeast Qld: Should be some fun small trade swell around this weekend.

Surf size will initially remain a little small throughout early Saturday, around 2ft+ across the beaches and quite tidally affected with slightly smaller surf on the points, but we’re looking at a minor increase into the afternoon with 2-3ft sets more prevalent into Sunday.

This trade swell will have originated from a broad fetch in and around the Fijian region over the last few days, encompassing a Tasman high and a Tropical Depression north of Fiji (TD02F), keeping the fetch stationary just inside our swell window. 

Local winds should generally remain light and variable for the first three or four hours of the day but by mid morning the onshore pattern will start to kick in (E’ly Saturday, NE Sunday) - however it shouldn’t get much above 12-15kts tops. So, there should be workable waves all day, biggest and best on Sunday.

Northern NSW: No major changes to the weekend forecast. We’re looking at a similar swell source as per the northern regions, however wave heights will be smaller south of about Ballina.

If you’re in the Far North there should be some good beach breaks but it will be noticeably smaller and weaker in the south. Early mornings will offer the best conditions under light variable winds before sea breezes develop in the afternoon.

Next week (Monday 19th onwards)

Looks like the Tropical Depression north of Fiji (which I’ve been discussing since last Wednesday) may actually intensify into an early season Tropical Cyclone tomorrow (read this quick article for more).

However, the depression/cyclone won’t directly generate any new swell for us, mainly due to its small size and its position behind the swell shadow of Vanuatu and New Caledonia.

That being said, its presence has been assisting in the strengthening of the trades south of Fiji. At this stage model guidance has the TD/TC moving south-west into a broader trough just east of New Caledonia, and this region is expected to strengthen E/SE winds within our swell window from late Saturday through Sunday and early Monday before the pattern ultimately begins to weaken as a Tasman high shifts to the east.

This is expected to generate a  quality E’ly swell that’ll build slowly throughout Monday, before kicking up more strongly into Tuesday and then easing Wednesday. At this stage we’re looking at 3ft to maybe 4ft surf across much of SE Qld and Far Northern NSW at the height of the activity - probably Tuesday lunchtime or afternoon - with smaller surf south of about Ballina or Yamba.

The only concerns during this time frame are the winds. As the Tasman high tracks eastwards through the first half of the new week, an approaching front will strengthen northerly winds along the East Coast. 

Monday should be quite fine in most areas with early light winds and moderate sea breezes (E/SE in the north, E’ly across the North Coast and E/NE across the Mid North Coast), but Tuesday is where we’re at risk of the northerly spoiling the party. This is more likely to affect southern regions - i.e. anywhere south of Yamba - so there’s a chance that SE Qld may do OK throughout this period (particularly the Sunshine Coast over the Gold Coast, as it'll be located further north, away from the strongest pressure gradients). 

However the wind direction will certainly swing to the northern quadrant in all areas at some point, and it certainly doesn’t take much strength to ruin things, especially on the points.

What I’m hoping for is (1) an early window of light variable winds in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld on Tuesday morning, before the northerlies develop, and (2) a temporary wind swing to the NW on Wednesday morning before northerlies redevelop during the day. A westerly change is expected in the southern NSW region on Wednesday and this may influence the coast up to the Mid North Coast but we’ll have to hone in on the specifics in Monday’s update.

Also on the cards is a local N’ly windswell for SE Qld sometime around Wednesday too, just to throw some southbound peaks into the mix. But no great size is expected from this source. 

Beyond Wednesday, it looks like we’ve got a major southerly change due in the wake of this east swell, with Thursday on target for strengthening southerly winds and building southerly swells that’ll probably persist through Friday and most of next weekend thanks to a sustained, vigorous frontal passage through the Southern Tasman Sea. More on this on Monday.