Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Mar 4th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mid range S swell Mon AM, with a steep increase in very solid longer period S swell around lunchtime- mod/fresh S-S/SE winds
• Strong peak in S swells Tues with improving winds
• Pulse of S/SE swell Wed joins existing S swell with light NW-N winds
• Easing swells Thurs and a mop up day Fri
• Not much for the weekend, just minor E/NE and leftover S swells
• May see some small S pulses next week
• Small trade swells filtering down to temperate NSW over the weekend, becoming workable next week- check back Wed for latest update

Recap

Ordinary surf Sat with small S swells and strong S’lies after a morning window of small, clean waves. Sun saw some small S swells with cleaner conditions and size topping out around 3ft at S magnets. This morning we have a new regimen of solidly building S swells as a winter-calibre low moves into the lower Tasman. Fresh/strong S/SW-S winds are blowing sideshore across S swells that are already 4-6ft at S exposed breaks and still building. We’ll see strong S-S/SE swells dominate most of this week with improving winds. Details below. 

Fun S swells Sun, much more size ahead this week

This week (Mar 4-8)

We currently have a deep, winter-calibre double-headed low traversing the lower Tasman. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a long fetch of severe gales in the southern swell window and wave buoys are all in an aggressive upwards curve as strong S swells build along the Southern NSW Coastline. We’ll see strong pulses of swell from this system until mid-week with easing leftovers until the end of the working week. To the north an extended trade-wind fetch is setting up through the week with another long playing E’ly swell event from that pattern, favouring the sub-tropics for size.

In the short run we’ll see very strong S swells through tomorrow - up in the 6-8ft range at S exposed breaks with bigger 10-12ft sets at deepwater adjacent reefs and bommies. Winds improve rapidly with light/variable breezes in the morning (likely SW across most of the region) tending to light/mod NE breezes in the a’noon. We should see a slight easing in size through the a’noon.

Those winds stay N’ly into Wed with morning W-NW breezes offering clean conditions at open and S facing beaches. Still plenty of size with 4-6ft surf at S exposed breaks, rebuilding under a fresh S/SE pulse to 5-6ft from mid/late morning. N/NE winds will freshen during the a’noon. 

Clean conditions for Thurs morning before a trough brings a S’ly tending SE change to the region by lunch-time under current modelling. Leftover S/SE swells to 3-4ft (a few bigger 5ft sets still possible) with an easing trend during the day.

Finally, Friday sees a mop-up day for S swells with a small blend of S/SE and short range S swells to 2-3ft, dropping back to 2ft or less by close of play under light winds tending NE in the a’noon. Should be a full week of waves, so good luck getting amongst it. 

This weekend (Mar 9-10)

South swells are almost all gone for the weekend so we’ll be relying on small amounts of E/NE swell filtering down from the top of the high pressure belt which starts to extend down into the Northern Tasman late this week. 

That won;’t amount too much through this weekend, likely a 1-2ft signal both days.

We should see some tiny S/SE swell leftovers into Sat morning of similar size, worth hunting around open beaches and S magnets for.

Sunday may see some traces of S swell from a zonal fetch under the continent later this week. Possibly adding some 2 occ. 3ft sets on Sunday at the most reliable S swell magnets.

Northerly winds both days with morning NW breezes offering widespread clean conditions.

Next week (Mar 11 onwards)

Fun sized E/NE trade wind swells should offer up workable 2-3ft surf for at least the first half of next week under light winds tending NE in the a’noon.

A S’ly change looks likely mid week.

We may see some small S swells wrap in from zonal fetches Sun/Mon and Tues/Wed. We’ll see how these look during the week but flukey S pulses in the 3ft range can be pencilled in Tues/Wed and Thurs/Fri.

Low pressure in the South Pacific may ramp up windspeeds across the trade-wind fetch next week suggesting stronger E quadrant swells later next week. Models have been inconsistent about the location of the low pressure and how the fetch behaves. We’ll definitely see workable E swells through most of next week, possibly ramping up later next week depending on how these potential low pressure systems play out.

Check back Wed and see how it’s shaping up. Until then, plenty of strong S swell to deal with.