TC Jasper is set to take a W’ly track with a Far North QLD coastal crossing now the most likely outcome and thus no real surf potential for temperate NSW.
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/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/12/07/back-small-mixed-bag-some-sly
freeride76
Friday, 8 December 2023
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/12/06/big-downgrade-tc-jasper-heads-qld
freeride76
Wednesday, 6 December 2023
TC Jasper has formed in water surrounding the Solomon Islands and is intensifying under favourable conditions. Most models now are suggesting a SW-W curvature as it enters the Coral Sea, with a limited surf potential compared to Mondays notes, especially for temperate NSW.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/12/04/doldrums-pattern-week-all-eyes-tc-next
freeride76
Monday, 4 December 2023
Weak high pressure in the Tasman and a trough is creating a “doldrums” type pattern of slack pressure gradients and small swells this week, with a few wind changes to negotiate. No major swells expected this week. The headline feature is a potential major tropical cyclone drifting into the Coral Sea with a poleward (southwards) track late this week, over the weekend and into next week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/11/30/fun-easing-surf-over-the-weekend-plenty
freeride76
Friday, 1 December 2023
Low pressure has moved off the coast and is slow moving, with a broad fetch of strong E’ly winds on the southern flank of the low supplying plenty of E-E/SE swell to Southern NSW (and Tasmania).
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/11/29/troughy-dynamic-pattern-keeps-active
freeride76
Wednesday, 29 November 2023
A dynamic weather event is underway as a complex inland low approaches the Far South Coast of NSW, expected to enter the Tasman Sea tomorrow. A moist NE-E/NE infeed into the low is generating plenty of rain (heaviest falls on the South Coast) and building swells from the same direction.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/11/26/tricky-dynamic-week-approaching-trough
freeride76
Monday, 27 November 2023
Another dynamic week ahead with a complex trough expected to form a surface low off the NSW South Coast mid week, details below.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/11/23/lots-little-swell-sources-popping-in-the
freeride76
Friday, 24 November 2023
Not a great deal of action likely this weekend. High pressure is straddling Tasmania with the remnants of a front lingering near New Zealand with an off-axis fetch. A coastal trough and an inland trough maintain unstable conditions with a developing N-NE flow over the weekend.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/11/21/mix-local-and-flukey-swell-sources
freeride76
Wednesday, 22 November 2023
It’s a weak synoptic pattern with no major swell sources- a passing front weakens as it traverses the Tasman, leaving an off-axis fetch parallel with New Zealand. There should be enough minor swell sources of no real quality to stay wet through the short term.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/11/19/troughy-pattern-few-small-swell-sources
freeride76
Monday, 20 November 2023
The troughy pattern remains installed into the medium term so we’re still keeping an eye out for short range features which could supply local swell sources.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/11/17/active-outlook-continues-more-long
freeride76
Friday, 17 November 2023
Strong, long period S’ly groundswell should be peaking Mon morning, before an easing trend through the day.
