South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 26th June)

Best Days: Entire period from Monday thru' next weekend: series of small to moderate, long period south swells for Northern NSW with generally good winds (except late Wed/early Thurs at this stage). 

Recap: Small waves Thursday with average conditions. A small new E’ly swell pushed through this morning with 2-3ft sets in SE Qld and smaller waves south of Byron. However local winds have rendered most locations quite ordinary.

This weekend (June 27 - 28)

Not a great weekend ahead. Poor winds will significantly limit surfing opportunities across the northern region, and with only small swells on offer there won’t be much surf to get excited about.

The current E’ly groundswell will slowly ease from Saturday morning onwards (maybe some early 2-3ft sets at open beaches in the north at first), and a small southerly windswell advancing along the coast - in the lee of the established southerly airstream - will provide small junky waves to south facing beaches in Northern NSW. 

A momentary strengthening of the trades SW of New Caledonia should whip up a small trade swell for the weekend however its effects will probably only be felt on the Sunshine and Gold Coasts (perhaps some 2-3ft sets later Saturday and early Sunday). Local winds in SE Qld will be generally moderate to fresh SE on Saturdsay, but with pockets of early light SW winds. On the whole, only the semi-exposed points will offer anything rideable. Light winds are expected Sunday.

South of about Ballina or Yamba, winds should be light and variable all weekend but we’re looking at a smaller percentage of size form each swell source. So, expect wave heights to max out about 2ft on Saturday with smaller surf into Sunday as the swell eases.

The only possible source of new energy over the weekend for Northern NSW (besides a minor trade pulse in the Far North) is a minor southerly groundswell sometime around Sunday, originating from a zonally-aligned front passing through the Southern Tasman Sea tonight. I’m doubtful we’ll see much more than inconsistent 1-2ft waves at south swell magnets (and in actual fact it could be even smaller) but it’s worth noting its minor potential.

Next week (June 29 onwards)

The trades are expected to muscle up within SE Qld’s E/NE swell window on Sunday which should slowly build wave heights from this direction through Monday and Tuesday. It’s not expected to be very large, but exposed beaches - particularly the Sunshine Coast - should see occasional 2ft+ sets at times, with smaller waves on the Gold Coast and then south of the border. 

Elsewhere, and we’ve got a succession of very strong low/front combos sweeping through Northern NSW’s south swell window from Saturday through until next weekend (at least). Although they won’t generate large waves for the East Coast, the swell periods will be strong and the surf will be quite punchy.

As alluded to in Wednesday’s notes, each of these swells will be spaced about two days apart, with smaller conditions between them. The timing’s not 100% yet, but on the balance it looks like being a peak sometime around Monday, Wednesday and Friday - however the backside of each pulse shouldn’t drop too much in size. 

As for local winds, aside from late Wednesday and/or early Thursday when we may see a local trough induce a shallow southerly flow about the coast, winds should generally be light offshore most days. 

So, at this stage Monday’s looking pretty strong with south facing beaches picking up inconsistent 3ft+ sets at times by the afternoon (may be undersized early morning), with much smaller waves elsewhere due to the swell direction. Don't expect much, if any of this swell to make it north of the border.

This swell will then ease slowly through Tuesday and early Wednesday ahead of the next long period swell (originating from an even stronger low south of Tasmania late Monday) that’s due to arrive late Wednesday. At this stage the storm looks less favourably aligned up stronger core wind speeds will generate larger swell periods (18-20 seconds) and this should keep eave heights in a similar size range at south facing beaches for the late session - however the timing on this isn’t 100% so Thursday morning may end up seeing the biggest waves. Also, keep in mind though that late Wednesday and early Thursday currently looks like it’ll see the diciest wind of the week. 

Easing swells are then expected later Thursday and early Friday ahead of another strong front through the lower Tasman Sea that’ll whip up a fresh south swell for late Friday (peaking into Saturday). At this stage we can probably expect a similar size range as per the first two swells, but we’ll take a closer look at this on Monday’s updated data.

Just a side note: our surf model doesn't seem to be picking up these small, long period south swells very well and is consequently undercalling prospective surf heights (IMO). However I'll have a better idea on surf size on Monday - if the storm track trends a little more zonal than is currently modeled we may see a size downgrade.

Beyond Friday, it looks like further strong fronts will maintain strong southerly swell energy through next weekend. However, for much of the long term forecast period our eastern swell window looks relatively inactive, which is somewhat expected at this time of the year. Have a great weekend, see ya Monday!