The synoptic pattern over and surrounding Australia still has a strong La Niña signature with troughy low pressure areas in the Tasman Sea and an active monsoon trough across Northern Australia. High pressure on the other side of New Zealand is cradling areas of low pressure aimed at NSW and SEQLD with the Coral Sea adjacent to the CQ swell window offering up very weak pressure gradients and swell generating winds.
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A troughy pattern exists through the Coral Sea to Northern Tasman down to the South Coast with the remnants of TC 10P (named by JTWC but remained a cyclone for less than a day) drifting in a SW direction from out near New Caledonia as a weak sub-tropical low. A diffuse monsoon low in the Coral Sea remains weak and is expected to head back inland towards the North tropical coast this week.
In the Coral Sea a depression on the end of the Monsoon Trough is organising with a high likelihood of forming a tropical cyclone (TC Freddy) - this is looking like a handy swell producer for the region although no real size is expected as the system weakens as the swell producing fetch moves into the swell window.
No great change to the outlook with plenty of rideable surf expected. High pressure remains anchored in places at Tasmanian latitudes with reinforcing cells maintaining a high pressure ridge along the QLD coast. Abutting this ridge is a series of monsoonal lows, which are enhancing windspeeds through the CQ swell window.
No great change to the outlook with plenty of rideable surf expected. A high moving into the Tasman is bolstering tradewind flows in the Coral Sea and supplying plenty of surf in the 1-2ft range across CQ under mod/fresh SE winds.
Nothing complicated about the f/cast for CQ over the weekend and into next week. The Coral Sea proximate to CQ develops a 15-20knot tradewind coverage today and extending into next week and that will see a steady drumbeat of small, fun waves.
That will see a short/medium term pattern of onshore winds and small summer surf becoming established over the weekend as weak Tradewinds set up in the Coral Sea. Tradewinds next week and a monsoonal low suggest plenty of E swell.
We currently have a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea, with continuing instability across the tropics in the wake of an active, monsoon pattern. High pressure is expected to drift south of Tasmania this week, with a typical Summer wind pattern becoming established. Remnants of low pressure near New Zealand are offering up minor fetches out of Cook Strait (currently) and near the South Island which are outside the CQ swell window.
Barely rideable surf this weekend and then tiny/flat for most of next week
We may see a brief spike in swell this weekend as a low forms off the North QLD coast, seeing a brief flaring of SE-ESE winds along the Capricorn Coast and extending into the Coral Sea.