Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 21st Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small leftovers Sat with light winds tending NE in the a’noon
• Building NE swell Sun PM though with freshening NE winds
• Possibly some flukey S swell at S magnets Sun PM, easing Mon AM
• Small fun E swells Mon/Tues with a S’ly change Mon, easing Tues
• More typical summer surf Wed/Thurs with a blend of E/NE and NE swells under NE winds
• Possibly an increase in better quality E/NE swell late next week into the weekend as tropical low drifts down the Coral Sea- still low confidence this far out- check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

Leftover mostly S/SE swell to 3ft was clean briefly in the morning under light winds before a S’ly change pushed through, blowing out most spots. We did see swell kick to 4ft at S facing beaches, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter although conditions were less than ordinary. Winds have backed off overnight and we’ve got some leftover S’ly bump despite light SW winds which are now tending S through SE as the morning progresses and should clock around further E through E/NE as the day goes on. Size has eased a notch to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks and we should see some surfable but mediocre waves through the day. 

Still a bit scrappy but surfable options this morning

This weekend (Feb 22 - 23)

No great change to the weekend outlook. High pressure has moved into the Tasman and sits there over the weekend. It’s quite a strong high (expected to strengthen from 1025 to 1030 hPa) with a typical wind signature for this time of year- mod/fresh SE winds in the sub-tropics, tending to NE winds in temperate NSW. The monsoon trough is still active with a tropical low off the N.QLD coast and lows in the South Pacific through the Island chains. Medium term surf potential rests on these tropical lows, with the supporting tradewind belt supplying plenty of energy in the interim, focussed on the sub-tropics short term.

Surf wise for Sat it’s looking bland with a low energy mix of S/SE-E swells to 1-2ft. If you’re really keen, get in early with a good groveller or big board before winds get up from the NE during the day. Early light land breezes will see the cleanest conditions.

Tiny again to start Sun morning with a briefer window of light winds before N/NE winds reach mod/fresh paces. That should see, along with winds in the Northern Tasman a small boost in short period swells from the NE-E/NE up to 2ft, possibly a hair bigger in the a’noon.

Models are showing a faint signal of S groundswell from a zonal fetch passing through the far lower Tasman. This may show a few 2ft sets at reliable S magnets Sun a’noon- not worth burning fuel over.

Next week (Feb 24 onwards)

Over the weekend and into next week, we’ll see a broad wind field across the tropics and extending into the Northern Tasman and out through the South Pacific corridor. This will be book ended by tropical low pressure, which may form tropical cyclones. At this stage it seems most likely the South Pacific lows will scoot away to the SE (even if forming TC’s) which renders their swell generating production negligible. Of course, any slowing or stalling changes the equation and sets up conditions for E'ly groundswell- check back Mon for latest updates there.

The North QLD/Coral Sea low does have more potential, although GFS latest model run suggests a coastal crossing in North QLD. 

Thats the broad context for the week, with major uncertainty surrounding the fate of tropical low pressure, particularly in the Coral Sea.

As a minimum, we’ll see some workable E-E/NE swell through Mon-Wed from the E’ly flow we just mentioned. We should see 2-3ft surf Mon, likely to pulse up and down through Tues and Wed depending on how the trade flow behaves. 

Early NW winds Mon will be replaced by S’lies as a trough pushes a change up the coast before stalling. Current modelling shows the change in before dawn across the Illawarra, nosing into Sydney early morning, a little later on the Central Coast and stalling before it gets to the Hunter.

That offers surfable options favouring northern areas.

The trough and local Sly winds Tues should generate a small amount of local windswell adding into the E’ly mix, in the 2 occ. 3ft range. S’ly winds at mod paces through the day with best winds early. 

Early light winds mid-week offer clean conditions before a developing N-NE flow looks to add some local NE windswell into the mix, likely extending into Thurs and possibly peaking Fri as winds freshen in advance of a trough. 

That should bring a S’ly change next weekend and another flush of short range S swell through Sat, possibly easing Sun.

As far as more significant swells go, everything depends on the fate of the North QLD low. ECMWF has the low drifting slowly southwards through the Coral Sea into the wide open South Pacific slot next weekend which puts quality E-E/NE swell on the table, as early as next weekend. GFS has a coastal crossing which effectively eliminates it as a source of swell. 

Keep tabs on below the line commentary (esp in the QLD notes!).

If not, we’ll revisit on Mon and see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!