Current model runs suggest the low is further north, and unlikely to exit the coast until late Sun evening or even early Mon. The fetch is now no longer aimed into the Tasmanian swell window so the swell due Sun/Mon, in effect, has been downgraded to almost nothing.
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/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2021/11/19/tiny-weekend-ahead-some-potential-ne-windswell
freeride76
Friday, 19 November 2021
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2021/11/17/juicy-ene-swell-ahead-low-moves-gippsland-coast
freeride76
Wednesday, 17 November 2021
Weak fronts are below the country and an inland low is tracking across from WA, tied to the continuing pattern of interior troughiness which is associated with a developing La Nina pattern. This pattern, which has been with us for most of the last few weeks is favourably disposed towards Tasmania for swell production, albeit with some periods of unfavourable winds ahead.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2021/11/15/active-period-ahead-s-and-large-stormy-e-swells
freeride76
Monday, 15 November 2021
An interior low approaches the coast Sun, moving offshore from the Gippsland Coast and intensifying the NE infeed during the day.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2021/11/12/wintry-cold-fronts-s-swell-pulses-mon
freeride76
Friday, 12 November 2021
The next cold front is tied to a complex, mid-latitude low and sees gales sweeping up from the Southern Ocean adjacent to Tasmania on Monday.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2021/11/10/wintry-conditions-and-s-swells-ahead
freeride76
Wednesday, 10 November 2021
The low forming just to the E of Tasmania overnight sees fresh SW to S’ly winds develop through the day, with a quick rise in S swell expected through the day.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2021/11/08/s-swell-pulses-ahead-some-wintry-wly-winds
freeride76
Monday, 8 November 2021
That leads to a couple of days of small, weak surf before the low shifts East of Tasmania on Thursday.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2021/11/05/ne-swell-sat-easing-quickly-through-sun
freeride76
Friday, 5 November 2021
With reinforcing high pressure now in the Tasman Sea, we’re on track for another round of NE windswell through Sat, as the pressure gradient gets tightened by an approaching trough complex and winds freshen in the East Tasmanian swell window.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2021/11/03/more-ne-swell-incoming-the-weekend-and-towards
freeride76
Wednesday, 3 November 2021
This sees the next round of NE windswell building through Sat as the N’ly fetch freshens adjacent to the Island and extends up the Far South Coast during the day.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2021/11/01/chunky-pulses-ne-windswell-coming-week-and
freeride76
Monday, 1 November 2021
A much stronger intensification of the fetch occurs Wed, as strong to low end gale NE winds develop off Bass Strait, extending up off the Gippsland Coast.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2021/10/29/storm-force-low-moves-away-rapidly-during-sat
freeride76
Friday, 29 October 2021
No change to the headline feature: another robust low forming in a trough line East of Tasmania. It does seem to be running early, with gales to storm force winds now occurring out of Bass Strait through the early afternoon and severe gales expected to form adjacent to the East Coast overnight.
