Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 5th September)

This week through next (Sep 6 - 13)

Our inconsistent S/SW groundswell pulsed into yesterday afternoon, easing through this morning, and we’ve got a secondary reinforcing S/SW swell due into tomorrow but under the model forecasts again and more to 6ft across Bali magnets, smaller to the west.

We then look at the large, mid-period S/SW swell for the weekend, with the northward projecting frontal system currently impacting Western Australia.

It’s producing large onshore surf across most locations with it continuing up towards us for the weekend, building later Saturday and then peaking Sunday morning.

The reinforcing pulses of energy for early to mid-next week are now looking a bit better, but south in direction. They'll be generated by following stronger frontal systems on the backside of the system currently pushing across Western Australia, with the best due on Wednesday. This looks moderate + in size but inconsistent, with locations further west missing out a bit.

Following this it’s down, down, down with no major swell generating storms expected into the middle of the month. More on this Tuesday.

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The Maldives has seen a slow easing trend of SE trade-swell with some new energy due to start filling in from later tomorrow but more so over the weekend.

This will be thanks to a broad fetch of E/SE-SE trades developing south-east of us, persisting most of the period, with a slight surge towards the region tomorrow likely to generate the strongest pulse of size for later Sunday and Monday.

There’ll be further ebbs and pulses during the week, with the surf being mostly moderate + in size, only starting to ease next Friday as the trade fetch relaxes.

The next round of S’ly swell is likely next weekend from a strengthening polar front to the west of the Heard Island region early next week. More on this Tuesday.

Eastern Indonesia:.

Reinforcing S/SW groundswell tomorrow to an inconsistent 6ft across exposed breaks.

Large, mid-period S/SW swell building later Saturday, peaking Sunday morning to 8ft across exposed breaks, slowly easing into next week.

Moderate + sized reinforcing S/SW groundswell for Wednesday to 6ft across exposed breaks, smaller into Thursday.

Moderate to fresh E/SE-SE trades, lighter and more variable each morning. Strengthening E/SE trades tomorrow and further on the weekend, weakening next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Inconsistent S/SW groundswell tomorrow to 4-6ft across the exposed breaks.

Moderate sized mid-period S’ly swell through tomorrow and the weekend, easing slowly next week.

Moderate + sized mid-period S’ly swell for Sunday to 6ft across exposed breaks, easing next week.

Smaller, inconsistent S’ly groundswell for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning to 4-5ft.

Strong S/SE-SE trades over the coming days, weakening slowly across northern locations during the weekend and next week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Building SE trade-swell later tomorrow, further Saturday, peaking Sunday through Monday to 4-5ft+ across exposed locations (smaller Male). Reinforcing SE pulses to 4-5ft through most of next week, easing Friday.

Moderate W-W/NW across northern/central locations (weaker on the weekend), freshening from the W Tuesday onwards.

More variable winds across the southern atolls, taking a S’ly tendency into next week.