Though there’s been the odd session, the European big wave season has got off to a patchy start. Two big swells at Nazare have provided only short windows of opportunity: the first swell lasted just one hour before the wind shut it down, the second one half a day.

Meanwhile, Ireland copped a below-the-belt punch from Hurricane Ophelia which swung in from the south. Ophelia brought driving wind and rain, and about six hours worth of swell from an unusual direction. County Waterford in Ireland’s south was upwards of thirty feet on the 16th of October but just a fraction of that on the 17th.

Next week, however, will see a more conventional swell sweep across west facing coastlines of Europe providing big waves from Ireland to the Azores.

The swell is a product of a storm that will form between Newfoundland and Greenland this weekend. The storm will intensify as it moves below Greenland while being cradled by a high pressure system coming off the Canadian Shield. This will establish a fetch of wind spanning half the North Atlantic aimed directly at the Irish coastline.

At left is significant wave heights for Monday night showing the swell aimed at Ireland and beyond, while at right the pressure chart shows the storm cradled in a broad high pressure system.

Forerunners of the swell will hit west-facing Irish coasts early Tuesday morning filling in through the day with the biggest waves arriving late Tuesday and early Wednesday morning.

Other European coasts will be impacted shortly thereafter with the swell hitting the northern Spanish and Portuguese coasts on Wednesday morning, and a short delay for the Bay of Biscay. Tides and winds notwithstanding, Mundaka should see the biggest waves on Wednesday afternoon.

So size? Ireland will cop the most energy with open ocean swell whittling down to 15-18 feet as it comes around the point at Mullaghmore Head. Aside from the local crew, Russell Bierke is still in Ireland and hoping to have better luck than his last session at Mullaghmore. Bierke caught just two waves and busted his board on the second.

West Aussie Zac Haynes paddling Nazare during the last swell (photo Tim Bonython)

There’s also an eager crowd assembled at Nazare awaiting this swell, among them are Ross Clarke-Jones, and West Australian Zac Haynes who’s holed up there for the season. Filmmaker Tim Bonython is also in Nazare.

There’ll be no shortage of swell with Wednesday morning seeing wave faces in the 50 foot + range lurching out of the Nazare Canyon. Winds could be tricky with a ridge of high pressure creating north-east winds that’ll get stronger through the day. The direction isn’t the most crucial factor but their strength - 25 knots is enough to throw some speedhumps into the Nazare lefts.

By Thursday morning the wind should ease enough for surfers to have a decent crack at Nazare. Swell size will be down to a more modest 30-40 feet (!), meaning some of the more adventurous paddlers may have a crack.

//STU NETTLE