Corona Open J-Bay - Forecast Update

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Dispatch

Pumping, pre-contest content has started to hit the socials with the CT scoring a great run of swell into the lead up to the first day of the Corona Open J-Bay waiting period, that being this Thursday the 13th.

Luckily we're looking at a favourable outlook into the middle to end of the waiting period after a dicey first couple of days.

Following the recent run of clean, pumping surf, a strong high pressure system is moving slowly across South Africa, bringing a couple of days of subdued frontal activity and less favourable local winds out of the north.

A fun sized, mid-period S/SW swell is due on the first day of the waiting period, but with the 'devilish' northerly morning winds, and strong afternoon easterly sea breezes, it looks to be a lay day.

Friday and Saturday will follow suit with fading surf and persistent, poor northerly winds.

The high will be moved on to the east by a flurry of strengthening frontal activity through the weekend though, with back to back lows due to generate mixed pulses of mid-period swell varying in directions from the west to south.

With Jeffrey's being tucked in hard behind Cape St Francis to the south, any swell from the west is blocked, with southerly energy coming in much better size, consistency and shape wise.

With this in mind, an initial strong frontal system moving through Sunday will generate a great fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW tending SW winds right under South Africa.

This will generate an improving SW tending S/SW mid-period swell that's expected to build Sunday afternoon with favourable W/SW winds, peaking overnight and easing Monday morning from 5-6ft on the sets.

Unfortunately the next approaching front will bring average N/NW winds as the swells eases Monday morning, improving into the afternoon as winds shift W/SW-SW. Tuesday looks smaller with early NW winds due to shift W/SW again through the morning as a front passes through.

With this outlook we may see half days run both Sunday and Monday afternoons.

Into Wednesday, a possible large, reinforcing pulse of S groundswell is likely off the backside of the frontal system moving through Sunday, with a great fetch of polar S/SW gales forecast to be projected northwards early next week.

A good 5-6ft of swell is again due and with strong W/NW tending W/SW winds, providing improving conditions through the day.

There will also likely be some smaller westerly swell in the mix Wednesday, generated by a strong but unfavourably positioned low forming to the west of the country Sunday evening. At this stage we'll disregard this due to its westerly nature as well as the European model having it quite a bit weaker than the American version.

The end of the period looks to provide plenty more S'ly swell but winds may start to become less favourable again as a high starts edging in from the west. The models are still quite divergent from the middle of next week so we'll continue to watch developments play out.

All in all it's not an epic outlook but there should be moments of great surf in between more ordinary days.

Comments

jsc's picture
jsc's picture
jsc Tuesday, 11 Jul 2023 at 11:45am

Thanks, Craig - let's hope for clean SW wind conditions, NW is ok but blows up the face of the wave, learning to a lot of chatter and rough surface conditions.

Better than an onshore NE though, which we don't want at all.

Gowsa's picture
Gowsa's picture
Gowsa Tuesday, 11 Jul 2023 at 2:44pm

The WSL is overdue to score some good Contest conditions.

mpeachy's picture
mpeachy's picture
mpeachy Tuesday, 11 Jul 2023 at 3:51pm

Solid chattery waves will benefit Ewing in heats, he could glide over a cheese grater

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Tuesday, 11 Jul 2023 at 5:35pm

Damn. Not 8foot then. Although last year was 8foot plus but all the pros sat way down the point where it was closing out, reminiscent of how they approach Sunset from the inside instead of the outside.

ryder's picture
ryder's picture
ryder Tuesday, 11 Jul 2023 at 5:38pm

Is there a Heritage Round at this years event - Curren v Occy?

peppa bluey's picture
peppa bluey's picture
peppa bluey Tuesday, 11 Jul 2023 at 5:50pm

Can we somehow get Parko back for a heat or two?

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Tuesday, 11 Jul 2023 at 6:52pm

memorable heat & waves in 2017


Shaun Tomson former world champion on commentary

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Tuesday, 11 Jul 2023 at 7:24pm

Toledo blowing up and waves pumping, love it how it just rolls into double ups.

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Tuesday, 11 Jul 2023 at 7:34pm

JJF layback slash, then old school cutback & fade into the speedy barrel section

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Tuesday, 11 Jul 2023 at 7:13pm

Another great heat & waves in 2019

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Tuesday, 11 Jul 2023 at 9:00pm

thanks for another proffessional surf report Craig

yahabo's picture
yahabo's picture
yahabo Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 6:36am

Again, they've scheduled the event off the full moon, less than ideal tides.
Saw a youtube video with a local guy talking about how this was a huge mistake.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 7:52am

Can your provide a link....sounds interesting.

yahabo's picture
yahabo's picture
yahabo Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 12:44pm

Forecast and tide comment after 20mins

&ab_channel=NextOffshoreAdventure

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 4:50pm

Cheers, great video gives you a real feel for things.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 8:15am

There is no chance the Woz take into account things like moons / tides

seal's picture
seal's picture
seal Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 2:19pm

Surely a professional surfing outfit would know about influences of the phases of the moon and tides on the surf and program their events accordingly???
Sorry, calling WSL a professional outfit was a mistake on my part !

yahabo's picture
yahabo's picture
yahabo Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 2:45pm

LOL!
The comments on Barton's podcast were spot on. Removing Elo will change nothing. The fish rots from the head, and Elo was not the head, even though his title said so.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 7:52am

Id say they have got the call right, you have to remember they aren't just looking for a few hours of prime conditions like most surfers but looking for a whole day of good conditions.

If J-Bay works like most points with a mix of sand and rock, yeah sure very low tides often produce a window of perfect hollow conditions, but then very high tides that come with it also often get too full, which isn't ideal if your running a comp all day.

While around a new moon, you still get some tide movement and decent low tides but tides dont get as high and for as long, so you can probably keep running the comp through the high tide.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 8:23am

Pick a Jordy 10 point wave, that's how you're meant to surf JBay. His no pump bottom turns here make me feel funny. I think half the field just don't have the size/power to hold through it like him when it's good.

channel-bottom's picture
channel-bottom's picture
channel-bottom Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 11:04am

Really? Jordy safety surfs his waves. I can think of 10 other surfers I'd prefer to watch out there.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 12:30pm

Agreed not a huge fan of Jordy my picks are JJF & Toledo but Kellys still got it in these types of waves.

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 6:40pm

@channel-bottom, ..You have to be joking, surely.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 11:44am

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 3:15pm

Well it looks like the outlook is starting to possibly fall apart through the second half of the waiting period with a deepening trough squeezing against a strong high. This would bring poor winds from Wednesday. Ugly. We'll see how it pans out.

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 3:44pm

common Craig dont jinx it....been toooooo long between good contest conditions............

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 4:02pm

Thanks Craig, music to my ears. fuck the WSL

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Wednesday, 12 Jul 2023 at 5:35pm

Is Kelly in or out?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 7:54am

In.

Great White Snark's picture
Great White Snark's picture
Great White Snark Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 6:42am

When you say 5-6ft, do you mean chest to head high?

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 7:25am

I dont think so as Swellnet generally use surfers type feet, so 5-6ft is more like double overhead.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 7:55am

Yep, as Indo has said.

Great White Snark's picture
Great White Snark's picture
Great White Snark Saturday, 15 Jul 2023 at 9:04am

Cool, thanks

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 8:21am

Yesterdays video, guy does a great job.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 9:22am

14:10 contest director moon/tide talk.
"We make more money when we've got it over school holidays."

dannyz's picture
dannyz's picture
dannyz Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 12:31pm

and there’s your reason.. every decision they make is about money

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 12:45pm

His mum didn't seem happy about it lol.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 9:03am

The dynamics of the front moving in Sunday and follow up low along with a polar fetch of S/SW winds have all shifted a bit and what we're looking at is a downgrade of Sunday afternoon/Monday's swell but upgrade in the following systems.

Winds are still a little dicey thanks to the mid-latitude low bringing troughy, less stable weather but at this stage we could see the best surf through Tuesday/Wednesday.

Thursday (next week) is also a possible goer depending on the local winds which look to go northerly into the final two days of the period.

With this in mind there's a chance they run today with light morning winds and a new mid-period S/SW swell to 3-4ft. Afternoon sea breezes will be strong from the E/SE and come in late morning.

Friday and Saturday will be lay days, as likely will be Sunday thanks to the downgrade in the building swell. It is only expected to reach 2-3ft late, easing from 3ft Monday morning.

Tuesday will hopefully see building surf to a better 5-6ft, easing from a similar size Wednesday with favourable W/SW-SW winds.

Things then deteriorate from Thursday.

Ed Sloane's picture
Ed Sloane's picture
Ed Sloane Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 10:51am

Thanks Craigossssss, someone should pay you for these valuable insights.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 12:01pm

Not sounding like epic J bay unfortunately

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 11:37am

Roughly what time Aus will they look at getting a start?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 1:02pm

I think it's 3:30/4pm.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 9:36pm

Hey Craig, Logie claiming amazing waves next week. Reading your stuff, doesn’t seem so much?
Just typical Woz speak?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 14 Jul 2023 at 6:23am

Should be good Tue/Wed, much better than today and bigger so yeah, looks decent.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Friday, 14 Jul 2023 at 7:20am

Nice. Thanks Craig. Even today was nice to watch compares with 90% of surf this year. Really goes to show they just need quality locations

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 14 Jul 2023 at 7:44am

100%

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 18 Jul 2023 at 8:59am

Today and tomorrow look great for competition. We've got a strong new SW groundswell today that should peak to 6ft+ with moderate to fresh offshore winds, a little smaller tomorrow and weaker with stronger offshore winds.

Thursday will be doable but not great with early light NW winds ahead of strong E/SE sea breezes and an easing mid-period S/SW swell.