We’ve still got the building blocks in place for large swells across most of the Eastern Seaboard, with a large high , powerful frontal system, and deepening trough (still expected to form a surface low) in the Northern Tasman currently in play.
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Spectacular charts more characteristic of late Summer/Autumn with a Cat 5 TC in the South Pacific bearing down on Vanuatu, and a powerful frontal intrusion poised to enter the Tasman Sea backed by a monster high in the Bight.
Late in the week, a combination of inland upper trough and a long angled trough extending from TC Lola remnants is expected to form a powerful surface low off the sub-tropical NSW Coast (likely between Lord Howe and Norfolk Is). As modelled, gales will produce a large E’ly quadrant swell event, with maximum size in Northern NSW, grading smaller into temperate NSW. A secondary October surprise that looks to be a major swell producer
No great change to the weekend f/cast. An approaching complex trough, front and low complex will see freshening N/NE-NE winds through Sat with only a brief period of light NW winds inshore early.
The synoptic set-up looks quite unseasonal at the moment with a 1031 hPa high drifting over NSW and a 1007 hPa low slow moving in the Tasman west of the North Island. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show broad fetch of mostly strong S-S/SE winds with some embedded low end gales reasonably well aimed for East coast swell production.
A strong front and embedded trough of low pressure are currently located just off the Gippsland Coast, expected too move NE into the Tasman and driving a strong/ near gale force S’ly flow up the NSW Coast today, reaching the QLD in the wee hours of Tuesday. There’ll be an initial burst of S swell associated with the proximate fetch, with some better quality SE-E/SE swell from a secondary intensification of the low as it becomes slow moving near New Zealand.
We’ve got more clarity on the situation next week now as a lingering trough line from the NSW South Coast down to Gippsland is expected to deepen in response to a front and form a surface low in the Tasman Sea, likely later Mon.
Moderate strength high pressure (1025 hPa) is drifting NE into the Tasman with a strong polar storm well SW of NZ exiting the swell window. That should see a settled short term before another complex trough and frontal system pushes north along the coast tomorrow with a stiff SW-S change. More rapid wind changes into and over the weekend under a very mobile, troughy pattern with some potential next week for a surface low to form in one of the trough lines.
The early arrival of today’s south swell means the short term schedule has been brought forward
A series of secondary southerly swells will fill in overnight, replacing today's energy and maintaining...