Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed April 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Weak NE windswell building late Wed, peaking Thu with light N winds (possibly still lingering fresh NE), holding Fri AM with N winds
• Small NE windswell Sat with W/NW tending SW winds
• Inconsistent SE groundswell Thu, easing slowly Fri
• Tiny/flat from Sun-Wed
• Small increase in E/NE swell Thurs/Fri

Recap

Small amounts of NE windswell have built through the day with some fun 2ft sets and light/mod N winds. Surf from this source is expected to peak through tomorrow in the 2-3ft range.

This week and next week (Apr 27 - May 6)

No great change to the f/cast. 

A large 1029 hPa high pressure system is sitting smack bang in the middle of the Southern Tasman Sea in a deepening phase, with a series of tropical troughs in the Northern Coral Sea beginning to expand Tradewinds through the tropics.

Those Tradewinds will be too far north for Tas at least in the short term but increasing NE winds off the NSW South Coast will see surf peak around 2-3ft+ through Thurs. This swell should now last through Thurs before easing later Fri as N’ly winds maintain the fetch.

Useful fetch off NSW South Coast generates NE windswell Thurs/Fri

Mod/fresh NE winds Thurs, will tend N’ly through Fri.

The weekend sees easing NE windswell with some 2ft leftovers Sat, clean early before a trough brings a S’ly change in the morning.

W’ly winds will iron out surf on Sun and tiny/flat conditions will extend into next week, possibly until Thurs.

As mentioned at the start of the f/cast an extensive tradewind belt with embedded sub-tropical troughs and lows will generate plenty of E swell for the East Coast of NSW. Some of that swell will finally filter down to Tasmania’s East Coast.

We’ll see some small E/NE swell possibly through Thurs and into Fri in the 2ft range, with some bigger 3ft sets.

Friday may see a spike in new S swell depending on a trough/low forming off the South Coast. There is substantial model divergence on that, so lets revisit on Friday and see how’s it’s shaping up.

See you then.