Great period ahead in the Ments
Nias, Mentawai, South Sumatra forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tue 3rd Jun)
Best Days: Every day over the coming period
This week and weekend (Jun 3 - 8)
A good pulse of reinforcing SW groundswell yesterday should be starting to ease slowly across the region and will continue to drop away through tomorrow and into Thursday morning.
Our new long-range but large SW groundswell due for Friday and Saturday is still on track with the vigorous polar frontal progression firing up south-east of South Africa and Madagascar coming in as forecast and confirmed by satellite observations.
This swell should build strongly through Friday and reach a peak later in the day to 6-8ft at exposed spots in the Ments, with the possibility of the odd bigger bomb. Nias will be a touch smaller while South Sumatra can expect more size in the 8ft+ range at exposed breaks.
Winds are due to tend variable for this swell opening up plenty of options out of the brunt of the swell.
A drop in size is on the cards for Saturday but a reinforcing medium-large SW groundswell on Sunday should stop wave heights really dropping below 6ft at exposed spots.
Next Monday onwards (Jun 9 onwards)
Another large pulse of groundswell is due early next week but this will be more from the S/SW and be a lot more consistent than Friday and Saturday's swell.
This will be due to it being generated by a tight and intense low pushing up through the Central Indian Ocean, aiming a fetch of gale to severe-gale SW winds towards us. This system will push fairly north into the Indian Ocean (closer to us) helping to reduce the amount of swell decay and also increase the consistency.
A peak in size is due through Monday afternoon to 6-8ft in the Ments, with slightly less size around Nias and the odd bigger bomb in Southern Sumatra with light variable winds from the S/SE.
A drop in size should occur into Tuesday and Wednesday, with another new large S/SW groundswell on the cards for Thursday but we'll discuss this in more detail on Thursday.
Mentawai Forecast
Nias Forecast
South Sumatra Forecast
Comments
Craig models showing 10 -12 foot now for Sat in South Sumatra. Jeepers creepers
Looks to be combining the easing S/SW groundswell and new SW groundswell into the afternoon Friday (check the Advanced swell trains). I'd say it be more in the 8ft+ range still with 10ft bombs at exposed spots.