Corona Open J-Bay - Forecast Update
Pumping, pre-contest content has started to hit the socials with the CT scoring a great run of swell into the lead up to the first day of the Corona Open J-Bay waiting period, that being this Thursday the 13th.
Luckily we're looking at a favourable outlook into the middle to end of the waiting period after a dicey first couple of days.
Following the recent run of clean, pumping surf, a strong high pressure system is moving slowly across South Africa, bringing a couple of days of subdued frontal activity and less favourable local winds out of the north.
A fun sized, mid-period S/SW swell is due on the first day of the waiting period, but with the 'devilish' northerly morning winds, and strong afternoon easterly sea breezes, it looks to be a lay day.
Friday and Saturday will follow suit with fading surf and persistent, poor northerly winds.
The high will be moved on to the east by a flurry of strengthening frontal activity through the weekend though, with back to back lows due to generate mixed pulses of mid-period swell varying in directions from the west to south.
With Jeffrey's being tucked in hard behind Cape St Francis to the south, any swell from the west is blocked, with southerly energy coming in much better size, consistency and shape wise.
With this in mind, an initial strong frontal system moving through Sunday will generate a great fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW tending SW winds right under South Africa.
This will generate an improving SW tending S/SW mid-period swell that's expected to build Sunday afternoon with favourable W/SW winds, peaking overnight and easing Monday morning from 5-6ft on the sets.
Unfortunately the next approaching front will bring average N/NW winds as the swells eases Monday morning, improving into the afternoon as winds shift W/SW-SW. Tuesday looks smaller with early NW winds due to shift W/SW again through the morning as a front passes through.
With this outlook we may see half days run both Sunday and Monday afternoons.
Into Wednesday, a possible large, reinforcing pulse of S groundswell is likely off the backside of the frontal system moving through Sunday, with a great fetch of polar S/SW gales forecast to be projected northwards early next week.
A good 5-6ft of swell is again due and with strong W/NW tending W/SW winds, providing improving conditions through the day.
There will also likely be some smaller westerly swell in the mix Wednesday, generated by a strong but unfavourably positioned low forming to the west of the country Sunday evening. At this stage we'll disregard this due to its westerly nature as well as the European model having it quite a bit weaker than the American version.
The end of the period looks to provide plenty more S'ly swell but winds may start to become less favourable again as a high starts edging in from the west. The models are still quite divergent from the middle of next week so we'll continue to watch developments play out.
All in all it's not an epic outlook but there should be moments of great surf in between more ordinary days.
Comments
Thanks, Craig - let's hope for clean SW wind conditions, NW is ok but blows up the face of the wave, learning to a lot of chatter and rough surface conditions.
Better than an onshore NE though, which we don't want at all.
The WSL is overdue to score some good Contest conditions.
Solid chattery waves will benefit Ewing in heats, he could glide over a cheese grater
Damn. Not 8foot then. Although last year was 8foot plus but all the pros sat way down the point where it was closing out, reminiscent of how they approach Sunset from the inside instead of the outside.
Is there a Heritage Round at this years event - Curren v Occy?
Can we somehow get Parko back for a heat or two?
memorable heat & waves in 2017
Shaun Tomson former world champion on commentary
Toledo blowing up and waves pumping, love it how it just rolls into double ups.
JJF layback slash, then old school cutback & fade into the speedy barrel section
Another great heat & waves in 2019
thanks for another proffessional surf report Craig
Again, they've scheduled the event off the full moon, less than ideal tides.
Saw a youtube video with a local guy talking about how this was a huge mistake.
Can your provide a link....sounds interesting.
Forecast and tide comment after 20mins
&ab_channel=NextOffshoreAdventureCheers, great video gives you a real feel for things.
There is no chance the Woz take into account things like moons / tides
Surely a professional surfing outfit would know about influences of the phases of the moon and tides on the surf and program their events accordingly???
Sorry, calling WSL a professional outfit was a mistake on my part !
LOL!
The comments on Barton's podcast were spot on. Removing Elo will change nothing. The fish rots from the head, and Elo was not the head, even though his title said so.
Id say they have got the call right, you have to remember they aren't just looking for a few hours of prime conditions like most surfers but looking for a whole day of good conditions.
If J-Bay works like most points with a mix of sand and rock, yeah sure very low tides often produce a window of perfect hollow conditions, but then very high tides that come with it also often get too full, which isn't ideal if your running a comp all day.
While around a new moon, you still get some tide movement and decent low tides but tides dont get as high and for as long, so you can probably keep running the comp through the high tide.
Pick a Jordy 10 point wave, that's how you're meant to surf JBay. His no pump bottom turns here make me feel funny. I think half the field just don't have the size/power to hold through it like him when it's good.
Really? Jordy safety surfs his waves. I can think of 10 other surfers I'd prefer to watch out there.
Agreed not a huge fan of Jordy my picks are JJF & Toledo but Kellys still got it in these types of waves.
@channel-bottom, ..You have to be joking, surely.
Well it looks like the outlook is starting to possibly fall apart through the second half of the waiting period with a deepening trough squeezing against a strong high. This would bring poor winds from Wednesday. Ugly. We'll see how it pans out.
common Craig dont jinx it....been toooooo long between good contest conditions............
Thanks Craig, music to my ears. fuck the WSL
Is Kelly in or out?
In.
When you say 5-6ft, do you mean chest to head high?
I dont think so as Swellnet generally use surfers type feet, so 5-6ft is more like double overhead.
Yep, as Indo has said.
Cool, thanks
Yesterdays video, guy does a great job.
14:10 contest director moon/tide talk.
"We make more money when we've got it over school holidays."
and there’s your reason.. every decision they make is about money
His mum didn't seem happy about it lol.
The dynamics of the front moving in Sunday and follow up low along with a polar fetch of S/SW winds have all shifted a bit and what we're looking at is a downgrade of Sunday afternoon/Monday's swell but upgrade in the following systems.
Winds are still a little dicey thanks to the mid-latitude low bringing troughy, less stable weather but at this stage we could see the best surf through Tuesday/Wednesday.
Thursday (next week) is also a possible goer depending on the local winds which look to go northerly into the final two days of the period.
With this in mind there's a chance they run today with light morning winds and a new mid-period S/SW swell to 3-4ft. Afternoon sea breezes will be strong from the E/SE and come in late morning.
Friday and Saturday will be lay days, as likely will be Sunday thanks to the downgrade in the building swell. It is only expected to reach 2-3ft late, easing from 3ft Monday morning.
Tuesday will hopefully see building surf to a better 5-6ft, easing from a similar size Wednesday with favourable W/SW-SW winds.
Things then deteriorate from Thursday.
Thanks Craigossssss, someone should pay you for these valuable insights.
Not sounding like epic J bay unfortunately
Roughly what time Aus will they look at getting a start?
I think it's 3:30/4pm.
Hey Craig, Logie claiming amazing waves next week. Reading your stuff, doesn’t seem so much?
Just typical Woz speak?
Should be good Tue/Wed, much better than today and bigger so yeah, looks decent.
Nice. Thanks Craig. Even today was nice to watch compares with 90% of surf this year. Really goes to show they just need quality locations
100%
Today and tomorrow look great for competition. We've got a strong new SW groundswell today that should peak to 6ft+ with moderate to fresh offshore winds, a little smaller tomorrow and weaker with stronger offshore winds.
Thursday will be doable but not great with early light NW winds ahead of strong E/SE sea breezes and an easing mid-period S/SW swell.