Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (updated on Fri Feb 21st)

This weekend and next week (Feb20-Feb28)

Central QLD: Lot's of surf days ahead

Great fun waves today.

No great change to the weekend outlook. High pressure has moved into the Tasman and sits there over the weekend. It’s quite a strong high (expected to strengthen from 1025 to 1030 hPa) with a typical wind signature for this time of year- mod/fresh SE winds in the sub-tropics, tending to NE winds in temperate NSW. The monsoon trough is still active with a tropical low off the N.QLD coast and lows in the South Pacific through the Island chains. Medium term surf potential rests on these tropical lows, with the supporting tradewind belt supplying plenty of energy in the interim, focussed on the sub-tropics.

Expect continuing fun waves over the weekend.

Over the weekend and into next week, we’ll see a broad wind field across the tropics and extending into the Northern Tasman and out through the South Pacific corridor. This will be book ended by tropical low pressure, which may form single or dual tropical cyclones. At this stage it seems most likely the South Pacific lows will scoot away to the SE (even if forming TC’s) which renders their swell generating production negligible.

The North QLD/Coral Sea low does have more potential, although GFS latest model run suggests a coastal crossing in North QLD. 

That's the broad context for the week, with major uncertainty surrounding the fate of tropical low pressure, particularly in the Coral Sea.

As a minimum, we’ll see some workable E’ly tradeswells through next week, with surf  subject to subtle ups and downs depending on peturbations in the E’ly trade flow. 

As far as more significant swells go, everything depends on the fate of the North QLD low. ECMWF has the low drifting slowly southwards through the Coral Sea into the wide open South Pacific slot next weekend which puts quality E’ly swell on the table, sizeable too,  as early as late next week (Thurs, Fri more likely). GFS has a coastal crossing which effectively eliminates it as a source of swell, although a persistent trade flow will continue to hold fun sized E’ly swells.

Keep tabs on below the line commentary over the weekend (in QLD thread) in case something dramatic pops up.

If not, we’ll revisit on Mon and see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!