Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing ESE swell early next week with more favourable winds
• Small fun SE-ESE swell Tues PM, extending into Wed with light  winds
• NE windswell building Fri PM, peaking Sat, easing Sun with winds switching W-SW before a S’ly change
• Small S swell Sun PM, eases Mon
• Small summer surf on offer next week

Recap

Plenty of fun surf over he weekend with E swell hanging in the 3ft range Sat with light S’ly winds. Sunday eased into the 2ft range with light winds and today has maintained fun 2-3ft surf with early variable winds tending NW before a late, light S’ly change as a trough moved NE of the state.

This week and next week (Jan9 - Jan19)

We currently have a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea, with continuing instability across the tropics in the wake of an active, monsoon pattern. High pressure is expected to drift south of Tasmania this week, with a typical Summe wind pattern becoming established. Remnants of low pressure near New Zealand are offering up minor fetches out of Cook Strait (currently) and near the South Island which will supply a few small pulses of swell this week.  NE fetches develop later in the week as high pressure moves out into the Tasman.

In the short run and the high pressure ridge re-sets through Tues, bringing a mod S to SE flow through the day which extends into Wed. Both mornings should see a window of lighter SW winds before the S-SE flow kicks in. 

Through tomorrow we’ll see leftover, mid period E/SE swell hold in the 2ft range at open beaches, smaller elsewhere and likely easing a notch in the a’noon.

Wed is expected to see a nice little boost in E swell from the Cook Strait fetch today with size in the 2ft range on the sets, slightly bigger 2-3ft at exposed magnets. We should see winds veer more E/NE-NE Wed as the high pressure ridge weakens and the high moves further into the Tasman.

Expect a tiny day Thurs before NE windswell starts to build Fri as high pressure sit near New Zealand. We should see surf build into the 2-3ft range during Fri a’noon under mod/fresh NE winds.

That building trend continues into Sat as the fetch off the South Coast and down into Bass Strait intensifies (see below) with surf building from 3ft+ to 4-5ft during the day with continuing mod/fresh NE-NNE winds.

Well positioned fetch sees NE windswell peak Sat

Winds shift Sun as a trough approaches, shifting winds WSW-SW then S-SSE during the day. There should be a window of opportunity for clean NE windswell in the 4ft range as winds swing before S’lies blow it out, with some new S’ly windswell in the a’noon.

Into next week and S swell fades out quickly Mon as the trough moves away with a lingering E-ESE fetch holding some weak 2ft surf through Mon/Tues as a new high slips south of the state.

Looks like small, grovel surf will then pad out most of next week with some tropical developments not likely to impact Tasmania until next weekend, if at all.

Check back Wed and we’ll have a fresh look at it.