A tight pressure gradient between the low and a dual-centred high moving through the Bight is creating low end gales and strong winds on the SW flank of the low and generating S’ly swells up the Eastern seaboard, favouring NSW for most size. The low lingers in the Tasman this week sending some small E/NE swell to NETas before more S swell pulses next week.
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The front interacts with the trough to form a surface low off the North Coast but consistent with Fridays notes the surface low is expected to rapidly move away towards New Zealand later Wed into Thurs, with a short spike in swell for NETas. More small S swell pulses are expected in the medium term.
No swell sources for the weekend so we’re looking at tiny surf across the weekend with just a slight increase in minor S swell Sunday, no more than 1ft though.
High pressure moves into the Tasman as we end the week with a dominant role into next week , before a front and possible low brings another strong S’ly surge with an accompanying S swell next week.
A 996 hPa low just off the coast and a 1034 hPa high in the Bight is creating a very tight pressure gradient with subsequent severe gales and an L-XL S swell event for NSW, with smaller but still significant S swell expected for Tasmania.
Sunday looks more dynamic as a low forms to the NE of the state and a S’ly fetch extending to the south of the Island generate new S swell.
A much stronger cold outbreak looks poised to spawn a major Tasman Low Sun/Mon with the seasons first serious S-SE swell expected.
We should see some small S swell later in the week as a minor front/low pushes into the Tasman before a more substantial S swell event develops late in the weekend/early next week on the back of a cold outbreak and potential deep low in the Tasman.
The weekend will become small and slow, with some new, inconsistent NE swell due next week.
A broad trough of low pressure is expected to bud a surface low near New Caledonia over the short term, generating more quality E-E/NE swell as the low drifts through the South Pacific slot and into the Tasman.