Over Christmas and Boxing Days, the southern states were graced with a welcome, yet highly unseasonal south-west swell. That swell has almost entirely petered out now, with surfers in the eastern states warming up for their own run of swell. Contrary to the south-west swell, what’s unfolding in the east is in keeping with the seasons.

And yeah, if you’re reading this surf forecast from Queensland or northern NSW you may think it’s come a little late. However, those two days of waves you’ve just had are a mere entree for what’s in store. Go easy, don’t gorge yourself too soon.

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It often happens that the season’s first jumped up easterly tradeswell makes landfall within a few weeks either side of the new year. It’s only that we’re coming out of La Nina and a period of constant swell production that this current event is less noticeable. In other years it might be considered a season opener of sorts.

Those of you with good memories may recall Craig forecasting the Madden Julian Oscillation to pass northern Australia in the last week of the year, potentially setting up a round of tradeswell. That’s all come to pass with an unstable monsoon trough developing in the Coral Sea on Boxing Day, stretching from the Solomon Islands almost to the tip of NZ’s North Island.

At the same time a large, slow-moving high pressure system straddled NZ and the Tasman Sea, stabilising a fetch of easterly winds across it’s northern flank. Such a system is the bread and butter for the Gold Coast at this time of year. If it remained like this the Sunshine and Gold Coasts, plus northern NSW, would see days of 2 - 3 ft easterly tradeswell.

Instead, the monsoon trough has spawned a small low that’s travelled south, which firstly will turbocharge the tradeswell, pushing wave size into the double overhead range at the aforementioned regions. The low will then deepen and drop into the Tasman slot, obliged by the high pressure system moving east.

This second phase will bring the southern end of the coast into the fold, flushing everywhere from Agnes Waters to Eden, even Tassie’s east coast, with a new round of swell.

The swell will ebb and pulse throughout, yet there will be two fairly distinct stages: the mid-period easterly tradeswell focussed on the QLD/NSW border with lower levels making their way south, and then the swell from the deepening low, when the period will draw out and the source will be further south.

As for timing...well, as mentioned, the tradeswell bout is already under way up north, and it'll continue in the same vein, slowly ramping up in size - from 4-5 feet up to 5-6 feet - until the end of the weekend when the period will draw out and the direction will dip further south of east.

The size won't change too much on the points - what will be gained in period, will be lost in direction - though a shift to the south, even a slight shift, may allow the currents to find an extra gear. Take your paddling arms or ride a sweep killer.

Northern surfers should monitor the potential for slack winds through Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. If the wind drops, more options will open up.

As for surfers in southern NSW: The tradeswell is trickling south and can this afternoon be felt as far south as the Central Coast. Tomorrow (Friday) morning should see a more noticeable uptick in Sydney and the Illawarra, though it'll be an inauspicious start to the swell: unorganised, a little wobbly, and around 2-3ft.

Unfortunately, local surfers will have to get used to it as a nor'easterly wind regime will overlay the swell till at least Tuesday when winds slacken. If you can find some water time, maybe early mornings or inside a favourable corner, you'll be warmed up for when the low deepens and the second phase of swell kicks off.

Tuesday appears to be the arrival date, with the period jumping into double digits and direction shifting more towards straight east. At this point, surfers in the Newcastle, Sydney, Illawarra regions can expect waves in the 4-5ft range on Tuesday arcing up into the 5-6ft range on Wednesday and possibly Thursday morning before it trails off. During the Wednesday peak, it's possible that some deepwater adjacent reefs may push towards 8ft.