Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Spike in S swell Sun PM, eases Mon
• NE windswell Tues PM, holding Wed AM before S’ly change in the a’noon
• New spike in S swell later Wed, peaking Thurs AM as front pushes through, easing Fri late 
• Tiny waves over the weekend
• More small NE windswell Tues next week

Recap

NE windswell built through Sat with some 4 footers on offer in the a’noon. Sunday saw a window of clean 4ft surf before S’ly winds kicked in, although winds were lighter and eased faster than forecast. Today is seeing small S swell which was generated yesterday, easing into the 2ft range with easing S/SE winds now tending NE.

This week and next week (Jan16 - Jan27)

We’re in a bit of Groundhog Day pattern with another moderate high (1027hPa) moving into the Tasman, directing onshore winds across the Eastern Tasmania. These winds are tending NE before a stiff S’ly change Wed as a trough pushes through, tied to a front and low in the lower Tasman. 

In the short run and increasing NE winds generate a small NE winds swell reaching 2-3ft through tomorrow a’noon with mod/fresh N-NE winds.

Expect 2-3ft surf Wed morning from this source before winds tend NW-W/NW then ESE then fresh S’ly (later in the day) as a trough/front push across Tasmania.

A proximate fetch of S-SSW winds generates a rapid spike in S swell for later Wed into Thurs - up into the 4-5ft range early before easing during the day as the front moves rapidly away to the NE. 

Front brings spike of S swell later Wed into Thurs

That will leave small S’ly leftovers on Fri with light winds as a new high pressure cell drifts over the Island. Not much more than 2ft at S facing beaches, easing during the day.

Light winds are expected over the Weekend as the high drifts over and to the SE of the state with a small flush of S swell Sat as a front passes well to the south seeing some 2ft sets. This will ease back Sun with tiny surf expected and light onshore E’ly winds.

Into the new week and things start small with no major swells and leftover 1ft surf through Mon. 

By Tues, as high pressure moves out into the Tasman we should see some workable NE windswell start to develop, up into the 2-3ft range under current modelling. 

Wed should see workable NE windswell peak before a change- as a trough or low forms off the Tasmanian coast.

This may see a spike in S swell later Wed, or Thurs but any call is low confidence this far out.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.