In Wednesday’s forecast I discussed a potential NE cyclone swell.
Primary tabs
We have a nice round of east swell on the way, generated by a sub-topical low positioned well NE of New Zealand over the weekend. And a cyclone swell too!
Looks like a weekend of fresh southerly winds, and a summery mix of S/SE and E’ly swells.
E’ly swell trains should bump up a notch during Wed and into Thurs as Tradewinds strengthen a notch around a weak trough/Easterly dip SW of New Caledonia early next week. Even though this is a downgrade from the retrograding low we saw on Wednesday’s model runs it should still supply some fun mid period E’ly swell in the 3ft range during this period.
High pressure is now drifting over New Zealand with multiple trough areas through the Tasman Sea, interior, and extending along the East Coast from the tropics down to temperate NSW. This is creating a moist, variable, onshore flow through the region with small surf.
A broad but weak tradewind fetch pushes south from the Coral Sea, extending out towards New Caledonia, and looping around a long trough extending from roughly Lord Howe up into the tropics.
The weak troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea is connected up with several, broad, diffuse and disconnected E’ly windfields in the region near New Caledonia and extending out into the South Pacific. Taken individually these fetches aren’t worth much, but as a collective we’ll be looking at another episode of pulsey background E swell with up and down periods and size in the 2-3ft range.
Lots of S quarter swell and wind from the same direction this weekend. With the trough extending out from the NSW South Coast towards the South Island, and a long fetch of S/SSE gales developing through the lower Tasman, there’ll be no shortage of size.
Further north from Yamba up into SEQLD, swell will be mostly generated by a broad coverage of ESE winds in the Southern Coral Sea and Northern Tasman.
Dominant high pressure sits just East of Tasmania by Mon next week, directing a strong E’ly flow, likely enhanced by the remnants of the interior low sitting off the Central/Mid-North NSW Coast.