South Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 26th February)

Best Days: Mid Coast tomorrow, novelty waves Friday, South Coast mid-late morning through early afternoon South Coast

Recap

Great waves at swell magnets yesterday on the South Coast and clean all day, while the Mid Coast was tiny to flat.

This morning a strong W'ly change has kicked up a stormy 2-3ft of windswell on the Mid Coast, while the South Coast was much smaller and only OK in protected spots early.

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This week and weekend (Mar 1 - 4)

Today's stormy swell has been generated by a strong mid-latitude low pushing in across us, with the low continuing east through this afternoon and evening.

With this the swell across the Mid Coast will back off into tomorrow, but some reinforcing mid-period energy generated in the Bight should keep the surf up around 2ft+.

The South Coast will see a stormy increase in swell this afternoon, peaking tomorrow morning to 3ft to occasionally 4ft off Middleton.

This swell will ease through the afternoon as some more distant SW groundswell fills in, generated the last two days by a broad polar frontal system passing under WA and the Bight.

We should see this swell, and a longer-period less consistent swell from earlier stages of this frontal progression keeping Middleton around 3ft through Friday and Saturday morning, though less consistent before easing during the day Saturday.

Winds will be great for the Mid Coast tomorrow, with a dawn S/SE tending SE breeze, back to the S/SE into the afternoon. The South Coast will remain poor.

Friday is the pick for the South Coast as winds swing E/NE-NE through the morning creating peaky but improving conditions ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

The Mid Coast will also be clean but back to 1-1.5ft.

Unfortunately from the weekend we're due to see persistent onshore winds develop across the South Coast, holding most of next week.

This will be linked to first a weak front moving in Saturday morning followed by a strong stubborn high pressure ridge sitting in the Bight.

The weak front will bring S/SW winds to both coasts Saturday, and then S/SE winds Sunday as the high moves in with a small leftover swell.

It will also produce some small S/SW swell for Monday but only to 2ft to occasionally 3ft and with SE tending S/SE winds. The Mid Coast will likely see teaser 1ft sets Sunday afternoon and Monday from the weak but favourable frontal activity.

Longer term the setup doesn't really look to break down properly until later next weekend, but we'll confirm this Friday.